Joint estimation of survival and dispersal effectively corrects the permanent emigration bias in mark‑recapture analyses

Robust and reliable estimates of demographic parameters are essential to understand population dynamics. Natal dispersal is a common process in monitored populations and can cause underestimations of survival and dispersal due to permanent emigration. Here, we present a multistate Bayesian capture-mark-recapture approach based on a joint estimation of natal dispersal kernel and detection probabilities to address biases in survival, dispersal, and related demographic parameters when dispersal information is limited. We implement this approach to long-term data of a threatened population: the Bonelli's eagle in Catalonia (SW Europe). To assess the method's performance, we compare demographic estimates structured by sex, age, and breeding status in cases of limited versus large data scales, with those of classical models where dispersal and detection probabilities are estimated separately. Results show substantial corrections of demographic estimates. Natal dispersal and permanent emigration probabilities were larger in females, and consequently, female non-breeder survival showed larger differences between separate and joint estimation models. Moreover, our results suggest that estimates are sensitive to the choice of the dispersal kernel, fat-tailed kernels providing larger values in cases of data limitation. This study provides a general multistate framework to model demographic parameters while correcting permanent emigration biases caused by natal dispersal

El rol de la masa muscular en la prevención y tratamiento de las enfermedades crónicas

Las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT), según la clasificación de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, son la primera causa de muerte dentro de los países llamados desarrollados y en vía de desarrollo. Algunas de las patologías que se clasifican dentro de esta categoría, son las cardiometabólicas, como pueden ser la obesidad, hipertensión arterial, diabetes, infarto agudo de miocardio, entre otras. En la actualidad las estadísticas son muy preocupantes y en lo que respecta al futuro peor aun. Hoy en día, en el primer lugar de morbi-mortalidad se encuentran las enfermedades cardiovasculares (17 millones de muertes en 2002) ascendiendo según OMS para el 2030 a 25 millones, seguido por el cáncer (7 millones), enfermedades pulmonares crónicas (4 millones) y la diabetes mellitus (casi 1 millón). Debido a este contexto se estima que para el año 2020, las ECNT explicarán el 75% de todas las muertes en el mundo, en especial en países en vías de desarrollo. La gran mayoría de las enfermedades denominadas cardiometabólicas, se asocian directamente con un estilo de vida nocivo que predisponen a las personas a desarrollar este tipo de patologías. En los últimos 30 años, la población mundial se ha vuelto más obesa y menos activos físicamente, como resultado, hay una aparición de enfermedades asociadas con disfunciones metabólicas y cardiovasculares, tales como la obesidad, la diabetes tipo 2 y síndrome metabólico (Szostak, 2011).Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educació

Coral Reef Resilience Index for Novel Ecosystems: A Spatial Planning Tool for Managers and Decision Makers - A Case Study from Puerto Rico

Timely information is critical for coral reef managers and decision-makers to implement sustainable management measures. A Coral Reef Resilience Index (CRRI) was developed with a GIS-coupled decision-making tool applicable for Caribbean coral reef ecosystems. The CRRI is based on a five-point scale parameterized from the quantitative characterization of benthic assemblages. Separate subindices such as the Coral Index, the Threatened Species Index, and the Algal Index also provide specific information regarding targeted benthic components. This case study was based on assessments conducted in 2014 on 11 reef sites located across 3 geographic zones and 3 depth zones along the southwestern shelf of the island of Puerto Rico, Caribbean Sea. There was a significant spatial and bathymetric gradient (p < 0.05) in the distribution of CRRI values indicating higher degradation of inshore reefs. Mean global CRRI ranged from 2.78 to 3.17 across the shelf, ranking them as “fair.” The Coral Index ranged from 2.60 to 3.76, ranking reefs from “poor” to “good,” showing a general cross-shelf trend of improving conditions with increasing distance from pollution sources. Turbidity and ammonia were significantly correlated to CRRI scores. Multiple recommendations are provided based on coral reef conditions according to observed CRRI rankings

TOI-150: A transiting hot Jupiter in the TESS southern CVZ

We report the detection of a hot Jupiter ($M_{p}=1.75_{-0.17}^{+0.14}\ M_{J}$,$R_{p}=1.38\pm0.04\ R_{J}$) orbiting a middle-aged star ($\log g=4.152^{+0.030}_{-0.043}$) in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) southern continuous viewing zone ($\beta=-79.59^{\circ}$). We confirm the planetary nature of the candidate TOI-150.01 using radial velocity observations from the APOGEE-2 South spectrograph and the Carnegie Planet Finder Spectrograph, ground-based photometric observations from the robotic Three-hundred MilliMeter Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, and Gaia distance estimates. Large-scale spectroscopic surveys, such as APOGEE/APOGEE-2, now have sufficient radial velocity precision to directly confirm the signature of giant exoplanets, making such data sets valuable tools in the TESS era. Continual monitoring of TOI-150 by TESS can reveal additional planets and subsequent observations can provide insights into planetary system architectures involving a hot Jupiter around a star about halfway through its main-sequence life.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, accepted to ApJ

Simulación de flujo laminar para estimar la tortuosidad en la alfombra de Sierpinsk

Este trabajo se centra en la simulación numérica de flujo laminar para estimar la tortuosidad en una estructura geométrica fractal denominada alfombra de Sierpinski, a menudo usada para simular medios porosos sintéticos. La tortuosidad se describe como la medida de las formas irregulares o sinuosidad de los caminos, y es un parámetro muy importante para las Ciencias de la Tierra desde la Geología hasta la Ingeniería Petrolera, por su gran variedad de aplicaciones. En este estudio, se utiliza el software Comsol Multiphysics para resolver las ecuaciones que gobiernan el flujo laminar lo que permite analizar el movimiento de los fluidos a través de la alfombra de Sierpinski. Los resultados permiten obtener información valiosa sobre la eficiencia de un fluido para transportarse a través de una estructura fractal, lo que puede ser relevante en diversas áreas de investigación. Esta metodología da estimaciones de la tortuosidad comparables a las que se obtienen con otras metodologías de la literatura

Living on the Edge: Assessing the Extinction Risk of Critically Endangered Bonelli’s Eagle in Italy

Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity), and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population’s fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli’s eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate l.1). In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. Conclusions/Significance: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species in Italy, measures are urgently needed to decrease both adult mortality due to poaching and juvenile mortality due to nest plundering, the top ranking mortality causes.PLL is supported by a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral grant of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (reference JCI-2011–09588)

Changes in resilience in students of occupational therapy after their first exposure to practice placement education

Introduction: Resilience is a multidimensional and dynamic construct associated with positive growth and the capacity to transform stressful and negative factors into opportunities of personal development and self-improvement when faced with difficult experiences. The resilience process of each individual integrates multiple analysis levels, which range from genetic-environmental interactions to a complex process of adaptation between the individual and his/her family, friends, co-workers, society, and culture. Objective: To determine whether resilience improves in students of occupational therapy when exposed for the first time to practice placement education. Methodology: Quasi-experimental, prospective, observational, multi-center study with a sample composed of students from the Degree of Occupational Therapy of the public universities of Málaga (UMA) and Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain). Two weeks prior to the beginning of the practice education period, the participants completed a questionnaire that included sociodemographic data and the area of their internships. They were also given the Spanish version of the Connor-Davidson's resilience scale (CD-RISC). All these instruments were also completed 1 week after the end of the clinical practice. Results: There were statistically significant differences between the variables that make up resilience and the different internship areas. On the other hand, there was a significant improvement of global resilience after the clinical practice period, in both women (13.85 points; p < 0.001) and men (7.72 points; p < 0.035), when the internship area was not considered. Conclusions: The results show that resilient students are more optimistic and work to improve a situation beyond doing simply what is expected of them, knowing how to control their feelings. This is beneficial for students in practice education, since, during these, they face difficult situations that require a resilient pattern, which helps reduce stress and the burnout syndrome