Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

State–Space Forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali

Adequate forecasting and early warning systems are based upon observations of human behavior, population, disease time-series, climate, environment, and/or a combination thereof, whichever option best compromises among realism, feasibility, robustness, and parsimony. Fully automatic and user-friendly state–space forecasting frameworks, incorporating myriad options (e.g., expert opinion, univariate, multivariate, and spatial-temporal), could considerably enhance disease control and hazard mitigation efforts in regions where vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases is pervasive and statistical expertise is scarce. The operational simplicity, generality, and flexibility of state–space frameworks, encapsulating multiple methods, could conveniently allow for 1) unsupervised model selection without disease-specific methodological tailoring, 2) on-line adaptation to disease time-series fluctuations, and 3) automatic switches between distinct forecasting methods as new time-series perturbations dictate. In this investigation, a univariate state–space framework with the aforementioned properties was successfully applied to the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, to automatically generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts and hence, providing a basis for local re-organization and strengthening public health programs in this and potentially other Sahelian districts

Decision-making, cognitive distortions and alcohol use in adolescent problem and non-problem gamblers: an experimental study

In the psychological literature, many studies have investigated the neuropsychological and behavioral changes that occur developmentally during adolescence. These studies have consistently observed a deficit in the decision-making ability of children and adolescents. This deficit has been ascribed to incomplete brain development. The same deficit has also been observed in adult problem and pathological gamblers. However, to date, no study has examined decision-making in adolescents with and without gambling problems. Furthermore, no study has ever examined associations between problem gambling, decision-making, cognitive distortions and alcohol use in youth. To address these issues, 104 male adolescents participated in this study. They were equally divided in two groups, problem gamblers and non-problem gamblers, based on South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised for Adolescents scores. All participants performed the Iowa Gambling Task and completed the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Adolescent problem gamblers displayed impaired decision-making, reported high cognitive distortions, and had more problematic alcohol use compared to non-problem gamblers. Strong correlations between problem gambling, alcohol use, and cognitive distortions were observed. Decision-making correlated with interpretative bias. This study demonstrated that adolescent problem gamblers appear to have the same psychological profile as adult problem gamblers and that gambling involvement can negatively impact on decision-making ability that, in adolescence, is still developing. The correlations between interpretative bias and decision-making suggested that the beliefs in the ability to influence gambling outcomes may facilitate decision-making impairment

Bordetella pertussis Infection Exacerbates Influenza Virus Infection through Pertussis Toxin-Mediated Suppression of Innate Immunity

Pertussis (whooping cough) is frequently complicated by concomitant infections with respiratory viruses. Here we report the effect of Bordetella pertussis infection on subsequent influenza virus (PR8) infection in mouse models and the role of pertussis toxin (PT) in this effect. BALB/c mice infected with a wild-type strain of B. pertussis (WT) and subsequently (up to 14 days later) infected with PR8 had significantly increased pulmonary viral titers, lung pathology and mortality compared to mice similarly infected with a PT-deficient mutant strain (ΔPT) and PR8. Substitution of WT infection by intranasal treatment with purified active PT was sufficient to replicate the exacerbating effects on PR8 infection in BALB/c and C57/BL6 mice, but the effects of PT were lost when toxin was administered 24 h after virus inoculation. PT had no effect on virus titers in primary cultures of murine tracheal epithelial cells (mTECs) in vitro, suggesting the toxin targets an early immune response to increase viral titers in the mouse model. However, type I interferon responses were not affected by PT. Whole genome microarray analysis of gene expression in lung tissue from PT-treated and control PR8-infected mice at 12 and 36 h post-virus inoculation revealed that PT treatment suppressed numerous genes associated with communication between innate and adaptive immune responses. In mice depleted of alveolar macrophages, increase of pulmonary viral titers by PT treatment was lost. PT also suppressed levels of IL-1β, IL-12, IFN-γ, IL-6, KC, MCP-1 and TNF-α in the airways after PR8 infection. Furthermore PT treatment inhibited early recruitment of neutrophils and NK cells to the airways. Together these findings demonstrate that infection with B. pertussis through PT activity predisposes the host to exacerbated influenza infection by countering protective innate immune responses that control virus titers

Selective Cholinergic Depletion in Medial Septum Leads to Impaired Long Term Potentiation and Glutamatergic Synaptic Currents in the Hippocampus

Cholinergic depletion in the medial septum (MS) is associated with impaired hippocampal-dependent learning and memory. Here we investigated whether long term potentiation (LTP) and synaptic currents, mediated by alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-isoxazole-4-propionate (AMPA) and N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors in the CA1 hippocampal region, are affected following cholinergic lesions of the MS. Stereotaxic intra-medioseptal infusions of a selective immunotoxin, 192-saporin, against cholinergic neurons or sterile saline were made in adult rats. Four days after infusions, hippocampal slices were made and LTP, whole cell, and single channel (AMPA or NMDA receptor) currents were recorded. Results demonstrated impairment in the induction and expression of LTP in lesioned rats. Lesioned rats also showed decreases in synaptic currents from CA1 pyramidal cells and synaptosomal single channels of AMPA and NMDA receptors. Our results suggest that MS cholinergic afferents modulate LTP and glutamatergic currents in the CA1 region of the hippocampus, providing a potential synaptic mechanism for the learning and memory deficits observed in the rodent model of selective MS cholinergic lesioning

Tracking Endogenous Amelogenin and Ameloblastin In Vivo

Research on enamel matrix proteins (EMPs) is centered on understanding their role in enamel biomineralization and their bioactivity for tissue engineering. While therapeutic application of EMPs has been widely documented, their expression and biological function in non-enamel tissues is unclear. Our first aim was to screen for amelogenin (AMELX) and ameloblastin (AMBN) gene expression in mandibular bones and soft tissues isolated from adult mice (15 weeks old). Using RT-PCR, we showed mRNA expression of AMELX and AMBN in mandibular alveolar and basal bones and, at low levels, in several soft tissues; eyes and ovaries were RNA-positive for AMELX and eyes, tongues and testicles for AMBN. Moreover, in mandibular tissues AMELX and AMBN mRNA levels varied according to two parameters: 1) ontogenic stage (decreasing with age), and 2) tissue-type (e.g. higher level in dental epithelial cells and alveolar bone when compared to basal bone and dental mesenchymal cells in 1 week old mice). In situ hybridization and immunohistodetection were performed in mandibular tissues using AMELX KO mice as controls. We identified AMELX-producing (RNA-positive) cells lining the adjacent alveolar bone and AMBN and AMELX proteins in the microenvironment surrounding EMPs-producing cells. Western blotting of proteins extracted by non-dissociative means revealed that AMELX and AMBN are not exclusive to mineralized matrix; they are present to some degree in a solubilized state in mandibular bone and presumably have some capacity to diffuse. Our data support the notion that AMELX and AMBN may function as growth factor-like molecules solubilized in the aqueous microenvironment. In jaws, they might play some role in bone physiology through autocrine/paracrine pathways, particularly during development and stress-induced remodeling

Personalized early detection and prevention of breast cancer: ENVISION consensus statement

Abstract: The European Collaborative on Personalized Early Detection and Prevention of Breast Cancer (ENVISION) brings together several international research consortia working on different aspects of the personalized early detection and prevention of breast cancer. In a consensus conference held in 2019, the members of this network identified research areas requiring development to enable evidence-based personalized interventions that might improve the benefits and reduce the harms of existing breast cancer screening and prevention programmes. The priority areas identified were: 1) breast cancer subtype-specific risk assessment tools applicable to women of all ancestries; 2) intermediate surrogate markers of response to preventive measures; 3) novel non-surgical preventive measures to reduce the incidence of breast cancer of poor prognosis; and 4) hybrid effectiveness–implementation research combined with modelling studies to evaluate the long-term population outcomes of risk-based early detection strategies. The implementation of such programmes would require health-care systems to be open to learning and adapting, the engagement of a diverse range of stakeholders and tailoring to societal norms and values, while also addressing the ethical and legal issues. In this Consensus Statement, we discuss the current state of breast cancer risk prediction, risk-stratified prevention and early detection strategies, and their implementation. Throughout, we highlight priorities for advancing each of these areas