Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992–2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean–atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land–atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.The authors thank Jeff Knight (Met Office Hadley Centre) for his constructive comments on earlier versions of this manuscript. The research leading to these results received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) SPECS project (Grant Agreement Number 308378) and H2020 Framework Programme IMPREX project (Grant Agreement Number 641811). Constantin Ardilouze was also supported by the BSC Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa Programme.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

School Absenteeism As an Adjunct Surveillance Indicator: Experience during the Second Wave of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Quebec, Canada

A school absenteeism surveillance system was implemented in the province of Quebec, Canada during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. This paper compares this surveillance approach with other available indicators.All (3432) elementary and high schools from Quebec were included. Each school was required to report through a web-based system any day where the proportion of students absent for influenza-like illness (ILI) exceeded 10% of current school enrolment.Between October 18 and December 12 2009, 35.6% of all schools met the 10% absenteeism threshold. This proportion was greater in elementary compared to high schools (40% vs 19%) and in smaller compared to larger schools (44% vs 22%). The maximum absenteeism rate was reached the first day of reporting or within the next two days in 55% and 31% of schools respectively. The first reports and subsequent peak in school absenteeism provincially preceded the peak in paediatric hospitalization by two and one weeks, respectively. Trends in school surveillance otherwise mirrored other indicators.During a pandemic, school outbreak surveillance based on a 10% threshold appears insufficient to trigger timely intervention within a given affected school. However, school surveillance appears well-correlated and slightly anticipatory compared to other population indicators. As such, school absenteeism warrants further evaluation as an adjunct surveillance indicator whose overall utility will depend upon specified objectives, and other existing capacity for monitoring and response

Water Cycle Changes

This chapter assesses multiple lines of evidence to evaluate past, present and future changes in the global water cycle. It complements material in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 on observed and projected changes in the water cycle, and Chapters 10 and 11 on regional climate change and extreme events. The assessment includes the physical basis for water cycle changes, observed changes in the water cycle and attribution of their causes, future projections and related key uncertainties, and the potential for abrupt change. Paleoclimate evidence, observations, reanalyses and global and regional model simulations are considered. The assessment shows widespread, nonuniform human-caused alterations of the water cycle, which have been obscured by a competition between different drivers across the 20th century and that will be increasingly dominated by greenhouse gas forcing at the global scale

Computational modelling of cancerous mutations in the EGFR/ERK signalling pathway

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2009 Orton et al.BACKGROUND: The Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) activated Extracellular-signal Regulated Kinase (ERK) pathway is a critical cell signalling pathway that relays the signal for a cell to proliferate from the plasma membrane to the nucleus. Deregulation of the EGFR/ERK pathway due to alterations affecting the expression or function of a number of pathway components has long been associated with numerous forms of cancer. Under normal conditions, Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF) stimulates a rapid but transient activation of ERK as the signal is rapidly shutdown. Whereas, under cancerous mutation conditions the ERK signal cannot be shutdown and is sustained resulting in the constitutive activation of ERK and continual cell proliferation. In this study, we have used computational modelling techniques to investigate what effects various cancerous alterations have on the signalling flow through the ERK pathway. RESULTS: We have generated a new model of the EGFR activated ERK pathway, which was verified by our own experimental data. We then altered our model to represent various cancerous situations such as Ras, B-Raf and EGFR mutations, as well as EGFR overexpression. Analysis of the models showed that different cancerous situations resulted in different signalling patterns through the ERK pathway, especially when compared to the normal EGF signal pattern. Our model predicts that cancerous EGFR mutation and overexpression signals almost exclusively via the Rap1 pathway, predicting that this pathway is the best target for drugs. Furthermore, our model also highlights the importance of receptor degradation in normal and cancerous EGFR signalling, and suggests that receptor degradation is a key difference between the signalling from the EGF and Nerve Growth Factor (NGF) receptors. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that different routes to ERK activation are being utilised in different cancerous situations which therefore has interesting implications for drug selection strategies. We also conducted a comparison of the critical differences between signalling from different growth factor receptors (namely EGFR, mutated EGFR, NGF, and Insulin) with our results suggesting the difference between the systems are large scale and can be attributed to the presence/absence of entire pathways rather than subtle difference in individual rate constants between the systems.This work was funded by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), under their Bioscience Beacon project programme. AG was funded by an industrial PhD studentship from Scottish Enterprise and Cyclacel

Geochemistry of abyssal peridotites (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 15°20′N, ODP Leg 209) : implications for fluid/rock interaction in slow spreading environments

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Chemical Geology 234 (2006): 179-210, doi:10.1016/j.chemgeo.2006.04.011.Abyssal peridotite from the 15°20’N area of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge show complex geochemical variations among the different sites drilled during ODP Leg 209. Major element compositions indicate variable degrees of melt depletion and refertilization as well as local hydrothermal metasomatism. Strongest evidence for melt-rock interactions are correlated Light Rare Earth Element (LREE) and High Field Strength Element (HFSE) additions at sites 1270 and 1271. In contrast, hydrothermal alteration at Sites 1274, 1272, and 1268 causes LREE mobility associated with minor HFSE variability, reflecting the low solubility of HFSE in aqueous solutions. Site 1274 contains the least-altered, highly refractory, peridotite with strong depletion in LREE and shows a gradual increase in the intensity of isochemical serpentinization; except for the addition of H2O which causes a mass gain of up to 20 g/100 g. The formation of magnetite is reflected in decreasing Fe2+/Fe3+ ratios. This style of alteration is referred to as rock-dominated serpentinization. In contrast, fluid-dominated serpentinization at Site 1268 is characterized by gains in sulfur and development of U-shaped REE pattern with strong positive Eu anomalies which are also characteristic for hot (350 to 400°C) vent-type fluids discharging from black smoker fields. Serpentinites at Site 1268 were overprinted by talc alteration under static conditions due to interaction with high aSiO2 fluids causing the development of smooth, LREE-enriched patterns with pronounced negative Eu anomalies. These results show that hydrothermal fluid-peridotite and fluid-serpentinite interaction processes are an important factor regarding the budget of exchange processes between the lithosphere and the hydrosphere in slow spreading environments.ODP is sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) and participating countries under management of Joint Oceanographic Institutions (JOI), Inc

Coordination and resource-related difficulties encountered by Quebec's public health specialists and infectious diseases/medical microbiologists in the management of A (H1N1) - a mixed-method, exploratory survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Quebec, the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was managed using a top-down style that left many involved players with critical views and frustrations. We aimed to describe physicians' perceptions - infectious diseases specialists/medical microbiologists (IDMM) and public health/preventive medicine specialists (PHPMS) - in regards to issues encountered with the pandemics management at the physician level and highlight suggested improvements for future healthcare emergencies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In April 2010, Quebec IDMM and PHPMS physicians were invited to anonymously complete a web-based learning needs assessment. The survey included both open-ended and multiple-choice questions. Descriptive statistics were used to report on the frequency distribution of multiple choice responses whereas thematic content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data generated from the survey and help understand respondents' experience and perceptions with the pandemics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 102 respondents, 85.3% reported difficulties or frustrations in their practice during the pandemic. The thematic analysis revealed two core themes describing the problems experienced in the pandemic management: coordination and resource-related difficulties. Coordination issues included communication, clinical practice guidelines, decision-making, roles and responsibilities, epidemiological investigation, and public health expert advisory committees. Resources issues included laboratory resources, patient management, and vaccination process.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Together, the quantitative and qualitative data suggest a need for improved coordination, a better definition of roles and responsibilities, increased use of information technologies, merged communications, and transparency in the decisional process. Increased flexibility and less contradiction in clinical practice guidelines from different sources and increased laboratory/clinical capacity were felt critical to the proper management of infectious disease emergencies.</p

Transrenal Deployment of a Modular Stent Graft to Repair AAAs with Short Necks: Experiments in Dogs

Severely angulated (&gt; 60°) or short (&lt; 15mm) proximal necks remain significant anatomical limitations for endovascular stent-graft repairs for abdominal aortic aneurysms. Ensuring proper proximal fixation of the stent-graft to the host artery without the short-or long-term risks of endoleak or migration represents a particular technical challenge for these anatomical circumstances. An innovative balloon expandable stent combined with a weft-knitted prosthesis was specifically designed for these situations by modelling the stent to the neck anatomy without overdistension or potential barotrauma allowing better incorporation of the device. The Latecba stent-graft consists of a 2 parts modular design. The first one, Module A, is deployed at the transrenal level and consists of a Palmaz type stent whose first half is bare and second half is sutured to a crimped weft-knitted polyester graft whose distal end holds a constriction. The second Module B is a non-crimped weft-knitted graft attached to 2 stainless steel stents. The first stent is entirely contained in the proximal textile tube, allowing fixation to module A. The second stent, which is left uncovered over the distal third, ensures proper fixation of the stent-graft distally. Following the creation of a prosthetic aneurysm in the infrarenal aorta in 32 dogs, 29 received the Latecba stent-graft for scheduled durations of 10 days, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months. Proper deployment of the stent-grafts was achieved without difficulty. All 29 animals survived and the devices were all patent at sacrifice. No device defects or migrations were observed and the stent-grafts proved to be efficient in this setting to exclude the aneurysm. Analyses of the explanted devices (gross observations, RX, CT scan, IVUS, angioscopy) confirmed the stability of this modular stent-graft. Further on-going clinical investigations are warranted to validate this concept before this stent-graft becomes commercially available without any restriction