River Flow Estimation from Upstream Flow Records Using Support Vector Machines

A novel architecture for flood routing model has been proposed and its efficiency is validated on several problems by employing support vector machines. The architecture is designed by including the inputs and observed and calculated outflows from the previous time step output. Whole observed data have been used for determining the model parameters in the heuristic methods given in the literature, which constitutes the major disadvantage of the existing approaches. Moreover, using the whole data for training may lead to overtraining problem that causes overfitting of estimations and data. Therefore, in this study, 60-90% of the data are randomly selected for training and then the remaining data are used for validation. In order to take the effects of the measurement errors into consideration, the data are corrupted by some additive noise. The results show that the proposed architecture improves the model performance under noisy and missing data conditions and that support vector machines can be powerful alternative in flood routing modeling

Standart süreli yağış şiddetlerinin eğilim analizi yöntemleriyle incelenmesi

Emerging changes in the ecosystem and global warming are among the humanity's most important issues in today's world. Global warming, melting of glaciers, rising sea water levels and irregularities in rainfall show the existence of these problems. The irregularities in rainfall are of great importance in terms of existing and planned water structures. Recently in our country; irregularities in averaged rainfall data measured over many years, declines and irregularities in the intensity of precipitation are frequently observed. These findings show that Turkey is also affected by ecosystem and global warming in different dimensions. Trends in rainfall intensity at stations were determined by using the standard duration rainfall intensity data obtained from the Maximum Rainfall Data observed in standard durations by 207 observation stations in Turkey, the observation period being over 20 years. The data was obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology. Mann Kendall and Spearman's Rho were used to identify trends, while Innovative Trend Analysis methods were used to determine dominance. Trends were determined by using Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho trend testing methods for each standard time of station data, and the dominance of data sets were determined by using innovative trend analysis. Trend and dominance maps of the stations used for each standard duration are prepared in the context of the determined results

A Study on Heavy Metal Contents in Milled Rice Obtained From Pady Rice Irrigated With Ergene River and Other Water Sources

DergiPark: 245937trakyafbdBu araştırma 2001 ve 2002 yıllarında Ergene Nehrinden ve diğer su kaynaklarından sulanan çeltiklerden elde edilen pirinçlerde ağır metal içeriklerini belirlemek için yapılmıştır. Araştırma ile değişik kaynaklardan sulanarak üretilen çeltiklerin, pirinç ve kargo pirinç tanelerinde Pb, Cd, Cu ve Cr analizleri yapılmıştır. 30 beyaz pirinç örneğinde ortalama Pb, Cd, Cu ve Cr içerikleri sırasıyla 0.210 ± 0.095 mg/kg, 0.072 ± 0.021 mg/kg, 1.558 ± 0.661 mg/kg ve 0.317 ± 0.190 mg/kg bulunmuşturThis study was carried out to study heavy metal contents of rice irrigated with Ergene river or other water sources in 2001 and 2002. Pb, Cd, Cu and Cr contents of polished and brown rice irrigated various water sources were analysed. Mean values of Pb, Cd, Cu and Cr contents of 30 polished rice were found 0.210 ± 0.095 mg/kg, 0.072 ± 0.021 mg/kg, 1.558 ± 0.661mg/kg and 0.317 ± 0.190 mg/kg, respectivel

Determination of adaptation capabilities of some durum wheat genotypes of foreign origin in Southeast Anatolian Region

Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesinin iki önemli alt bölgesini temsil eden Diyarbakır ve Kızıltepe lokasyonlarında 2011-2012 yetiştirme sezonunda yürütülen bu çalışma, adaptasyon kabiliyeti ve kalite özellikleri yönünden üstün durum buğday genotiplerini belirlemek ve ıslah programlarında kullanmak amacıyla yürütülmüştür. Çalışmada, ICARDA (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas)’dan temin edilen 18 hat ile 5 kontrol çeşit (Omrabi5, Younes1, Korifla, Waha, Miki2) ile beraber, bölgede ekilen Zühre çeşidi standart olarak kullanılmıştır. Deneme, tesadüf blokları deneme dese-nine göre iki lokasyonda ve üç tekerrürlü olarak kurulmuştur. Çalışmada tane verimi, bin tane ağırlığı, hektolitre ağırlığı, pro-tein içeriği, irmik rengi ile SDS değeri incelenmiştir. Yapılan bileşik analize göre, hektolitre ağırlığı dışındaki bütün paramet-reler açısından genotipler arasında önemli farklılıklar tespit edilmiştir. Lokasyonlar arasında tane verimi ve bin tane ağırlığı; genotip x lokasyon interaksiyonunda ise tane verimi, bin tane ağırlığı ve protein oranı bakımından önemli farklılıklar göz-lenmiştir. Ayrıca özellikler arası ve genotip-özellik ilişkilerini değerlendirmek amacıyla Biplot analizi uygulanmıştır. Bu ana-liz yöntemiyle, birbirleriyle ilişkili özellikler ve belirli özellikler açısından öne çıkan genotipler görsel olarak gösterilmiştir. İki lokasyon ortalamasına göre verim ve kalite özellikleri ile ilgili umut vadeden genotipler, ıslah programının ileri kademele-rine alınmıştır.This study was performed in growing season of 2011-2012 in Diyarbakır and Kızıltepe, representing two important subregions of Southeast Anatolia Region, in order to identify durum wheat genotypes having superior adaptaptation capabilities and quality features to be used in breeding programs. The material used in the study included 18 lines and 5 control varieties (Omrabi5, Younes1, Korifla, Waha, Miki2) obtained from ICARDA (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas)and Zühre durum wheat variety cultivated in the region as the standart. The trials were performed as a randomized complete block design experiment with three replications in two locations. Grain yield, thousand kernel weight, hectoliter weight, protein content, semolina color and SDS value were evaluated in the study. The results of the analyses of compound variances revealed significant differences between genotypes in all the parameters except hectoliter weight. Significant differences were found between locations in terms of grain yield and thousand kernel weight and in terms of grain yield, thousand kernel weight and protein content between the genotype x location interaction. A biplot analysis method was performed to evaluate inter-trait and genotype-trait relationships. Traits related to each other and the genotypes featured in terms of particular traits were visually shown by this analysis. Promising genotypes according to the grain yield and quality characteristics based on two location averages were taken to the advanced stages of the breeding progra

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Predicting Muskingum flood routing parameters using spreadsheets

In this study, two easy to use and high precision solution methods that can be used for educational and engineering purposes are proposed. The first of these methods is the "Trial-Error with Spreadsheet" procedure combining basic properties of spreadsheets and the other method is the "Nonlinear optimization with Solver" procedure that uses the nonlinear optimization code and the "Iterative calculation" which is one of the most effective properties of spreadsheets. Both of the proposed methods are tested on three samples given in literature and the comparisons of the model results, observation results, and the results of other solution techniques in literature are made. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Discussion of "Evaluation of Explicit Numerical Solution Methods of the Muskingum Model" by Ali R. Vatankhah

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Public Health Rep

14001382PMCnul

An iterative method for the solution of dispersion equation in shallow water

In order to keep the pollution levels below permissible limits and also to forecast the final concentrations to be reached, current patterns and dispersion characteristics are required for water quality problems in lakes and coastal regions. In this case, it is necessary to solve the dispersion equations that include transport, diffusion and reaction processes to find the distribution and concentrations of pollutant. In this study, a numerical model was developed for simulating pollutant dispersion in well-mixed lakes and reservoirs. The model is based on solving dispersion equation using the Newton-Raphson algorithm and results of hydrodynamic model. The developed model can be used for long-term distribution of conservative or non-conservative pollutants in lakes and reservoirs

Determining rainfall-intensity-duration-frequency relationship using Particle Swarm Optimization

This study proposes a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to model the Rainfall-Intensity-Duration-Frequency (RIDF) relationship. The study is carried out under two scenarios. In scenario I, a data set with a length of 50 years is used. In Scenario II, the data set is extended to 68 years by adding the values of the recent 18 years. Scenario I is used for testing the robustness of the proposed PSO-RIDF model. The PSO-RIDF algorithm gives the same objective function value for different runs and this shows that the proposed algorithm is robust. Scenario II is used to investigate the influence of data length on model performance. It has been observed that the proposed PSO-RIDF model gives the same performance results as that of the Genetic Algorithm (GA) according to various error evaluation criteria. The PSO-RIDF model shows better performance than GA formulas when the number of parameters increases. It has also been observed that the length of the data set and the chosen formulation are influential on model performance. The weighting parameters of the RIDF model may be determined with PSO algorithm in one-stage instead of any statistical computations and/or trial-error procedure. © 2012 Korean Society of Civil Engineers and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg