Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme “Maunder Minimum-like” grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3–4 m s−1, with the largest changes occurring in January–February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate

Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Journal ArticlePublished versionFuture changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a signi fi cant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes

Processes Controlling Tropical Tropopause Temperature and Stratospheric Water Vapor in Climate Models

A warm bias in tropical tropopause temperature is found in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), in common with most models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). Key dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes influencing the tropical tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in climate models are investigated using the MetUM. A series of sensitivity experiments are run to separate the effects of vertical advection, ice optical and microphysical properties, convection, cirrus clouds, and atmospheric composition on simulated tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in the tropics. The numerical accuracy of the vertical advection, determined in the MetUM by the choice of interpolation and conservation schemes used, is found to be particularly important. Microphysical and radiative processes are found to influence stratospheric water vapor both through modifying the tropical tropopause temperature and through modifying upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, allowing more water vapor to be advected into the stratosphere. The representation of any of the processes discussed can act to significantly reduce biases in tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor in a physical way, thereby improving climate simulations

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling

Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability: Data and code used to produce all figures and tables can be found at this site: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3675313Simple models of wave-mean flow interaction in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere suggest the existence of subseasonal vacillations in the strength of the polar vortex. Here, we define a sinusoidal fit to the daily deseasonalized stratospheric wind. A suitable fixed period and amplitude for the sine waves is identified. Their mean value, equivalent to polar vortex strength, and phase, equivalent to the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings during winter, varies from year to year. These vacillations explain much of the subseasonal and interannual variability in the monthly mean vortex strength and, consistent with wave-mean flow interaction theory, their amplitude correlates positively with the magnitude of winter mean planetary wave driving. Furthermore, they allow skillful prediction of the vortex strength one month ahead. Identifying and understanding this subseasonal variability has potential implications for winter seasonal forecasts, as the December–February mean behavior may miss important subseasonal events.National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNewton Fun

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions

Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry–climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users

Nuclear poly(ADP-ribose) activity is a therapeutic target in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Abstract Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating and fatal motor neuron disease. Diagnosis typically occurs in the fifth decade of life and the disease progresses rapidly leading to death within ~ 2–5 years of symptomatic onset. There is no cure, and the few available treatments offer only a modest extension in patient survival. A protein central to ALS is the nuclear RNA/DNA-binding protein, TDP-43. In > 95% of ALS patients, TDP-43 is cleared from the nucleus and forms phosphorylated protein aggregates in the cytoplasm of affected neurons and glia. We recently defined that poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR) activity regulates TDP-43-associated toxicity. PAR is a posttranslational modification that is attached to target proteins by PAR polymerases (PARPs). PARP-1 and PARP-2 are the major enzymes that are active in the nucleus. Here, we uncovered that the motor neurons of the ALS spinal cord were associated with elevated nuclear PAR, suggesting elevated PARP activity. Veliparib, a small-molecule inhibitor of nuclear PARP-1/2, mitigated the formation of cytoplasmic TDP-43 aggregates in mammalian cells. In primary spinal-cord cultures from rat, Veliparib also inhibited TDP-43-associated neuronal death. These studies uncover that PAR activity is misregulated in the ALS spinal cord, and a small-molecular inhibitor of PARP-1/2 activity may have therapeutic potential in the treatment of ALS and related disorders associated with abnormal TDP-43 homeostasis

The cost-effectiveness of early noninvasive ventilation for ALS patients

BACKGROUND: Optimal timing of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) initiation in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is unknown, but NIPPV appears to benefit ALS patients who are symptomatic from pulmonary insufficiency. This has prompted research proposals of earlier NIPPV initiation in the ALS disease course in an attempt to further improve ALS patient quality of life and perhaps survival. We therefore used a cost-utility analysis to determine a priori what magnitude of health-related quality of life (HRQL) improvement early NIPPV initiation would need to achieve to be cost-effective in a future clinical trial. METHODS: Using a Markov decision analytic model we calculated the benefit in health-state utility that NIPPV initiated at ALS diagnosis must achieve to be cost-effective. The primary outcome was the percent utility gained through NIPPV in relation to two common willingness-to-pay thresholds: $50,000 and$100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: Our results indicate that if NIPPV begun at the time of diagnosis improves ALS patient HRQL as little as 13.5%, it would be a cost-effective treatment. Tolerance of NIPPV (assuming a 20% improvement in HRQL) would only need to exceed 18% in our model for treatment to remain cost-effective using a conservative willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: If early use of NIPPV in ALS patients is shown to improve HRQL in future studies, it is likely to be a cost-effective treatment. Clinical trials of NIPPV begun at the time of ALS diagnosis are therefore warranted from a cost-effectiveness standpoint

Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry‐climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models