The effect of wind and plume height reconstruction methods on the accuracy of simple plume models — a second look at the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Real-time monitoring of volcanic ash plumes with the aim to estimate the mass eruption rate is crucial for predicting atmospheric ash concentration. Mass eruption rates are usually assessed by 0D and 1D plume models, which are fast and require only a few observational input parameters, often only the plume height. A model’s output, however, depends also on the plume height data handling strategy (sampling rate, gap reconstruction methods and statistical treatment), especially in long-term eruptions with incomplete plume height records. Representing such an eruption, we used Eyjafjallajökull 2010 to test the sensitivity of six simple and two explicitly wind-affected plume models against 22 data handling strategies. Based on photogrammetric measurements, the wind deflection of the plume was determined and used to re-calibrate radar height data. The resulting data was then subjected to different data handling strategies, before being used as input for the plume models. The model results were compared to the erupted mass measured on the ground, allowing us to assess the prediction accuracy of each combination of data handling strategy and model. Combinations that provide highest prediction accuracies vary, depending on data coverage, eruptive strength, and fragmentation style. However, for this type of moderate to weak eruption, the most important factor was found to be the prevailing windspeed. When windspeeds exceed 20 m/s, most combinations of strategies and models provide predictions that underestimate the erupted mass by more than 40%. Under such conditions, the optimal choice of data handling strategy and plume model is of particularly relevance.The geo-referencing and photo analysis was conducted under the EU Framework 7 FutureVolc project (2012–2016). This work contributes to project MAXI-Plume, supported by the Icelandic Research Fund (Rannís), grant Nr. 206527-051. TD was supported by the IRF (Rannís) Postdoctoral project grant 206527–051.Pre-print (óritrýnt handrit

Development of a subglacial lake monitored with radio-echo sounding: case study from the eastern Skaftá cauldron in the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland

We present repeated radio-echo sounding (RES, 5 MHz) on a profile grid over the eastern Skaftá cauldron (ESC) in Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. The ESC is a ∼ 3 km wide and 50–150 m deep ice cauldron created and maintained by subglacial geothermal activity of ∼ 1 GW. Beneath the cauldron and 200–400 m thick ice, water accumulates in a subglacial lake and is released semi-regularly in jökulhlaups. The RES record consists of annual surveys conducted at the beginning of every summer during the period 2014–2020. Comparison of the RES surveys reveals variable lake area (0.5–4.1 km2) and enables traced reflections from the lake roof to be distinguished from bedrock reflections. This allows construction of a digital elevation model (DEM) of the bedrock in the area, further constrained by two borehole measurements at the cauldron centre. It also allows creation of lake thickness maps and an estimate of lake volume at the time of each survey, which we compare with lowering patterns and released water volumes obtained from pre- and post-jökulhlaup surface DEMs. The estimated lake volume was 250 GL (gigalitres = 106 m3) in June 2015, but 320 ± 20 GL drained from the ESC in October 2015. In June 2018, RES profiles revealed a lake volume of 185 GL, while 220 ± 30 GL were released in a jökulhlaup in August 2018. Considering the water accumulation over the periods between RES surveys and jökulhlaups, this indicates 10 %–20 % uncertainty in the RES-derived volumes at times when significant jökulhlaups may be expected

Environmental pressure from the 2014–15 eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland

The effusive six months long 2014-2015 Bárðarbunga eruption (31 August-27 February) was the largest in Iceland for more than 200 years, producing 1.6 ± 0.3 km3 of lava. The total SO2 emission was 11 ± 5 Mt, more than the amount emitted from Europe in 2011. The ground level concentration of SO2 exceeded the 350 μg m−3 hourly average health limit over much of Iceland for days to weeks. Anomalously high SO2 concentrations were also measured at several locations in Europe in September. The lowest pH of fresh snowmelt at the eruption site was 3.3, and 3.2 in precipitation 105 km away from the source. Elevated dissolved H2SO4, HCl, HF, and metal concentrations were measured in snow and precipitation. Environmental pressures from the eruption and impacts on populated areas were reduced by its remoteness, timing, and the weather. The anticipated primary environmental pressure is on the surface waters, soils, and vegetation of Iceland

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption

SUSTAIN drilling at Surtsey volcano, Iceland, tracks hydrothermal and microbiological interactions in basalt 50 years after eruption

The 2017 Surtsey Underwater volcanic System for Thermophiles, Alteration processes and INnovative concretes (SUSTAIN) drilling project at Surtsey volcano, sponsored in part by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP), provides precise observations of the hydrothermal, geochemical, geomagnetic, and microbiological changes that have occurred in basaltic tephra and minor intrusions since explosive and effusive eruptions produced the oceanic island in 1963–1967. Two vertically cored boreholes, to 152 and 192 m below the surface, were drilled using filtered, UV-sterilized seawater circulating fluid to minimize microbial contamination. These cores parallel a 181 m core drilled in 1979. Introductory investigations indicate changes in material properties and whole-rock compositions over the past 38 years. A Surtsey subsurface observatory installed to 181 m in one vertical borehole holds incubation experiments that monitor in situ mineralogical and microbial alteration processes at 25–124 ∘C. A third cored borehole, inclined 55∘ in a 264∘ azimuthal direction to 354 m measured depth, provides further insights into eruption processes, including the presence of a diatreme that extends at least 100 m into the seafloor beneath the Surtur crater. The SUSTAIN project provides the first time-lapse drilling record into a very young oceanic basaltic volcano over a range of temperatures, 25–141 ∘C from 1979 to 2017, and subaerial and submarine hydrothermal fluid compositions. Rigorous procedures undertaken during the drilling operation protected the sensitive environment of the Surtsey Natural Preserve

Integration of SAR Data Into Monitoring of the 2014-2015 Holuhraun Eruption, Iceland: Contribution of the Icelandic Volcanoes Supersite and the FutureVolc Projects

We report how data from satellite and aerial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations were integrated into monitoring of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, the largest effusive eruption in Iceland since the 1783–84 Laki eruption. A lava field formed in one of the most remote areas in Iceland, after the propagation of a ∼50 km-long dyke beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, where the Bárðarbunga caldera is located. Due to the 6 month duration of the eruption, mainly in wintertime, daily monitoring was particularly challenging. During the eruption, the European volcanological project FutureVolc was ongoing, allowing collaboration of many European experts on volcano monitoring activities. Icelandic volcanoes are also a permanent Supersite within the Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories (GSNL) initiative, with support from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) in the form of a large collection of SAR images. SAR data were acquired by Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK) and TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellites and complemented by aerial SAR images. The large set of SAR satellite data significantly contributed to the daily monitoring during the unrest at Bárðarbunga caldera, the Holuhraun eruption and the year following the eruption. Detection of surface changes using both SAR amplitude and phase information was conducted throughout the whole duration of the volcano-tectonic event, and in the following months, to quantify and track the evolution of volcanic processes at Holuhraun and geothermal activity at Bárðarbunga volcano. Combination of SAR data with other data sets, e.g., satellite optical images and geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, was essential for the evaluation of the volcanic hazard in the whole area. International collaboration within the FutureVolc project formed the basis for successful analyses and interpretation of the large SAR data set. Information was provided at Scientific Advisory Board meetings of the Icelandic Civil Protection and used in decision-making, as well as for supporting field-deployment and air-based surveys

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.</p

Discriminating volcano deformation due to magma movements and variable surface loads: application to Katla subglacial volcano, Iceland

Surface displacements induced by ice load variation through time are calculated by spatial integration of Green's function for both end-members: an elastic half-space and a thick elastic plate lying over an inviscid mantle. The elastic half-space model allows the consideration of displacements caused by short-term (seasonal) variations. The thick plate model describes the final relaxed state. The transition between these two stages is dominated by an effective relaxation time which depends on mantle viscosity. This behaviour is considered to estimate displacements induced by long-term load changes (ice retreat over decades). We apply these methods to the Myrdalsjokull ice cap, Iceland, where an annual cycle in ice load occurs as well as a gradual ice retreat as a consequence of climate warming. Seasonal vertical displacements measured from 2000 to 2006 at two continuous GPS stations located near the edge of Myrdalsjokull ice cap fit well to a model of an elastic response to the annual variation in ice load. A comparison of model displacements and observations provides a minimum value of 29 +/- 5 GPa for the effective static local value of the Young's modulus. We infer long-term displacements induced by ice retreat over the last 115 yr using a combination of the instantaneous elastic response and the final relaxed state. Results are compared to GPS measurements used to monitor the Katla volcano lying beneath the Myrdalsjokull ice cap. A forward model considering an elastic thickness of 5 km can explain a fraction of the uplift recorded from 1999 to 2004, but it cannot account for the observed horizontal velocities. The study confirms that magma inflow is required to explain observed inflation of the Katla volcano 1999-2004