The effect of wind and plume height reconstruction methods on the accuracy of simple plume models — a second look at the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Real-time monitoring of volcanic ash plumes with the aim to estimate the mass eruption rate is crucial for predicting atmospheric ash concentration. Mass eruption rates are usually assessed by 0D and 1D plume models, which are fast and require only a few observational input parameters, often only the plume height. A model’s output, however, depends also on the plume height data handling strategy (sampling rate, gap reconstruction methods and statistical treatment), especially in long-term eruptions with incomplete plume height records. Representing such an eruption, we used Eyjafjallajökull 2010 to test the sensitivity of six simple and two explicitly wind-affected plume models against 22 data handling strategies. Based on photogrammetric measurements, the wind deflection of the plume was determined and used to re-calibrate radar height data. The resulting data was then subjected to different data handling strategies, before being used as input for the plume models. The model results were compared to the erupted mass measured on the ground, allowing us to assess the prediction accuracy of each combination of data handling strategy and model. Combinations that provide highest prediction accuracies vary, depending on data coverage, eruptive strength, and fragmentation style. However, for this type of moderate to weak eruption, the most important factor was found to be the prevailing windspeed. When windspeeds exceed 20 m/s, most combinations of strategies and models provide predictions that underestimate the erupted mass by more than 40%. Under such conditions, the optimal choice of data handling strategy and plume model is of particularly relevance.The geo-referencing and photo analysis was conducted under the EU Framework 7 FutureVolc project (2012–2016). This work contributes to project MAXI-Plume, supported by the Icelandic Research Fund (Rannís), grant Nr. 206527-051. TD was supported by the IRF (Rannís) Postdoctoral project grant 206527–051.Pre-print (óritrýnt handrit

Integration of SAR Data Into Monitoring of the 2014-2015 Holuhraun Eruption, Iceland: Contribution of the Icelandic Volcanoes Supersite and the FutureVolc Projects

We report how data from satellite and aerial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations were integrated into monitoring of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, the largest effusive eruption in Iceland since the 1783–84 Laki eruption. A lava field formed in one of the most remote areas in Iceland, after the propagation of a ∼50 km-long dyke beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, where the Bárðarbunga caldera is located. Due to the 6 month duration of the eruption, mainly in wintertime, daily monitoring was particularly challenging. During the eruption, the European volcanological project FutureVolc was ongoing, allowing collaboration of many European experts on volcano monitoring activities. Icelandic volcanoes are also a permanent Supersite within the Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories (GSNL) initiative, with support from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) in the form of a large collection of SAR images. SAR data were acquired by Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK) and TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellites and complemented by aerial SAR images. The large set of SAR satellite data significantly contributed to the daily monitoring during the unrest at Bárðarbunga caldera, the Holuhraun eruption and the year following the eruption. Detection of surface changes using both SAR amplitude and phase information was conducted throughout the whole duration of the volcano-tectonic event, and in the following months, to quantify and track the evolution of volcanic processes at Holuhraun and geothermal activity at Bárðarbunga volcano. Combination of SAR data with other data sets, e.g., satellite optical images and geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, was essential for the evaluation of the volcanic hazard in the whole area. International collaboration within the FutureVolc project formed the basis for successful analyses and interpretation of the large SAR data set. Information was provided at Scientific Advisory Board meetings of the Icelandic Civil Protection and used in decision-making, as well as for supporting field-deployment and air-based surveys

SUSTAIN drilling at Surtsey volcano, Iceland, tracks hydrothermal and microbiological interactions in basalt 50 years after eruption

The 2017 Surtsey Underwater volcanic System for Thermophiles, Alteration processes and INnovative concretes (SUSTAIN) drilling project at Surtsey volcano, sponsored in part by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP), provides precise observations of the hydrothermal, geochemical, geomagnetic, and microbiological changes that have occurred in basaltic tephra and minor intrusions since explosive and effusive eruptions produced the oceanic island in 1963–1967. Two vertically cored boreholes, to 152 and 192 m below the surface, were drilled using filtered, UV-sterilized seawater circulating fluid to minimize microbial contamination. These cores parallel a 181 m core drilled in 1979. Introductory investigations indicate changes in material properties and whole-rock compositions over the past 38 years. A Surtsey subsurface observatory installed to 181 m in one vertical borehole holds incubation experiments that monitor in situ mineralogical and microbial alteration processes at 25–124 ∘C. A third cored borehole, inclined 55∘ in a 264∘ azimuthal direction to 354 m measured depth, provides further insights into eruption processes, including the presence of a diatreme that extends at least 100 m into the seafloor beneath the Surtur crater. The SUSTAIN project provides the first time-lapse drilling record into a very young oceanic basaltic volcano over a range of temperatures, 25–141 ∘C from 1979 to 2017, and subaerial and submarine hydrothermal fluid compositions. Rigorous procedures undertaken during the drilling operation protected the sensitive environment of the Surtsey Natural Preserve

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.</p

The explosive, basaltic Katla eruption in 1918, south Iceland II. Isopach map, ice cap deposition of tephra and layer volume

Due to poor preservation and lack of proximal tephra thickness data, no comprehensive isopach map has existed for the tephra layer from the major eruption of the Katla volcano in 1918. We present such a map obtained by combining existing data on the thickness of the 1918 tephra in soil profiles with newly acquired data from the 590 km2 Mýrdalsjökull ice cap which covers the Katla caldera and its outer slopes. A tephra thickness of 20–30 m on the ice surface proximal to the vents is inferred from photos taken in 1919. The greatest thicknesses presently observed, 30–35 cm, occur where the layer outcrops in the lowermost parts of the ablation areas of the Kötlujökull and Sólheimajökull outlet glaciers. A fallout location within the Katla caldera is inferred for the presently exposed tephra in both outlet glaciers, as estimates of balance velocities imply lateral transport since 1918 of ∼15 km for Kötlujökull, ∼11 km for Sólheimajökull and about 2 km for the broad northern lobe of Sléttjökull. Calculations of thinning of the tephra layer during this lateral transport indicate that the presently exposed tephra layers in Kötlujökull and Sólheimajökull were respectively over 2 m and about 1.2 m thick where they fell while insignificant thinning is inferred for the broad northern lobe of Sléttjökull. The K1918 layer has an estimated volume of 0.95±0.25 km3 (corresponding to 1.15±0.30×1012 kg) whereof about 50% fell on Mýrdalsjökull. About 90% of the tephra fell on land and 10% in the sea to the south and southeast of the volcano. The volume estimate obtained contains only a part of the total volume erupted as it excludes water-transported pyroclasts and any material that may have been left on the glacier bed at the vents. While three main dispersal axes can be defined (N, NE and SE), the distribution map is complex in shape reflecting tephra dispersal over a period of variable wind directions and eruption intensity. In terms of airborne tephra, Katla 1918 is the largest explosive eruption in Iceland since the silicic eruption of Askja in 1875.MTG, ÞH: University of Iceland Research Fund, Chief of Police in South Iceland, The Icelandic Road Authority. MHJ: EU Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellowship JG: Landsvirkjun, Fræðslusjóður Suðurlands TJ: GOSVÁ program on volcanic hazard assessment in IcelandPeer Reviewe

Response of Eyjafjallajökull, Torfajökull and Tindfjallajökull ice caps in Iceland to regional warming, deduced by remote sensing

We assess the volume change and mass balance of three ice caps in southern Iceland for two periods, 1979/1984 to 1998 and 1998 to 2004, by comparing digital elevation models (DEMs). The ice caps are Eyjafjallajökull (ca. 81 km²), Tindfjallajökull (ca. 15 km²) and Torfajökull (ca. 14 km²). The DEMs were compiled using aerial photographs from 1979 to 1984, airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images obtained in 1998 and two image pairs from the SPOT 5 satellite’s high-resolution stereoscopic (HRS) instrument acquired in 2004. The ice-free part of the accurate DEM from 1998 was used as a reference map for co-registration and correction of the vertical offset of the other DEMs. The average specific mass balance was estimated from the mean elevation difference between glaciated areas of the DEMs. The glacier mass balance declined significantly between the two periods: from -0.2 to 0.2 m yr-1 w. eq. during the earlier period (1980s through 1998) to -1.8 to -1.5 m yr-1 w. eq. for the more recent period (1998-2004). The declining mass balance is consistent with increased temperature over the two periods. The low mass balance and the small accumulation area ratio of Tindfjallajökull and Torfajökull indicate that they will disappear if the present-day climate continues. The future lowering rate of Eyjafjallajökull will, however, be influenced by the 2010 subglacial eruption in the Eyjafjallajökull volcano.Keywords: Remote sensing, glacier mass balance, regional warming, Eyjafjallajökull, Torfajökull, Tindfjallajökull(Published: 20 July 2011)Citation: Polar Research 2011, 30, 7282, DOI: 10.3402/polar.v30i0.728

Volume, effusion rate, and lava transport during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption: Results from near real‐time photogrammetric monitoring

International audienc

Segmented lateral dyke growth in a rifting event at Bárðarbunga volcanic system, Iceland

Crust at many divergent plate boundaries forms primarily by the injection of vertical sheet-like dykes, some tens of kilometres long1. Previous models of rifting events indicate either lateral dyke growth away from a feeding source, with propagation rates decreasing as the dyke lengthens2, 3, 4, or magma flowing vertically into dykes from an underlying source5, 6, with the role of topography on the evolution of lateral dykes not clear. Here we show how a recent segmented dyke intrusion in the Bárðarbunga volcanic system grew laterally for more than 45 kilometres at a variable rate, with topography influencing the direction of propagation. Barriers at the ends of each segment were overcome by the build-up of pressure in the dyke end; then a new segment formed and dyke lengthening temporarily peaked. The dyke evolution, which occurred primarily over 14 days, was revealed by propagating seismicity, ground deformation mapped by Global Positioning System (GPS), interferometric analysis of satellite radar images (InSAR), and graben formation. The strike of the dyke segments varies from an initially radial direction away from the Bárðarbunga caldera, towards alignment with that expected from regional stress at the distal end. A model minimizing the combined strain and gravitational potential energy explains the propagation path. Dyke opening and seismicity focused at the most distal segment at any given time, and were simultaneous with magma source deflation and slow collapse at the Bárðarbunga caldera, accompanied by a series of magnitude M &gt; 5 earthquakes. Dyke growth was slowed down by an effusive fissure eruption near the end of the dyke. Lateral dyke growth with segment barrier breaking by pressure build-up in the dyke distal end explains how focused upwelling of magma under central volcanoes is effectively redistributed over long distances to create new upper crust at divergent plate boundaries