Time-varying effects when analysing customer lifetime duration, application to the insurance market

The Cox model (Cox, 1972) is widely used in customer lifetime duration research, but it assumes that the regression coefficients are time invariant. In order to analyse the temporal covariate effects on the duration times, we propose to use an extended version of the Cox model where the parameters are allowed to vary over time. We apply this methodology to real insurance policy cancellation data and we conclude that the kind of contracts held by the customer and the concurrence of an external insurer in the cancellation influence the risk of the customer leaving the company, but the effect differs as time goes by.Cox model, customer lifetime.

Percepción del usuario externo sobre el cuidado humanizado de enfermería en los servicios críticos del Hospital Ramiro Priale Priale EsSalud Huancayo - 2017

El objetivo del estudio fue: Determinar las percepciones de los usuarios externos sobre el cuidado de enfermería humanizado en los servicios críticos del Hospital Ramiro Prialé Prialé EsSalud Huancayo 2017. Materiales y métodos: Abordaje cualitativo Se utilizaron descripciones de nivel cuantitativo, teórico y exploratorio Comparativo, muestra conformada de 49 usuarios de cuidados intermedios y 232 usuarios de urgencias, para seleccionar unidades de análisis, tipo de muestreo probabilístico utilizado y técnicas de muestreo dirigidas según se requiera. Como herramienta, se aplicó directamente la 3ª edición de la Escala Clínica Nacional PCHE a pacientes sobrios que dieron sus respuestas dentro de los intervalos correspondientes. Resultados: el 63,8 % de los pacientes atendidos en urgencias presentaba una conciencia inadecuada frente al 36,7 % de los pacientes ambulatorios atendidos en la unidad de cuidados intermedios. El 60,8% de los pacientes atendidos en urgencias tienen percepciones aceptables frente al 46,9% de los ambulatorios atendidos en unidades de cuidados intermedios. Conclusiones: el 81,5% de los pacientes atendidos en urgencias tuvieron una percepción aceptable frente al 63,3% de los ambulatorios atendidos en la unidad de cuidados intermedios

Agreement between the SCORE and D’Agostino Scales for the Classification of High Cardiovascular Risk in Sedentary Spanish Patients

Background: To evaluate agreement between cardiovascular risk in sedentary patients as estimated by the new Framingham-D’Agostino scale and by the SCORE chart, and to describe the patient characteristics associated with the observed disagreement between the scales. Design: A cross-sectional study was undertaken involving a systematic sample of 2,295 sedentary individuals between 40–65 years of age seen for any reason in 56 primary care offices. An estimation was made of the Pearson correlation coefficient and kappa statistic for the classification of high risk subjects (≥20% according to the Framingham-D’Agostino scale, and ≥5% according to SCORE). Polytomous logistic regression models were fitted to identify the variables associated with the discordance between the two scales. Results: The mean risk in males (35%) was 19.5% ± 13% with D’Agostino scale, and 3.2% ± 3.3% with SCORE. Among females, they were 8.1% ± 6.8% and 1.2% ± 2.2%, respectively. The correlation between the two scales was 0.874 in males (95% CI: 0.857–0.889) and 0.818 in females (95% CI: 0.800–0.834), while the kappa index was 0.50 in males (95% CI: 0.44%–0.56%) and 0.61 in females (95% CI: 0.52%–0.71%). The most frequent disagreement, characterized by high risk according to D’Agostino scale but not according to SCORE, was much more prevalent among males and proved more probable with increasing age and increased LDL-cholesterol, triglyceride and systolic blood pressure values, as well as among those who used antihypertensive drugs and smokers. Conclusions: The quantitative correlation between the two scales is very high. Patient categorization as corresponding to high risk generates disagreements, mainly among males, where agreement between the two classifications is only moderate

Plasma levels of alpha1-antichymotrypsin and secretory leukocyte proteinase inhibitor in healthy and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) subjects with and without severe α1-antitrypsin deficiency

BACKGROUND: Individuals with severe Z α1-antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency have a considerably increased risk of developing chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD). It has been hypothesized that compensatory increases in levels of other protease inhibitors mitigate the effects of this AAT deficiency. We analysed plasma levels of AAT, α1-antichymotrypsin (ACT) and secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor (SLPI) in healthy (asymptomatic) and COPD subjects with and without AAT deficiency. METHODS: Studied groups included: 71 asymptomatic AAT-deficient subjects (ZZ, n = 48 and SZ, n = 23, age 31 ± 0.5) identified during Swedish neonatal screening for AAT deficiency between 1972 and 1974; age-matched controls (MM, n = 57, age 30.7 ± 0.6); older asymptomatic ZZ (n = 10); healthy MM (n = 20, age 53 ± 9.6); and COPD patients (ZZ, n = 10, age 47.4 ± 11 and MM, n = 10, age 59.4 ± 6.7). Plasma levels of SLPI, AAT and ACT were analysed using ELISA and immunoelectrophoresis. RESULTS: No significant difference was found in plasma ACT and SLPI levels between the healthy MM and the ZZ or SZ subjects in the studied groups. Independent of the genetic variant, subjects with COPD (n = 19) had elevated plasma levels of SLPI and ACT relative to controls (n = 153) (49.5 ± 7.2 vs 40.7 ± 9.1 ng/ml, p < 0.001 and 0.52 ± 0.19 vs 0.40 ± 0.1 mg/ml, p < 0.05, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our findings show that plasma levels of ACT and SLPI are not elevated in subjects with genetic AAT deficiency compared MM controls and do not appear to compensate for the deficiency of plasma AAT

Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European) versus the D'AGOSTINO (American) risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

Background: No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR) scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE) with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods: A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40-65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results

Prioritising pathogens for the management of severe febrile patients to improve clinical care in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Severe febrile illness without a known source (SFWS) is a challenge for clinicians when deciding how to manage a patient, particularly given the wide spectrum of potential aetiologies that contribute to fever. These infections are difficult to distinguish clinically, and accurate diagnosis requires a plethora of diagnostics including blood cultures, imaging techniques, molecular or serological tests, and more. When laboratory services are available, a limited test menu hinders clinical decision-making and antimicrobial stewardship, leading to empiric treatment and suboptimal patient outcomes. To specifically address SFWS, this work aimed to identify priority pathogens for a globally applicable panel for fever causing pathogens. METHOD: A pragmatic two-pronged approach combining currently available scientific data in an analytical hierarchy process and systematically gathered expert input, was designed to address the lack of comprehensive global aetiology data. The expert re-ranked list was then further adapted for a specific use case to focus on community acquired infections in whole blood specimens. The resulting list was further analysed to address different geographical regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America), and Cohen kappa scores of agreement were calculated. RESULTS: The expert ranked prioritized pathogen list generated as part of this two-pronged approach included typhoidal Salmonella, Plasmodium species and Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the top 3 pathogens. This pathogen list was then further adapted for the SFWS use case to develop a final pathogen list to inform product development. Subsequent analysis comparing the relevance of the SFWS pathogen list to multiple populations and geographical regions showed that the SFWS prioritized list had considerable utility across Africa and Asia, but less so for Latin America. In addition, the list showed high levels of agreement across different patient sub-populations, but lower relevance for neonates and symptomatic HIV patients. CONCLUSION: This work highlighted once again the challenges of prioritising in global health, but it also shows that taking a two-pronged approach, combining available prevalence data with expert input, can result in a broadly applicable priority list. This comprehensive utility is particularly important in the context of product development, where a sufficient market size is essential to achieve a sustainable commercialized diagnostic product to address SFWS

Height and timing of growth spurt during puberty in young people living with vertically acquired HIV in Europe and Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe growth during puberty in young people with vertically acquired HIV. DESIGN: Pooled data from 12 paediatric HIV cohorts in Europe and Thailand. METHODS: One thousand and ninety-four children initiating a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or boosted protease inhibitor based regimen aged 1-10 years were included. Super Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) models described growth from age 8 years using three parameters (average height, timing and shape of the growth spurt), dependent on age and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) (WHO references) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Multivariate regression explored characteristics associated with these three parameters. RESULTS: At ART initiation, median age and HAZ was 6.4 [interquartile range (IQR): 2.8, 9.0] years and -1.2 (IQR: -2.3 to -0.2), respectively. Median follow-up was 9.1 (IQR: 6.9, 11.4) years. In girls, older age and lower HAZ at ART initiation were independently associated with a growth spurt which occurred 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.20-0.62) years later in children starting ART age 6 to 10 years compared with 1 to 2 years and 1.50 (1.21-1.78) years later in those starting with HAZ less than -3 compared with HAZ at least -1. Later growth spurts in girls resulted in continued height growth into later adolescence. In boys starting ART with HAZ less than -1, growth spurts were later in children starting ART in the oldest age group, but for HAZ at least -1, there was no association with age. Girls and boys who initiated ART with HAZ at least -1 maintained a similar height to the WHO reference mean. CONCLUSION: Stunting at ART initiation was associated with later growth spurts in girls. Children with HAZ at least -1 at ART initiation grew in height at the level expected in HIV negative children of a comparable age

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder