Updated observing scenarios and multi-messenger implications for the International Gravitational-wave Network's O4 and O5

Advanced LIGO and Virgo's third observing run brought another binary neutron star merger (BNS) and the first neutron-star black-hole (NSBH) mergers. While no confirmed kilonovae (KNe) was identified in conjunction with any of these events, continued improvements of analyses surrounding GW170817 allow us to project constraints on the Hubble Constant ($H_0$), the Galactic enrichment from $r$-process nucleosynthesis, and ultra-dense matter possible from forthcoming events. Here, we describe the expected constraints based on the latest expected event rates from the international gravitational-wave network (IGWN) and analyses of GW170817. We show the expected detection rate of gravitational waves and their counterparts, as well as how sensitive potential constraints are to the observed numbers of counterparts. We intend this analysis as support for the community when creating scientifically-driven electromagnetic follow-up proposals. During the next observing run O4, we predict an annual detection rate of electromagnetic counterparts from BNS of $0.43^{+0.58}_{-0.26}$ ($1.97^{+2.68}_{-1.2}$) for the Zwicky Transient Facility (Rubin Observatory)

Legal Report on the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries in Benin : An Analysis of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries in Selected National Policy and Legal Instruments of Benin

Legislating for an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) is complex, due to the holistic nature of EAF involving multiple factors that underpin the social, economic, environmental, and institutional aspects of fisheries sustainability. These factors include ecosystems integration, risks, inter-sectoral collaboration, research, participatory processes, monitoring, control, surveillance, and enforcement, among others. To assess how an EAF is being implemented through national policy and legal frameworks, FAO developed A diagnostic tool for implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries through national policy and legal frameworks. The present legal report on the EAF used the diagnostic tool to assess the alignment of selected policy and legal instruments of Benin with an EAF. This assessment analysed the extent to which 82 EAF legal requirements, which are considered the minimum standards in legislating for an EAF, are reflected in Benin 's policies and legislation relevant to the fisheries sector of the country and other relevant sectors (such as environment, wildlife, ecosystems, and maritime affairs). Based on this preliminary diagnosis, gaps were identified in the assessed instruments, and recommendations were made for improving the implementation of an EAF. This report was elaborated following a participatory approach with the involvement of the national competent authorities of Benin. Drafted in July 2021, the report was submitted to the national authorities of Benin in October 2021. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of Benin reviewed and endorsed this EAF Legal Repot of Benin in July 2022

Anomalously steep dips of earthquakes in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki source region and possible explanations

Keywords: subduction zone the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake focal mechanism fault geometry seamount fault zone structure a b s t r a c t The 2011 M w 9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake had unusually large slip (over 50 m) concentrated in a relatively small region, with local stress drop inferred to be 5-10 times larger than that found for typical megathrust earthquakes. Here we conduct a detailed analysis of foreshocks and aftershocks (M w 5.5-7.5) sampling this megathrust zone for possible clues regarding such differences in seismic excitation. We find that events occurring in the region that experienced large slip during the M w 9.1 event had steeper dip angles (by 5-101) than the surrounding plate interface. This discrepancy cannot be explained by a single smooth plate interface. We provide three possible explanations. In Model I, the oceanic plate undergoes two sharp breaks in slope, which were not imaged well in previous seismic surveys. These break-points may have acted as strong seismic barriers in previous seismic ruptures, but may have failed in and contributed to the complex rupture pattern of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In Model II, the discrepancy of dip angles is caused by a rough plate interface, which in turn may be the underlying cause for the overall strong coupling and concentrated energy-release. In Model III, the earthquakes with steeper dip angles did not occur on the plate interface, but on nearby steeper subfaults. Since the differences in dip angle are only 5-101, this last explanation would imply that the main fault has about the same strength as the nearby subfaults, rather than much weaker. A relatively uniform fault zone with both the main fault and the subfaults inside is consistent with Model III. Higher resolution source locations and improved models of the velocity structure of the megathrust fault zone are necessary to resolve these issues

Anomalously steep dips of earthquakes in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki source region and possible explanations

The 2011 M_w 9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake had unusually large slip (over 50 m) concentrated in a relatively small region, with local stress drop inferred to be 5–10 times larger than that found for typical megathrust earthquakes. Here we conduct a detailed analysis of foreshocks and aftershocks (M_w 5.5–7.5) sampling this megathrust zone for possible clues regarding such differences in seismic excitation. We find that events occurring in the region that experienced large slip during the M_w 9.1 event had steeper dip angles (by 5–10°) than the surrounding plate interface. This discrepancy cannot be explained by a single smooth plate interface. We provide three possible explanations. In Model I, the oceanic plate undergoes two sharp breaks in slope, which were not imaged well in previous seismic surveys. These break-points may have acted as strong seismic barriers in previous seismic ruptures, but may have failed in and contributed to the complex rupture pattern of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In Model II, the discrepancy of dip angles is caused by a rough plate interface, which in turn may be the underlying cause for the overall strong coupling and concentrated energy-release. In Model III, the earthquakes with steeper dip angles did not occur on the plate interface, but on nearby steeper subfaults. Since the differences in dip angle are only 5–10°, this last explanation would imply that the main fault has about the same strength as the nearby subfaults, rather than much weaker. A relatively uniform fault zone with both the main fault and the subfaults inside is consistent with Model III. Higher resolution source locations and improved models of the velocity structure of the megathrust fault zone are necessary to resolve these issues

Atorvastatin prevents Plasmodium falciparum cytoadherence and endothelial damage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The adhesion of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>parasitized red blood cell (PRBC) to human endothelial cells (EC) induces inflammatory processes, coagulation cascades, oxidative stress and apoptosis. These pathological processes are suspected to be responsible for the blood-brain-barrier and other organs' endothelial dysfunctions observed in fatal cases of malaria. Atorvastatin, a drug that belongs to the lowering cholesterol molecule family of statins, has been shown to ameliorate endothelial functions and is widely used in patients with cardiovascular disorders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The effect of this compound on PRBC induced endothelial impairments was assessed using endothelial co-culture models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Atorvastatin pre-treatment of EC was found to reduce the expression of adhesion molecules and <it>P. falciparum </it>cytoadherence, to protect cells against PRBC-induced apoptosis and to enhance endothelial monolayer integrity during co-incubation with parasites.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results might suggest a potential interest use of atorvastatin as a protective treatment to interfere with the pathophysiological cascades leading to severe malaria.</p

Xpert mycobacterium tuberculosis/rifampicin-detected rifampicin resistance is a suboptimal surrogate for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo : diagnostic and clinical implications

CITATION: Bisimwa, B. C. et al. 2020. Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis/Rifampicin–Detected Rifampicin Resistance is a Suboptimal Surrogate for Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: Diagnostic and Clinical Implications. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 73(2):e362–e370. doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa873The original publication is available at https://academic.oup.com/cid/Background Rifampicin (RIF) resistance is highly correlated with isoniazid (INH) resistance and used as proxy for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Using MTBDRplus as a comparator, we evaluated the predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert)–detected RIF resistance for MDR-TB in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study involving data from new or retreatment pulmonary adult TB cases evaluated between July 2013 and December 2016. Separate, paired sputa for smear microscopy and MTBDRplus were collected. Xpert testing was performed subject to the availability of Xpert cartridges on sample remnants after microscopy. Results Among 353 patients, 193 (54.7%) were previously treated and 224 (63.5%) were MTBDRplus TB positive. Of the 224, 43 (19.2%) were RIF monoresistant, 11 (4.9%) were INH monoresistant, 53 (23.7%) had MDR-TB, and 117 (52.2%) were RIF and INH susceptible. Overall, among the 96 samples detected by MTBDRplus as RIF resistant, 53 (55.2%) had MDR-TB. Xpert testing was performed in 179 (50.7%) specimens; among these, 163 (91.1%) were TB positive and 73 (44.8%) RIF resistant. Only 45/73 (61.6%) Xpert-identified RIF-resistant isolates had concomitant MTBDRplus-detected INH resistance. Xpert had a sensitivity of 100.0% (95% CI, 92.1–100.0) for detecting RIF resistance but a positive-predictive value of only 61.6% (95% CI, 49.5–72.8) for MDR-TB. The most frequent mutations associated with RIF and INH resistance were S531L and S315T1, respectively. Conclusions In this high-risk MDR-TB study population, Xpert had low positive-predictive value for the presence of MDR-TB. Comprehensive resistance testing for both INH and RIF should be performed in this setting.https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/73/2/e362/5863452?login=truePublishers versio

Inhibition of Plasmodium falciparum Field Isolates-Mediated Endothelial Cell Apoptosis by Fasudil: Therapeutic Implications for Severe Malaria

Plasmodium falciparum infection can abruptly progress to severe malaria, a life-threatening complication resulting from sequestration of parasitized red blood cells (PRBC) in the microvasculature of various organs such as the brain and lungs. PRBC adhesion can induce endothelial cell (EC) activation and apoptosis, thereby disrupting the blood-brain barrier. Moreover, hemozoin, the malarial pigment, induces the erythroid precursor apoptosis. Despite the current efficiency of antimalarial drugs in killing parasites, severe malaria still causes up to one million deaths every year. A new strategy targeting both parasite elimination and EC protection is urgently needed in the field. Recently, a rho-kinase inhibitior Fasudil, a drug already in clinical use in humans for cardio- and neuro-vascular diseases, was successfully tested on laboratory strains of P. falciparum to protect and to reverse damages of the endothelium. We therefore assessed herein whether Fasudil would have a similar efficiency on P. falciparum taken directly from malaria patients using contact and non-contact experiments. Seven (23.3%) of 30 PRBC preparations from different patients were apoptogenic, four (13.3%) acting by cytoadherence and three (10%) via soluble factors. None of the apoptogenic PRBC preparations used both mechanisms indicating a possible mutual exclusion of signal transduction ligand. Three PRBC preparations (42.9%) induced EC apoptosis by cytoadherence after 4 h of coculture (“rapid transducers”), and four (57.1%) after a minimum of 24 h (“slow transducers”). The intensity of apoptosis increased with time. Interestingly, Fasudil inhibited EC apoptosis mediated both by cell-cell contact and by soluble factors but did not affect PRBC cytoadherence. Fasudil was found to be able to prevent endothelium apoptosis from all the P. falciparum isolates tested. Our data provide evidence of the strong anti-apoptogenic effect of Fasudil and show that endothelial cell-P. falciparum interactions are more complicated than previously thought. These findings may warrant clinical trials of Fasudil in severe malaria management

Introducing v0.5 of the AI Safety Benchmark from MLCommons

This paper introduces v0.5 of the AI Safety Benchmark, which has been created by the MLCommons AI Safety Working Group. The AI Safety Benchmark has been designed to assess the safety risks of AI systems that use chat-tuned language models. We introduce a principled approach to specifying and constructing the benchmark, which for v0.5 covers only a single use case (an adult chatting to a general-purpose assistant in English), and a limited set of personas (i.e., typical users, malicious users, and vulnerable users). We created a new taxonomy of 13 hazard categories, of which 7 have tests in the v0.5 benchmark. We plan to release version 1.0 of the AI Safety Benchmark by the end of 2024. The v1.0 benchmark will provide meaningful insights into the safety of AI systems. However, the v0.5 benchmark should not be used to assess the safety of AI systems. We have sought to fully document the limitations, flaws, and challenges of v0.5. This release of v0.5 of the AI Safety Benchmark includes (1) a principled approach to specifying and constructing the benchmark, which comprises use cases, types of systems under test (SUTs), language and context, personas, tests, and test items; (2) a taxonomy of 13 hazard categories with definitions and subcategories; (3) tests for seven of the hazard categories, each comprising a unique set of test items, i.e., prompts. There are 43,090 test items in total, which we created with templates; (4) a grading system for AI systems against the benchmark; (5) an openly available platform, and downloadable tool, called ModelBench that can be used to evaluate the safety of AI systems on the benchmark; (6) an example evaluation report which benchmarks the performance of over a dozen openly available chat-tuned language models; (7) a test specification for the benchmark

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation