GARCH TIME-SERIES MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO RETAIL LIVESTOCK PRICES

This article applies recent developments in time-series modeling to analyze the retail prices of beef, pork, and chicken. Specifically, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were fitted to these data to determine if, unlike more traditional time-series models, the conditional variances of the underlying stochastic processes are nonconstant. The estimation results indicate that the constant conditional variances assumption can be rejected. Furthermore, ex post forecast intervals generated from the GARCH processes indicate that the forecasting accuracy of the estimated models has varied widely over time with substantial volatility occurring during the 1970s and early 1980s.Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: an Application to Meat Demand

This paper explores the role of structural change in systems of demand equations. Specifically, we adapt the time—varying regression framework of Lin and Teräsvirta (1994), which in turn is related to the dynamic smooth transition models introduced by Teräsvirta (1994). Unlike previous efforts at modeling structural change in demand systems, we do not impose the nature of the change to be monotonic—several non-monotonic alternatives are considered. An application is presented using the Almost Ideal Inverse Demand System (IAIDS) applied to U.S. meat demand data, 1960-2004. Results show the importance of modeling structural change and that, moreover, the best-fitting model is associated with a form of symmetric, non-monotonic structural change.Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System; Meat Demand; Structural Change; Time-Varying Regression

Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market

This study examines the empirical implications of extending the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) to include price uncertainty. Unlike previous studies, a general estimation framework that incorporates both the restrictions on structural parameters and the variance-covariance terms is developed. A new time series approach known as GARCH processes is also used to generate time-varying expectations of both the means and the variances of exogenous variables in the REH model with risk. The empirical application is with a quarterly model of the U.S. broiler industry; the results indicate that the rational expectation of price variance is an important determinant of broiler supply. Additionally, a formal test indicates that the restrictions implied by the REH cannot be rejected. The restricted model also compares favorably with an unrestricted version that uses instruments for the mean and the variance of expected prices

Assessing risks of invasion through gamete performance: farm Atlantic salmon sperm and eggs show equivalence in function, fertility, compatibility and competitiveness to wild Atlantic salmon

Adaptations at the gamete level (a) evolve quickly, (b) appear sensitive to inbreeding and outbreeding and (c) have important influences on potential to reproduce. We apply this understanding to problems posed by escaped farm salmon and measure their potential to reproduce in the wild. Farm Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are a threat to biodiversity, because they escape in large numbers and can introgress, dilute or disrupt locally adapted wild gene pools. Experiments at the whole fish level have found farm reproductive potential to be significant, but inferior compared to wild adults, especially for males. Here, we assess reproductive performance at the gamete level through detailed in vitro comparisons of the form, function, fertility, compatibility and competitiveness of farm versus wild Atlantic salmon sperm and eggs, in conditions mimicking the natural gametic microenvironment, using fish raised under similar environmental conditions. Despite selective domestication and reduced genetic diversity, we find functional equivalence in all farm fish gamete traits compared with their wild ancestral strain. Our results identify a clear threat of farm salmon reproduction with wild fish and therefore encourage further consideration of using triploid farm strains with optimized traits for aquaculture and fish welfare, as triploid fish remain reproductively sterile following escape

Cryptic choice of conspecific sperm controlled by the impact of ovarian fluid on sperm swimming behavior

Despite evidence that variation in male–female reproductive compatibility exists in many fertilization systems, identifying mechanisms of cryptic female choice at the gamete level has been a challenge. Here, under risks of genetic incompatibility through hybridization, we show how salmon and trout eggs promote fertilization by conspecific sperm. Using in vitro fertilization experiments that replicate the gametic microenvironment, we find complete interfertility between both species. However, if either species’ ova were presented with equivalent numbers of both sperm types, conspecific sperm gained fertilization precedence. Surprisingly, the species’ identity of the eggs did not explain this cryptic female choice, which instead was primarily controlled by conspecific ovarian fluid, a semiviscous, protein-rich solution that bathes the eggs and is released at spawning. Video analyses revealed that ovarian fluid doubled sperm motile life span and straightened swimming trajectory, behaviors allowing chemoattraction up a concentration gradient. To confirm chemoattraction, cell migration tests through membranes containing pores that approximated to the egg micropyle showed that conspecific ovarian fluid attracted many more spermatozoa through the membrane, compared with heterospecific fluid or water. These combined findings together identify how cryptic female choice can evolve at the gamete level and promote reproductive isolation, mediated by a specific chemoattractive influence of ovarian fluid on sperm swimming behavior

Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: an Application to Meat Demand

This paper explores the role of structural change in systems of demand equations. Specifically, we adapt the time—varying regression framework of Lin and Teräsvirta (1994), which in turn is related to the dynamic smooth transition models introduced by Teräsvirta (1994). Unlike previous efforts at modeling structural change in demand systems, we do not impose the nature of the change to be monotonic—several non-monotonic alternatives are considered. An application is presented using the Almost Ideal Inverse Demand System (IAIDS) applied to U.S. meat demand data, 1960-2004. Results show the importance of modeling structural change and that, moreover, the best-fitting model is associated with a form of symmetric, non-monotonic structural change

Elective Open Suprarenal Aneurysm Repair in England from 2000 to 2010 an Observational Study of Hospital Episode Statistics

Background: Open surgery is widely used as a benchmark for the results of fenestrated endovascular repair of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). However, the existing evidence stems from single-centre experiences, and may not be reproducible in wider practice. National outcomes provide valuable information regarding the safety of suprarenal aneurysm repair. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were extracted from English Hospital Episodes Statistics for patients undergoing elective suprarenal aneurysm repair from 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2010. Thirty-day mortality and five-year survival were analysed by logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: 793 patients underwent surgery with 14% overall 30-day mortality, which did not improve over the study period. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality included age, renal disease and previous myocardial infarction. 5-year survival was independently reduced by age, renal disease, liver disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and known metastatic solid tumour. There was significant regional variation in both 30-day mortality and 5-year survival after risk-adjustment. Regional differences in outcome were eliminated in a sensitivity analysis for perioperative outcome, conducted by restricting analysis to survivors of the first 30 days after surgery. Conclusions: Elective suprarenal aneurysm repair was associated with considerable mortality and significant regional variation across England. These data provide a benchmark to assess the efficacy of complex endovascular repair of supra-renal aneurysms, though cautious interpretation is required due to the lack of information regarding aneurysm morphology. More detailed study is required, ideally through the mandatory submission of data to a national registry of suprarenal aneurysm repair

Kinase inhibitor pulldown assay identifies a chemotherapy response signature in triple-negative breast cancer based on purine-binding proteins

UNLABELLED: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) constitutes 10%-15% of all breast tumors. The current standard of care is multiagent chemotherapy, which is effective in only a subset of patients. The original objective of this study was to deploy a mass spectrometry (MS)-based kinase inhibitor pulldown assay (KIPA) to identify kinases elevated in non-pCR (pathologic complete response) cases for therapeutic targeting. Frozen optimal cutting temperature compound-embedded core needle biopsies were obtained from 43 patients with TNBC before docetaxel- and carboplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy. KIPA was applied to the native tumor lysates that were extracted from samples with high tumor content. Seven percent of all identified proteins were kinases, and none were significantly associated with lack of pCR. However, among a large population of off-target purine-binding proteins (PBP) identified, seven were enriched in pCR-associated samples ( SIGNIFICANCE: The identification of pretreatment predictive biomarkers for pCR in response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy would advance precision treatment for TNBC. To complement standard proteogenomic discovery profiling, a KIPA was deployed and unexpectedly identified a seven-member non-kinase PBP pCR-associated signature. Individual members served diverse pathways including IFN gamma response, nuclear import of DNA repair proteins, and cell death

Scanning X-ray Diffraction Microscopy for Diamond Quantum Sensing

Understanding nano- and micro-scale crystal strain in CVD diamond is crucial to the advancement of diamond quantum technologies. In particular, the presence of such strain and its characterization present a challenge to diamond-based quantum sensing and information applications -- as well as for future dark matter detectors where directional information of incoming particles is encoded in crystal strain. Here, we exploit nanofocused scanning X-ray diffraction microscopy to quantitatively measure crystal deformation from growth defects in CVD diamond with high spatial and strain resolution. Combining information from multiple Bragg angles allows stereoscopic three-dimensional reconstruction of strained volumes; the diffraction results are validated via comparison to optical measurements of the strain tensor based on spin-state-dependent spectroscopy of ensembles of nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers in the diamond. Our results open a path towards directional detection of dark matter via X-ray measurement of crystal strain, and provide a new tool for diamond growth analysis and improvement of defect-based sensing.Comment: 15 pages, 17 figures (incl. Supplemental Material

Challenging vertical turbulence mixing schemes in a tidally energetic environment: 1. 3‐D shelf‐sea model assessment

Mixing in the ocean and shelf seas is critical for the vertical distribution of dynamically active properties, such as density and biogeochemical tracers. Eight different decadal simulations are used to assess the skill of vertical turbulent mixing schemes (TMS) in a 3‐D regional model of tidally active shelf seas. The TMS differ in the type of stability functions used and in the Ozmidov/Deardorff/Galperin limiter of the turbulence length scales. We review the dependence of the critical Richardson and Prandtl numbers to define the “diffusiveness” of the TMS. The skill in representing bias and variability of stratification profiles is assessed with five different metrics: surface and bottom temperatures and pycnocline depth, thickness, and strength. The assessment is made against hydrography from three data sets (28,000 profiles in total). Bottom and surface temperatures are found to be as sensitive to TMS choice as to horizontal resolution or heat flux formulation, as reported in other studies. All TMS underrepresent the pycnocline depth and benthic temperatures. This suggests physical processes are missing from the model, and these are discussed. Different TMSs show the best results for different metrics, and there is no outright winner. Simulations coupled with an ecosystem model show the choice of TMS strongly affects the ecosystem behavior: shifting the timing of peak chlorophyll by 1 month, showing regional chlorophyll differences of order 100%, and redistributing the production of chorophyll between the pycnocline and mixed layer