Divergent occurrences of juvenile and adult trees are explained by both environmental change and ontogenetic effects

Recent climate warming has fueled interest into climate-driven range shifts of tree species. A common approach to detect range shifts is to compare the divergent occurrences between juvenile and adult trees along environmental gradients using static data. Divergent occurrences between life stages can, however, also be caused by ontogenetic effects. These include shifts of the viable environmental conditions throughout development (?ontogenetic niche shift') as well as demographic dependencies that constrain the possible occurrence of subsequent life stages. Whether ontogenetic effects are an important driver of divergent occurrences between juvenile and adult trees along large-scale climatic gradients is largely unknown. It is, however, critical in evaluating whether impacts of environmental change can be inferred from static data on life stage occurrences. Here, we first show theoretically, using a two-life stage simulation model, how both temporal range shift and ontogenetic effects can lead to similar divergent occurrences between adults and juveniles (juvenile divergence). We further demonstrate that juvenile divergence can unambiguously be attributed to ontogenetic effects, when juveniles diverge from adults in opposite direction to their temporal shift along the environmental gradient. Second, to empirically test whether ontogenetic effects are an important driver of divergent occurrences across Europe, we use repeated national forest inventories from Sweden, Germany and Spain to assess juvenile divergence and temporal shift for 40 tree species along large-scale climatic gradients. About half of the species-country combinations had significant juvenile divergences along heat sum and water availability gradients. Only a quarter of the tree species had significant detectable temporal shifts within the observation period. Furthermore, significant juvenile divergences were frequently associated with opposite temporal shifts, indicating that ontogenetic effects are a relevant cause of divergent occurrences between life stages. Our study furthers the understanding of ontogenetic effects and challenges the practice of inferring climate change impacts from static data.Universidad de AlcaláMinisterio de Ciencia e InnovaciónAgencia Estatal de Investigació

Neural processing of emotional facial stimuli in specific phobia: An fMRI study

Background Patients with specific phobia (SP) show altered brain activation when confronted with phobia-specific stimuli. It is unclear whether this pathogenic activation pattern generalizes to other emotional stimuli. This study addresses this question by employing a well-powered sample while implementing an established paradigm using nonspecific aversive facial stimuli. Methods N = 111 patients with SP, spider subtype, and N = 111 healthy controls (HCs) performed a supraliminal emotional face-matching paradigm contrasting aversive faces versus shapes in a 3-T magnetic resonance imaging scanner. We performed region of interest (ROI) analyses for the amygdala, the insula, and the anterior cingulate cortex using univariate as well as machine-learning-based multivariate statistics based on this data. Additionally, we investigated functional connectivity by means of psychophysiological interaction (PPI). Results Although the presentation of emotional faces showed significant activation in all three ROIs across both groups, no group differences emerged in all ROIs. Across both groups and in the HC > SP contrast, PPI analyses showed significant task-related connectivity of brain areas typically linked to higher-order emotion processing with the amygdala. The machine learning approach based on whole-brain activity patterns could significantly differentiate the groups with 73% balanced accuracy. Conclusions Patients suffering from SP are characterized by differences in the connectivity of the amygdala and areas typically linked to emotional processing in response to aversive facial stimuli (inferior parietal cortex, fusiform gyrus, middle cingulate, postcentral cortex, and insula). This might implicate a subtle difference in the processing of nonspecific emotional stimuli and warrants more research furthering our understanding of neurofunctional alteration in patients with SP.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Peer Reviewe

Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale

Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10–40% per century under current climate and 20–170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics

In vivo hippocampal subfield volumes in bipolar disorder—A mega-analysis from The Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis Bipolar Disorder Working Group

The hippocampus consists of anatomically and functionally distinct subfields that may be differentially involved in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD). Here we, the Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta‐Analysis Bipolar Disorder workinggroup, study hippocampal subfield volumetry in BD. T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans from 4,698 individuals (BD = 1,472, healthy controls [HC] = 3,226) from 23 sites worldwide were processed with FreeSurfer. We used linear mixed‐effects models and mega‐analysis to investigate differences in hippocampal subfield volumes between BD and HC, followed by analyses of clinical characteristics and medication use. BD showed significantly smaller volumes of the whole hippocampus (Cohen's d = −0.20), cornu ammonis (CA)1 (d = −0.18), CA2/3 (d = −0.11), CA4 (d = −0.19), molecular layer (d = −0.21), granule cell layer of dentate gyrus (d = −0.21), hippocampal tail (d = −0.10), subiculum (d = −0.15), presubiculum (d = −0.18), and hippocampal amygdala transition area (d = −0.17) compared to HC. Lithium users did not show volume differences compared to HC, while non‐users did. Antipsychotics or antiepileptic use was associated with smaller volumes. In this largest study of hippocampal subfields in BD to date, we show widespread reductions in nine of 12 subfields studied. The associations were modulated by medication use and specifically the lack of differences between lithium users and HC supports a possible protective role of lithium in BD

Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10,11,12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests

How to predict tree death from inventory data – Lessons from a systematic assessment of European tree mortality models

The future development of forest ecosystems depends critically on tree mortality. However, the suitability of empirical mortality algorithms for extrapolation in space or time remains untested. We systematically analyzed the performance of 46 inventory-based mortality models available from the literature using nearly 80000 independent records from 54 strict forest reserves in Germany and Switzerland covering 11 species. Mortality rates were predicted with higher accuracy if covariates for tree growth and/or competition at the individual level were included and if models were applied within the same ecological zone. In contrast, classification of dead vs. living trees was only improved by growth variables. Management intensity in the calibration stands as well as the census interval and size of the calibration datasets did not influence model performance. Consequently, future approaches should make use of tree growth and competition at the level of individual trees. Mortality algorithms for applications over a restricted spatial extent and under current climate should be calibrated based on datasets from the same region, even if they are small. To obtain models with wide applicability and enhanced climatic sensitivity, the spatial variability of mortality should be addressed explicitly by considering environmental influences using data of high temporal resolution covering large ecological gradients. Finally, such models need to be validated and documented thoroughly.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling

International audienceTree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple species. We analysed empirical MAs for a suite of European tree species within a consistent DVM framework under present and future climates in two climatically different study areas in Switzerland and evaluated their performance using empirical data from old-growth forests across Europe. DVM projections under present climate showed substantial variations when using alternative empirical MAs for the same species. Under climate change, DVM projections showed partly contrasting mortality responses for the same species. These opposing patterns were associated with MA structures (i.e. explanatory variables) and occurred independent of species ecological characteristics. When comparing simulated forest structure with data from old-growth forests, we found frequent overestimations of basal area, which can lead to flawed projections of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. While using empirical MAs in DVMs may appear promising, our results emphasize the importance of selecting them cautiously. We therefore synthesize our insights into a guideline for the appropriate use of empirical MAs in DVM applications

Natürliche Baummortalität in Mitteleuropa: Mortalitätsraten und -muster im Vergleich

ISSN:0036-7818ISSN:2235-146