The 2015 NSW prison population forecast

Prison population forecasting is fraught with difficulty. Many factors affect the size of the prison population, including levels of crime, the number of arrests, the proportion of arrestees convicted, the proportion refused bail, the proportion given a prison sentence, the average length of prison sentences, the proportion of offenders released to parole at the end of their non-parole period and the rate at which parole is revoked. This report provides short and long-term forecasts of the number of prisoners in NSW. Three long-term forecasts are provided; one of which assumes no further growth in age-specific rates of imprisonment, and another two of which assume a continuation of the growth that has occurred either over the last ten years or over the history of available data (32 years), respectively. In order to provide some context for the forecasts we begin by describing long-term trends in the remand and sentenced prisoner numbers and some of the factors that have influenced growth in these populations. Results: The short-term forecast is that, if relevant influences remain unchanged, NSW will have 12,191 prisoners by March 2017. If age-specific rates of imprisonment remain constant, we expect the NSW prison population to rise to 12,500 by June 2036. If age-specific rates of imprisonment rise in a manner commensurate with trends observed over the past decade, the prison population should reach 15,600 by June 2036. If age-specific imprisonment rates rise according to the trends observed since 1982, the prison population should reach 17,600 by June 2036. Conclusion: The NSW prison population is likely to rise over both the short and long-term unless measures are taken to reduce the demand for prison accommodation. &nbsp

Viral Evolution in the Genomic Age

The remarkable increase in the number of viral genome sequences represents both opportunities and challenges for understanding disease ecology and evolution, and must stimulate researchers to address questions that were previously considered out of reach

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available

Ultrastructure of calcified cartilage in the endoskeletal tesserae of sharks

The tesserate pattern of endoskeletal calcification has been investigated in jaws, gill arches, vertebral arches and fins of the sharks Carcharhinus menisorrah, Triaenodon obesus and Negaprion brevirostris by techniques of light and electron microscopy. Individual tesserae develop peripherally at the boundary between cartilage and perichondrium. An inner zone, the body, is composed of calcified cartilage containing viable chondrocytes separated by basophilic contour lines which have been called Liesegang waves or rings. The outer zone of tesserae, the cap, is composed of calcified tissue which appears to be produced by perichondrial fibroblasts more directly, i.e., without first differentiating as chondroblasts. Furthermore, the cap zone is penetrated by acidophilic Sharpey fibers of collagen. It is suggested that scleroblasts of the cap zone could be classified as osteoblasts. If so, the cap could be considered a thin veneer of bone atop the calcified cartilage of the body of a tessera. By scanning electron microscopy it was observed that outer and inner surfaces of tesserae differ in appearance. Calcospherites and hydroxyapatite crystals similar to those commonly seen on the surface of bone are present on the outer surface of the tessera adjacent to the perichondrium. On the inner surface adjoining hyaline cartilage, however, calcospherites of variable size are the predominant surface feature. Transmission electron microscopy shows calcification in close association with coarse collagen fibrils on the outer side of a tessera, but such fibrils are absent from the cartilaginous matrix along the under side of tesserae. Calcified cartilage as a tissue type in the endoskeleton of sharks is a primitive vertebrate characteristic. Calcification in the tesserate pattern occurring in modern Chondrichthyes may be derived from an ancestral pattern of a continuous bed of calcified cartilage underlying a layer of perichondral bone, as theorized by Ørvig (1951); or the tesserate pattern in these fish may itself be primitive.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/50272/1/1051600106_ftp.pd

Assessment of humoral immune responses to blood-stage malaria antigens following ChAd63-MVA immunization, controlled human malaria infection and natural exposure.

The development of protective vaccines against many difficult infectious pathogens will necessitate the induction of effective antibody responses. Here we assess humoral immune responses against two antigens from the blood-stage merozoite of the Plasmodium falciparum human malaria parasite--MSP1 and AMA1. These antigens were delivered to healthy malaria-naïve adult volunteers in Phase Ia clinical trials using recombinant replication-deficient viral vectors--ChAd63 to prime the immune response and MVA to boost. In subsequent Phase IIa clinical trials, immunized volunteers underwent controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) with P. falciparum to assess vaccine efficacy, whereby all but one volunteer developed low-density blood-stage parasitemia. Here we assess serum antibody responses against both the MSP1 and AMA1 antigens following i) ChAd63-MVA immunization, ii) immunization and CHMI, and iii) primary malaria exposure in the context of CHMI in unimmunized control volunteers. Responses were also assessed in a cohort of naturally-immune Kenyan adults to provide comparison with those induced by a lifetime of natural malaria exposure. Serum antibody responses against MSP1 and AMA1 were characterized in terms of i) total IgG responses before and after CHMI, ii) responses to allelic variants of MSP1 and AMA1, iii) functional growth inhibitory activity (GIA), iv) IgG avidity, and v) isotype responses (IgG1-4, IgA and IgM). These data provide the first in-depth assessment of the quality of adenovirus-MVA vaccine-induced antibody responses in humans, along with assessment of how these responses are modulated by subsequent low-density parasite exposure. Notable differences were observed in qualitative aspects of the human antibody responses against these malaria antigens depending on the means of their induction and/or exposure of the host to the malaria parasite. Given the continued clinical development of viral vectored vaccines for malaria and a range of other diseases targets, these data should help to guide further immuno-monitoring studies of vaccine-induced human antibody responses

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries

BACKGROUND:Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1-4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings

Protective CD8+ T-cell immunity to human malaria induced by chimpanzee adenovirus-MVA immunisation.

Induction of antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells offers the prospect of immunization against many infectious diseases, but no subunit vaccine has induced CD8(+) T cells that correlate with efficacy in humans. Here we demonstrate that a replication-deficient chimpanzee adenovirus vector followed by a modified vaccinia virus Ankara booster induces exceptionally high frequency T-cell responses (median >2400 SFC/10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells) to the liver-stage Plasmodium falciparum malaria antigen ME-TRAP. It induces sterile protective efficacy against heterologous strain sporozoites in three vaccinees (3/14, 21%), and delays time to patency through substantial reduction of liver-stage parasite burden in five more (5/14, 36%), P=0.008 compared with controls. The frequency of monofunctional interferon-γ-producing CD8(+) T cells, but not antibodies, correlates with sterile protection and delay in time to patency (P(corrected)=0.005). Vaccine-induced CD8(+) T cells provide protection against human malaria, suggesting that a major limitation of previous vaccination approaches has been the insufficient magnitude of induced T cells

An Overview of the 2014 ALMA Long Baseline Campaign

A major goal of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) is to make accurate images with resolutions of tens of milliarcseconds, which at submillimeter (submm) wavelengths requires baselines up to ~15 km. To develop and test this capability, a Long Baseline Campaign (LBC) was carried out from September to late November 2014, culminating in end-to-end observations, calibrations, and imaging of selected Science Verification (SV) targets. This paper presents an overview of the campaign and its main results, including an investigation of the short-term coherence properties and systematic phase errors over the long baselines at the ALMA site, a summary of the SV targets and observations, and recommendations for science observing strategies at long baselines. Deep ALMA images of the quasar 3C138 at 97 and 241 GHz are also compared to VLA 43 GHz results, demonstrating an agreement at a level of a few percent. As a result of the extensive program of LBC testing, the highly successful SV imaging at long baselines achieved angular resolutions as fine as 19 mas at ~350 GHz. Observing with ALMA on baselines of up to 15 km is now possible, and opens up new parameter space for submm astronomy.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters; this version with small changes to affiliation

Impact on Malaria Parasite Multiplication Rates in Infected Volunteers of the Protein-in-Adjuvant Vaccine AMA1-C1/Alhydrogel+CPG 7909

BACKGROUND: Inhibition of parasite growth is a major objective of blood-stage malaria vaccines. The in vitro assay of parasite growth inhibitory activity (GIA) is widely used as a surrogate marker for malaria vaccine efficacy in the down-selection of candidate blood-stage vaccines. Here we report the first study to examine the relationship between in vivo Plasmodium falciparum growth rates and in vitro GIA in humans experimentally infected with blood-stage malaria. METHODS: In this phase I/IIa open-label clinical trial five healthy malaria-naive volunteers were immunised with AMA1/C1-Alhydrogel+CPG 7909, and together with three unvaccinated controls were challenged by intravenous inoculation of P. falciparum infected erythrocytes. RESULTS: A significant correlation was observed between parasite multiplication rate in 48 hours (PMR) and both vaccine-induced growth-inhibitory activity (Pearson r = -0.93 [95% CI: -1.0, -0.27] P = 0.02) and AMA1 antibody titres in the vaccine group (Pearson r = -0.93 [95% CI: -0.99, -0.25] P = 0.02). However immunisation failed to reduce overall mean PMR in the vaccine group in comparison to the controls (vaccinee 16 fold [95% CI: 12, 22], control 17 fold [CI: 0, 65] P = 0.70). Therefore no impact on pre-patent period was observed (vaccine group median 8.5 days [range 7.5-9], control group median 9 days [range 7-9]). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the first observation in human experimental malaria infection of a significant association between vaccine-induced in vitro growth inhibitory activity and in vivo parasite multiplication rate, this did not translate into any observable clinically relevant vaccine effect in this small group of volunteers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov [NCT00984763]