Chapter 2 - Integrated risk and uncertainty assessment of climate change response policies

This framing chapter considers ways in which risk and uncertainty can affect the process and outcome of strategic choices in responding to the threat of climate change

Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies

Review of Uncertainty and climate chang

Mendelian randomisation analyses of UK Biobank and published data suggest that increased adiposity lowers risk of breast and prostate cancer

Copyright © The Authors 2022. Breast (BCa) and prostate (PrCa) cancer are the first and second most common types of cancer in women and men, respectively. We aimed to explore the causal effect of adiposity on BCa and PrCa risk in the UK Biobank and published data. We used Mendelian randomisation (MR) to assess the causal effect of body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BFP), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) on BCa and PrCa risk. We found that increased BMI, WC and HC decreased the risk of breast cancer (OR 0.70 per 5.14 kg/m2 [0.59–0.85, p = 2.1 × 10–4], 0.76 per 12.49 cm [60–0.97, p = 0.028] and 0.73 per 10.31 cm [0.59–0.90, p = 3.7 × 10–3], respectively) and increased WC and BMI decreased the risk of prostate cancer (0.68 per 11.32 cm [0.50–0.91, p = 0.01] and 0.76 per 10.23 kg/m2 [0.61–0.95, p = 0.015], respectively) in UK Biobank participants. We confirmed our results with a two-sample-MR of published data. In conclusion, our results suggest a protective effect of adiposity on the risk of BCa and PrCa highlighting the need to re-evaluate the role of adiposity as cancer risk factor.Brunel Research Initiative and Enterprise Fund; HAA is the recipient of a PhD studentship from the College of Health and Life Sciences, Brunel University London

Genome-wide association studies in asthma

Asthma is a complex respiratory disease, with both genetic and environmental factors contributing to disease susceptibility. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have now identified novel risk alleles and loci associated with asthma diagnosis and more recently with clinical subgroups of disease. However, while providing insight into potential disease mechanisms these risk alleles have modest effect sizes and account for a small proportion of the anticipated heritability of asthma. In this article we provide an overview of GWAS in asthma to date including reproducible associations and advances in our understanding of the biology of asthma. In addition we discuss ancestry-specific findings and how genetics may contribute to the development of multiple allergic conditions known as the ‘atopic march’. Finally, we outline the strengths and weaknesses of GWAS and look to future approaches including a greater focus to functional variation and assessment of gene–gene and gene–environment interactions

Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment - Sufficient protection against mixture effects?

© 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central LtdThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an incentive to generate better data and recommend adopting a pragmatic, but scientifically better founded approach to mixture risk assessment. © 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Oak Foundatio

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008

Pleosporales

One hundred and five generic types of Pleosporales are described and illustrated. A brief introduction and detailed history with short notes on morphology, molecular phylogeny as well as a general conclusion of each genus are provided. For those genera where the type or a representative specimen is unavailable, a brief note is given. Altogether 174 genera of Pleosporales are treated. Phaeotrichaceae as well as Kriegeriella, Zeuctomorpha and Muroia are excluded from Pleosporales. Based on the multigene phylogenetic analysis, the suborder Massarineae is emended to accommodate five families, viz. Lentitheciaceae, Massarinaceae, Montagnulaceae, Morosphaeriaceae and Trematosphaeriaceae

Measurement of the top quark mass using the matrix element technique in dilepton final states

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in pp¯ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data were collected by the D0 experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9.7  fb−1. The matrix element technique is applied to tt¯ events in the final state containing leptons (electrons or muons) with high transverse momenta and at least two jets. The calibration of the jet energy scale determined in the lepton+jets final state of tt¯ decays is applied to jet energies. This correction provides a substantial reduction in systematic uncertainties. We obtain a top quark mass of mt=173.93±1.84  GeV