The Overlooked Potential of Generalized Linear Models in Astronomy - I: Binomial Regression

Revealing hidden patterns in astronomical data is often the path to fundamental scientific breakthroughs; meanwhile the complexity of scientific inquiry increases as more subtle relationships are sought. Contemporary data analysis problems often elude the capabilities of classical statistical techniques, suggesting the use of cutting edge statistical methods. In this light, astronomers have overlooked a whole family of statistical techniques for exploratory data analysis and robust regression, the so-called Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). In this paper -- the first in a series aimed at illustrating the power of these methods in astronomical applications -- we elucidate the potential of a particular class of GLMs for handling binary/binomial data, the so-called logit and probit regression techniques, from both a maximum likelihood and a Bayesian perspective. As a case in point, we present the use of these GLMs to explore the conditions of star formation activity and metal enrichment in primordial minihaloes from cosmological hydro-simulations including detailed chemistry, gas physics, and stellar feedback. We predict that for a dark mini-halo with metallicity $\approx 1.3 \times 10^{-4} Z_{\bigodot}$, an increase of $1.2 \times 10^{-2}$ in the gas molecular fraction, increases the probability of star formation occurrence by a factor of 75%. Finally, we highlight the use of receiver operating characteristic curves as a diagnostic for binary classifiers, and ultimately we use these to demonstrate the competitive predictive performance of GLMs against the popular technique of artificial neural networks.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Computin

The Overlooked Potential of Generalized Linear Models in Astronomy-III: Bayesian Negative Binomial Regression and Globular Cluster Populations

In this paper, the third in a series illustrating the power of generalized linear models (GLMs) for the astronomical community, we elucidate the potential of the class of GLMs which handles count data. The size of a galaxy's globular cluster population $N_{\rm GC}$ is a prolonged puzzle in the astronomical literature. It falls in the category of count data analysis, yet it is usually modelled as if it were a continuous response variable. We have developed a Bayesian negative binomial regression model to study the connection between $N_{\rm GC}$ and the following galaxy properties: central black hole mass, dynamical bulge mass, bulge velocity dispersion, and absolute visual magnitude. The methodology introduced herein naturally accounts for heteroscedasticity, intrinsic scatter, errors in measurements in both axes (either discrete or continuous), and allows modelling the population of globular clusters on their natural scale as a non-negative integer variable. Prediction intervals of 99% around the trend for expected $N_{\rm GC}$comfortably envelope the data, notably including the Milky Way, which has hitherto been considered a problematic outlier. Finally, we demonstrate how random intercept models can incorporate information of each particular galaxy morphological type. Bayesian variable selection methodology allows for automatically identifying galaxy types with different productions of GCs, suggesting that on average S0 galaxies have a GC population 35% smaller than other types with similar brightness.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

A possible case of caprine-associated malignant catarrhal fever in a domestic water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Switzerland

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Malignant catarrhal fever (MCF) is a fatal herpesvirus infection, affecting various wild and domestic ruminants all over the world. Water buffaloes were reported to be particularly susceptible for the ovine herpesvirus-2 (OvHV-2) causing the sheep-associated form of MCF (SA-MCF). This report describes the first case of possibly caprine-associated malignant catarrhal fever symptoms in a domestic water buffalo in Switzerland. CASE PRESENTATION: The buffalo cow presented with persistent fever, dyspnoea, nasal bleeding and haematuria. Despite symptomatic therapy, the buffalo died and was submitted to post mortem examination. Major findings were an abomasal ulceration, a mild haemorrhagic cystitis and multifocal haemorrhages on the epicardium and on serosal and mucosal surfaces. Eyes and oral cavity were not affected. Histopathology revealed a mild to moderate lymphohistiocytic vasculitis limited to the brain and the urinary bladder. Although these findings are typical for MCF, OvHV-2 DNA was not detected in peripheral blood lymphocytes or in paraffin-embedded brain, using an OvHV-2 specific real time PCR. With the aid of a panherpesvirus PCR, a caprine herpesvirus-2 (CpHV-2) sequence could be amplified from both samples. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first report of malignant catarrhal fever in the subfamily Bovinae, where the presence of CpHV-2 could be demonstrated. The etiological context has yet to be evaluated

If cooperation is likely punish mildly: Insights from economic experiments based on the snowdrift game

Punishment may deter antisocial behavior. Yet to punish is costly, and the costs often do not offset the gains that are due to elevated levels of cooperation. However, the effectiveness of punishment depends not only on how costly it is, but also on the circumstances defining the social dilemma. Using the snowdrift game as the basis, we have conducted a series of economic experiments to determine whether severe punishment is more effective than mild punishment. We have observed that severe punishment is not necessarily more effective, even if the cost of punishment is identical in both cases. The benefits of severe punishment become evident only under extremely adverse conditions, when to cooperate is highly improbable in the absence of sanctions. If cooperation is likely, mild punishment is not less effective and leads to higher average payoffs, and is thus the much preferred alternative. Presented results suggest that the positive effects of punishment stem not only from imposed fines, but may also have a psychological background. Small fines can do wonders in motivating us to chose cooperation over defection, but without the paralyzing effect that may be brought about by large fines. The later should be utilized only when absolutely necessary.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures; accepted for publication in PLoS ON

An outbreak of abortions, stillbirths and malformations in a Spanish sheep flock associated with a bovine viral diarrhoea virus 2-contaminated orf vaccine

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is a pestivirus that affects both cattle and sheep, causing an array of clinical signs, which include abortions and malformations in the offspring. Manufacturing of modified live virus (MLV) vaccines often includes the use of bovine-derived products, which implies a risk of contamination with viable BVDV. Recently, the circulation of a specific strain of BVDV 2b among Spanish sheep flocks, associated with outbreaks of abortions and malformations, and whose origin was not determined, has been observed. On February 2018, a MLV orf vaccine was applied to a 1, 600 highly prolific sheep flock in the Northeast of Spain that included 550 pregnant ewes. In May 2018, during the lambing season, an unusual high rate (72.7%) of abortions, stillbirths, congenital malformations and neurological signs in the offspring was observed. It was estimated that about 1, 000 lambs were lost. Three 1- to 3-day-old affected lambs and a sealed vial of the applied vaccine were studied. Lambs showed variable degrees of central nervous system malformations and presence of pestiviral antigen in the brain. Molecular studies demonstrated the presence of exactly the same BVDV 2b in the tissues of the three lambs and in the orf vaccine, thus pointing to a pestivirus contamination in the applied vaccine as the cause of the outbreak. Interestingly, sequencing at the 5'-untranslated region-(UTR) of the contaminating virus showed a complete match with the virus described in the previously reported outbreaks in Spain, thus indicating that the same contaminated vaccine could have also played a role in those cases. This communication provides a clear example of the effects of the application of this contaminated product in a sheep flock. The information presented here can be of interest in putative future cases of suspected circulation of this or other BVDV strains in ruminants

The overlooked potential of Generalized Linear Models in astronomy, I: Binomial regression

Revealing hidden patterns in astronomical data is often the path to fundamental scientific breakthroughs; meanwhile the complexity of scientific inquiry increases as more subtle relationships are sought. Contemporary data analysis problems often elude the capabilities of classical statistical techniques, suggesting the use of cutting edge statistical methods. In this light, astronomers have overlooked a whole family of statistical techniques for exploratory data analysis and robust regression, the so-called Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). In this paper – the first in a series aimed at illustrating the power of these methods in astronomical applications – we elucidate the potential of a particular class of GLMs for handling binary/binomial data, the so-called logit and probit regression techniques, from both a maximum likelihood and a Bayesian perspective. As a case in point, we present the use of these GLMs to explore the conditions of star formation activity and metal enrichment in primordial minihaloes from cosmological hydro-simulations including detailed chemistry, gas physics, and stellar feedback. We predict that for a dark mini-halo with metallicity ≈ 1.3 × 10−4ZJ, an increase of 1.2 × 10−2 in the gas molecular fraction, increases the probability of star formation occurrence by a factor of 75%. Finally, we highlight the use of receiver operating characteristic curves as a diagnostic for binary classifiers, and ultimately we use these to demonstrate the competitive predictive performance of GLMs against the popular technique of artificial neural networks

Combining frequency and time domain approaches to systems with multiple spike train input and output

A frequency domain approach and a time domain approach have been combined in an investigation of the behaviour of the primary and secondary endings of an isolated muscle spindle in response to the activity of two static fusimotor axons when the parent muscle is held at a fixed length and when it is subjected to random length changes. The frequency domain analysis has an associated error process which provides a measure of how well the input processes can be used to predict the output processes and is also used to specify how the interactions between the recorded processes contribute to this error. Without assuming stationarity of the input, the time domain approach uses a sequence of probability models of increasing complexity in which the number of input processes to the model is progressively increased. This feature of the time domain approach was used to identify a preferred direction of interaction between the processes underlying the generation of the activity of the primary and secondary endings. In the presence of fusimotor activity and dynamic length changes imposed on the muscle, it was shown that the activity of the primary and secondary endings carried different information about the effects of the inputs imposed on the muscle spindle. The results presented in this work emphasise that the analysis of the behaviour of complex systems benefits from a combination of frequency and time domain methods

Benevolent characteristics promote cooperative behaviour among humans

Cooperation is fundamental to the evolution of human society. We regularly observe cooperative behaviour in everyday life and in controlled experiments with anonymous people, even though standard economic models predict that they should deviate from the collective interest and act so as to maximise their own individual payoff. However, there is typically heterogeneity across subjects: some may cooperate, while others may not. Since individual factors promoting cooperation could be used by institutions to indirectly prime cooperation, this heterogeneity raises the important question of who these cooperators are. We have conducted a series of experiments to study whether benevolence, defined as a unilateral act of paying a cost to increase the welfare of someone else beyond one's own, is related to cooperation in a subsequent one-shot anonymous Prisoner's dilemma. Contrary to the predictions of the widely used inequity aversion models, we find that benevolence does exist and a large majority of people behave this way. We also find benevolence to be correlated with cooperative behaviour. Finally, we show a causal link between benevolence and cooperation: priming people to think positively about benevolent behaviour makes them significantly more cooperative than priming them to think malevolently. Thus benevolent people exist and cooperate more

Cost-effective external interference for promoting the evolution of cooperation.

The problem of promoting the evolution of cooperative behaviour within populations of self-regarding individuals has been intensively investigated across diverse fields of behavioural, social and computational sciences. In most studies, cooperation is assumed to emerge from the combined actions of participating individuals within the populations, without taking into account the possibility of external interference and how it can be performed in a cost-efficient way. Here, we bridge this gap by studying a cost-efficient interference model based on evolutionary game theory, where an exogenous decision-maker aims to ensure high levels of cooperation from a population of individuals playing the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma, at a minimal cost. We derive analytical conditions for which an interference scheme or strategy can guarantee a given level of cooperation while at the same time minimising the total cost of investment (for rewarding cooperative behaviours), and show that the results are highly sensitive to the intensity of selection by interference. Interestingly, we show that a simple class of interference that makes investment decisions based on the population composition can lead to significantly more cost-efficient outcomes than standard institutional incentive strategies, especially in the case of weak selection.</p

Primary central nervous system T-cell lymphoma mimicking meningoencephalomyelitis in a cat

A cat was presented with right head tilt and circling. The lack of expression of virus antigens did not support the postmortem diagnosis of encephalomyelitis pointing to a diffuse primary central nervous system T-cell lymphoma on the basis of CD3 and CD45R co-expression with absence of CD79a staining. = Résumé — Lymphome primaire de système nerveux central type T imitant méningo-encéphalomyélite chez un chat. Un chat est venu avec inclinaison de la tête à droite et circling. L’absence d’expression des antigènes du virus ne prend pas en charge le diagnositic post mortem e d’une encéphalomyélite pointant vers un lymphome primaire du système nerveux central type T diffus sur la base de CD3 et CD45R coexpression avec absence CD79a expression