Temporally varying natural mortality: Sensitivity of a virtual population analysis and an exploration of alternatives

Cohort reconstructions (CR) currently applied in Pacific salmon management estimate temporally variant exploitation, maturation, and juvenile natural mortality rates but require an assumed (typically invariant) adult natural mortality rate (dA), resulting in unknown biases in the remaining vital rates. We explored the sensitivity of CR results to misspecification of the mean and/or variability of dA, as well as the potential to estimate dA directly using models that assumed separable year and age/cohort effects on vital rates (separable cohort reconstruction, SCR). For CR, given the commonly assumed dA = 0.2, the error (RMSE) in estimated vital rates is generally small (? 0.05) when annual values of dA are low to moderate (? 0.4). The greatest absolute errors are in maturation rates, with large relative error in the juvenile survival rate. The ability of CR estimates to track temporal trends in the juvenile natural mortality rate is adequate (Pearson's correlation coefficient > 0.75) except for high dA (? 0.6) and high variability (CV > 0.35). The alternative SCR models allowing estimation of time-varying dA by assuming additive effects in natural mortality, fishing mortality, and/or maturation rates did not outperform CR across all simulated scenarios, and are less accurate when additivity assumptions are violated. Nevertheless an SCR model assuming additive effects on fishing and natural (juvenile and adult) mortality rates led to nearly unbiased estimates of all quantities estimated using CR, along with borderline acceptable estimates of the mean dA under multiple sets of conditions conducive to CR. Adding an assumption of additive effects on the maturation rates allowed nearly unbiased estimates of the mean dA as well. The SCR models performed slightly better than CR when the vital rates covaried as assumed. These separable models could serve as a partial check on the validity of CR assumptions about the adult natural mortality rate, or even a preferred alternative if there is strong reason to believe the vital rates, including juvenile and adult natural mortality rates, covary strongly across years or age classes as assumed

Reciprocal relationships between trajectories of depressive symptoms and screen media use during adolescence

Adolescents are constantly connected with each other and the digital landscape through a myriad of screen media devices. Unprecedented access to the wider world and hence a variety of activities, particularly since the introduction of mobile technology, has given rise to questions regarding the impact of this changing media environment on the mental health of young people. Depressive symptoms are one of the most common disabling health issues in adolescence and although research has examined associations between screen use and symptoms of depression, longitudinal investigations are rare and fewer still consider trajectories of change in symptoms. Given the plethora of devices and normalisation of their use, understanding potential longitudinal associations with mental health is crucial. A sample of 1,749 (47% female) adolescents (10-17 years) participated in six waves of data collection over two years. Symptoms of depression, time spent on screens, and on separate screen activities (social networking, gaming, web browsing, TV/passive) were self-reported. Latent growth curve modelling revealed three trajectories of depressive symptoms (Low-Stable, High-Decreasing, and Low-Increasing) and there were important differences across these groups on screen use. Some small, positive associations were evident between depressive symptoms and later screen use, and between screen use and later depressive symptoms. However, a Random Intercept Cross Lagged Panel Model revealed no consistent support for a longitudinal association. The study highlights the importance of considering differential trajectories of depressive symptoms and specific forms of screen activity to understand these relationships

Supporting adolescent emotional health in schools: a mixed methods study of student and staff views in England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Schools have been identified as an important place in which to support adolescent emotional health, although evidence as to which interventions are effective remains limited. Relatively little is known about student and staff views regarding current school-based emotional health provision and what they would like to see in the future, and this is what this study explored.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A random sample of 296 English secondary schools were surveyed to quantify current level of emotional health provision. Qualitative student focus groups (27 groups, 154 students aged 12-14) and staff interviews (12 interviews, 15 individuals) were conducted in eight schools, purposively sampled from the survey respondents to ensure a range of emotional health activity, free school meal eligibility and location. Data were analysed thematically, following a constant comparison approach.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Emergent themes were grouped into three areas in which participants felt schools did or could intervene: emotional health in the curriculum, support for those in distress, and the physical and psychosocial environment. Little time was spent teaching about emotional health in the curriculum, and most staff and students wanted more. Opportunities to explore emotions in other curriculum subjects were valued. All schools provided some support for students experiencing emotional distress, but the type and quality varied a great deal. Students wanted an increase in school-based help sources that were confidential, available to all and sympathetic, and were concerned that accessing support should not lead to stigma. Finally, staff and students emphasised the need to consider the whole school environment in order to address sources of distress such as bullying and teacher-student relationships, but also to increase activities that enhanced emotional health.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Staff and students identified several ways in which schools can improve their support of adolescent emotional health, both within and outside the curriculum. However, such changes should be introduced as part of a wider consideration of how the whole school environment can be more supportive of students' emotional health. Clearer guidance at policy level, more rigorous evaluation of current interventions, and greater dissemination of good practice is necessary to ensure adolescents' emotional health needs are addressed effectively within schools.</p

Effects of fluoxetine on functional outcomes after acute stroke (FOCUS): a pragmatic, double-blind, randomised, controlled trial

Background Results of small trials indicate that fluoxetine might improve functional outcomes after stroke. The FOCUS trial aimed to provide a precise estimate of these effects. Methods FOCUS was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 103 hospitals in the UK. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had a clinical stroke diagnosis, were enrolled and randomly assigned between 2 days and 15 days after onset, and had focal neurological deficits. Patients were randomly allocated fluoxetine 20 mg or matching placebo orally once daily for 6 months via a web-based system by use of a minimisation algorithm. The primary outcome was functional status, measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), at 6 months. Patients, carers, health-care staff, and the trial team were masked to treatment allocation. Functional status was assessed at 6 months and 12 months after randomisation. Patients were analysed according to their treatment allocation. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN83290762. Findings Between Sept 10, 2012, and March 31, 2017, 3127 patients were recruited. 1564 patients were allocated fluoxetine and 1563 allocated placebo. mRS data at 6 months were available for 1553 (99·3%) patients in each treatment group. The distribution across mRS categories at 6 months was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (common odds ratio adjusted for minimisation variables 0·951 [95% CI 0·839–1·079]; p=0·439). Patients allocated fluoxetine were less likely than those allocated placebo to develop new depression by 6 months (210 [13·43%] patients vs 269 [17·21%]; difference 3·78% [95% CI 1·26–6·30]; p=0·0033), but they had more bone fractures (45 [2·88%] vs 23 [1·47%]; difference 1·41% [95% CI 0·38–2·43]; p=0·0070). There were no significant differences in any other event at 6 or 12 months. Interpretation Fluoxetine 20 mg given daily for 6 months after acute stroke does not seem to improve functional outcomes. Although the treatment reduced the occurrence of depression, it increased the frequency of bone fractures. These results do not support the routine use of fluoxetine either for the prevention of post-stroke depression or to promote recovery of function. Funding UK Stroke Association and NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme

California's Dungeness Crab: Conserving the Resource and Increasing the Net Economic Value of the Fishery

Along the Pacific coast (CA/OR/WA), the historical mainstays of the fishing industry have been thePacific salmon, groundfish, and Dungeness crab fisheries. However, recent cuts in allowablelandings of salmon and groundfish have shifted fishing effort toward crab. Diminishingopportunities in salmon and groundfish in California will further increase fishing effort onDungeness crabs, resulting in the intensifying derby that now characterizes the fishery andimposing increased pressure on stocks at deeper depths. Projected increased fishing effort will alsolikely create new biological conservation concerns for Dungeness crab populations and diminish itsnet economic value of the fishery

California's Dungeness Crab: Conserving the Resource and Increasing the Net Economic Value of the Fishery

Along the Pacific coast (CA/OR/WA), the historical mainstays of the fishing industry have been thePacific salmon, groundfish, and Dungeness crab fisheries. However, recent cuts in allowablelandings of salmon and groundfish have shifted fishing effort toward crab. Diminishingopportunities in salmon and groundfish in California will further increase fishing effort onDungeness crabs, resulting in the intensifying derby that now characterizes the fishery andimposing increased pressure on stocks at deeper depths. Projected increased fishing effort will alsolikely create new biological conservation concerns for Dungeness crab populations and diminish itsnet economic value of the fishery

Sampling designs for estimating the total number of fish in small streams /

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