Unrelated Future Costs and Unrelated Future Benefits : Reflections on NICE Guide to the Methods of Technology Appraisal

In this editorial, we consider the vexing issue of 'unrelated future costs' (for example, the costs of caring for people with dementia or kidney failure after preventing their deaths from a heart attack). The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance is not to take such costs into account in technology appraisals. However, standard appraisal practice involves modelling the benefits of those unrelated technologies. We argue that there is a sound principled reason for including both the costs and benefits of unrelated care. Changing this practice would have material consequences for decisions about reimbursing particular technologies, and we urge future research to understand this better. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Prevalence of childhood disability and the characteristics and circumstances of disabled children in the UK : secondary analysis of the Family Resources Survey

Background: Robust data on the prevalence of childhood disability and the circumstances and characteristics of disabled children is crucial to understanding the relationship between impairment and social disadvantage. It is also crucial for public policy development aimed at reducing the prevalence of childhood disability and providing appropriate and timely service provision. This paper reports prevalence rates for childhood disability in the United Kingdom (UK) and describes the social and household circumstances of disabled children, comparing these where appropriate to those of non-disabled children. Methods: Data were generated from secondary analysis of the Family Resources Survey, a national UK cross-sectional survey, (2004/5) which had data on 16,012 children aged 0-18 years. Children were defined as disabled if they met the Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) definition (1995 and 2005). Frequency distributions and cross-tabulations were run to establish prevalence estimates, and describe the circumstances of disabled children. To establish the association between individual social and material factors and childhood disability when other factors were controlled for, logistic regression models were fitted on the dependent variable 'DDA defined disability'. Results: 7.3% (CI 6.9, 7.7) of UK children were reported by as disabled according to the DDA definition. Patterns of disability differed between sexes with boys having a higher rate overall and more likely than girls to experience difficulties with physical coordination; memory, concentration and learning; communication. Disabled children lived in different personal situations from their non-disabled counterparts, and were more likely to live with low-income, deprivation, debt and poor housing. This was particularly the case for disabled children from black/minority ethnic/ mixed parentage groups and lone-parent households. Childhood disability was associated with lone parenthood and parental disability and these associations persisted when social disadvantage was controlled for. Conclusion: These analyses suggest that UK disabled children experience higher levels of poverty and personal and social disadvantage than other children. Further research is required to establish accurate prevalence estimates of childhood disability among different black and minority ethnic groups and to understand the associations between childhood disability and lone parenthood and the higher rates of sibling and parental disability in households with disabled children

Association between 5-HT2A, TPH1 and GNB3 genotypes and response to typical neuroleptics: a serotonergic approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Schizophrenia is a common psychiatric disease affecting about 1% of population. One major problem in the treatment is finding the right the drug for the right patients. However, pharmacogenetic results in psychiatry can seldom be replicated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We selected three candidate genes associated with serotonergic neurotransmission for the study: serotonin 2A (<it>5-HT2A</it>) receptor gene, tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (<it>TPH1</it>) gene, and G-protein beta-3 subunit (<it>GNB3</it>) gene. We recruited 94 schizophrenia patients representing extremes in treatment response to typical neuroleptics: 43 were good responders and 51 were poor responders. The control group consisted of 392 healthy blood donors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We do, in part, replicate the association between <it>5-HT2A </it>T102C polymorphism and response to typical neuroleptics. In female patients, C/C genotype was significantly more common in non-responders than in responders [OR = 6.04 (95% Cl 1.67–21.93), p = 0.005] or in the control population [OR = 4.16 (95% CI 1.46–11.84), p = 0.005]. <it>TPH1 </it>A779C C/A genotype was inversely associated with good treatment response when compared with non-responders [OR = 0.59 (95% Cl 0.36–0.98), p = 0.030] or with the controls [OR = 0.44 (95% CI 0.23–0.86, p = 0.016], and <it>GNB3 </it>C825T C/T genotype showed a trend-like positive association among the male patients with a good response compared with non-responders [OR = 3.48 (95% Cl 0.92–13.25), p = 0.061], and a clearer association when compared with the controls [OR = 4.95 (95% CI 1.56–15.70), p = 0.004].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>More findings on the consequences of functional polymorphisms for the role of serotonin in the development of brain and serotonergic neurotransmission are needed before more detailed hypotheses regarding susceptibility and outcome in schizophrenia can be formulated. The present results may highlight some of the biological mechanisms in different courses of schizophrenia between men and women.</p

Hospital Readmission in General Medicine Patients: A Prediction Model

Background: Previous studies of hospital readmission have focused on specific conditions or populations and generated complex prediction models. Objective: To identify predictors of early hospital readmission in a diverse patient population and derive and validate a simple model for identifying patients at high readmission risk. Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Patients: Participants encompassed 10,946 patients discharged home from general medicine services at six academic medical centers and were randomly divided into derivation (n = 7,287) and validation (n = 3,659) cohorts. Measurements: We identified readmissions from administrative data and 30-day post-discharge telephone follow-up. Patient-level factors were grouped into four categories: sociodemographic factors, social support, health condition, and healthcare utilization. We performed logistic regression analysis to identify significant predictors of unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge and developed a scoring system for estimating readmission risk. Results: Approximately 17.5% of patients were readmitted in each cohort. Among patients in the derivation cohort, seven factors emerged as significant predictors of early readmission: insurance status, marital status, having a regular physician, Charlson comorbidity index, SF12 physical component score, ≥1 admission(s) within the last year, and current length of stay >2 days. A cumulative risk score of ≥25 points identified 5% of patients with a readmission risk of approximately 30% in each cohort. Model discrimination was fair with a c-statistic of 0.65 and 0.61 for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusions: Select patient characteristics easily available shortly after admission can be used to identify a subset of patients at elevated risk of early readmission. This information may guide the efficient use of interventions to prevent readmission

The human early-life exposome (HELIX): project rationale and design

Background: Developmental periods in early life may be particularly vulnerable to impacts of environmental exposures. Human research on this topic has generally focused on single exposure–health effect relationships. The “exposome” concept encompasses the totality of exposures from conception onward, complementing the genome. Objectives: The Human Early-Life Exposome (HELIX) project is a new collaborative research project that aims to implement novel exposure assessment and biomarker methods to characterize early-life exposure to multiple environmental factors and associate these with omics biomarkers and child health outcomes, thus characterizing the “early-life exposome.” Here we describe the general design of the project. Methods: In six existing birth cohort studies in Europe, HELIX will estimate prenatal and postnatal exposure to a broad range of chemical and physical exposures. Exposure models will be developed for the full cohorts totaling 32,000 mother–child pairs, and biomarkers will be measured in a subset of 1,200 mother–child pairs. Nested repeat-sampling panel studies (n = 150) will collect data on biomarker variability, use smartphones to assess mobility and physical activity, and perform personal exposure monitoring. Omics techniques will determine molecular profiles (metabolome, proteome, transcriptome, epigenome) associated with exposures. Statistical methods for multiple exposures will provide exposure–response estimates for fetal and child growth, obesity, neurodevelopment, and respiratory outcomes. A health impact assessment exercise will evaluate risks and benefits of combined exposures. Conclusions: HELIX is one of the first attempts to describe the early-life exposome of European populations and unravel its relation to omics markers and health in childhood. As proof of concept, it will form an important first step toward the life-course exposome

Clonogenic growth of human breast cancer cells co-cultured in direct contact with serum-activated fibroblasts

INTRODUCTION: Accumulating evidence suggests that fibroblasts play a pivotal role in promoting the growth of breast cancer cells. The objective of the present study was to characterize and validate an in vitro model of the interaction between small numbers of human breast cancer cells and human fibroblasts. METHODS: We measured the clonogenic growth of small numbers of human breast cancer cells co-cultured in direct contact with serum-activated, normal human fibroblasts. Using DNA microarrays, we also characterized the gene expression profile of the serum-activated fibroblasts. In order to validate the in vivo relevance of our experiments, we then analyzed clinical samples of metastatic breast cancer for the presence of myofibroblasts expressing α-smooth muscle actin. RESULTS: Clonogenic growth of human breast cancer cells obtained directly from in situ and invasive tumors was dramatically and consistently enhanced when the tumor cells were co-cultured in direct contact with serum-activated fibroblasts. This effect was abolished when the cells were co-cultured in transwells separated by permeable inserts. The fibroblasts in our experimental model exhibited a gene expression signature characteristic of 'serum response' (i.e. myofibroblasts). Immunostaining of human samples of metastatic breast cancer tissue confirmed that myofibroblasts are in direct contact with breast cancer cells. CONCLUSION: Serum-activated fibroblasts promote the clonogenic growth of human breast cancer cells in vitro through a mechanism that involves direct physical contact between the cells. This model shares many important molecular and phenotypic similarities with the fibroblasts that are naturally found in breast cancers

Economic Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Strategies in Singapore

BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines

A short food frequency questionnaire to assess intake of seafood and n-3 supplements: validation with biomarkers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Seafood intake is associated with beneficial effects for human health. Seafood provides a number of nutrients beyond the traditionally known long chain marine n-3 fatty acids EPA, DPA and DHA, such as protein, vitamin D, iodine, selenium and vitamin B₁₂. Valid assessment of dietary seafood and n-3 supplement intakes are becoming increasingly crucial when giving recommendations to populations as seafood consumption is regarded as an important part of a healthy and balanced diet.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The aim was to validate a short FFQ developed for assessment of dietary intake of seafood and n-3 supplements using the biomarkers marine n-3 fatty acids in erythrocytes and 25(OH)D in serum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fifty-three healthy Norwegians aged 30-64 years with a mean BMI of 25 kg/m²were compliant with the study protocol. 70% reported eating seafood for dinner one to two times per week, and 45% reported to eat seafood as spread, in salads or as snack meal three to five times or more per week. The FFQ correlated significantly with both the levels of marine n-3 fatty acids (r = 0.73, p < 0.0001) and with 25(OH)D (r = 0.37, p < 0.01). Mean level of marine n-3 and of 25(OH)D were 232 ± 65 μg/g erythrocytes and 73 ± 33 nmol/L serum, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present short FFQ predicted strongly the levels of marine n-3 fatty acids in erythrocytes, and predicted fairly good the level of serum 25(OH)D and may therefore be a valid method for assessment of seafood and n-3 supplements intake among adults.</p