Improving the applicability of radar rainfall estimates for urban pluvial flood modelling and forecasting

This work explores the possibility of improving the applicability of radar rainfall estimates (whose accuracy is generally insufficient) to the verification and operation of urban storm-water drainage models by employing a number of local gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment techniques. The adjustment techniques tested in this work include a simple mean-field bias (MFB) adjustment, as well as a more complex Bayesian radar-raingauge data merging method which aims at better preserving the spatial structure of rainfall fields. In addition, a novel technique (namely, local singularity analysis) is introduced and shown to improve the Bayesian method by better capturing and reproducing storm patterns and peaks. Two urban catchments were used as case studies in this work: the Cranbrook catchment (9 km2) in North-East London, and the Portobello catchment (53 km2) in the East of Edinburgh. In the former, the potential benefits of gauge-based adjusted radar rainfall estimates in an operational context were analysed, whereas in the latter the potential benefits of adjusted estimates for model verification purposes were explored. Different rainfall inputs, including raingauge, original radar and the aforementioned merged estimates were fed into the urban drainage models of the two catchments. The hydraulic outputs were compared against available flow and depth records. On the whole, the tested adjustment techniques proved to improve the applicability of radar rainfall estimates to urban hydrological applications, with the Bayesian-based methods, in particular the singularity sensitive one, providing more realistic and accurate rainfall fields which result in better reproduction of the urban drainage system’s dynamics. Further testing is still necessary in order to better assess the benefits of these adjustment methods, identify their shortcomings and improve them accordingly

Superconductivity in NdFe1-xCoxAsO (0.05 < x < 0.20) and rare-earth magnetic ordering in NdCoAsO

The phase diagram of NdFe1-xCoxAsO for low cobalt substitution consists of a superconducting dome (0.05 < x < 0.20) with a maximum critical temperature of 16.5(2) K for x = 0.12. The x = 1 end member, NdCoAsO, is an itinerant ferromagnet (TC = 85 K) with an ordered moment of 0.30(1) BM at 15 K. Below TN = 9 K, Nd spin-ordering results in the antiferromagnetic coupling of the existing ferromagnetic planes. Rietveld analysis reveals that the electronically important two-fold tetrahedral angle increases from 111.4 to 115.9 deg. in this series. Underdoped samples with x = 0.046(2) and x = 0.065(2) show distortions to the orthorhombic Cmma structure at 72(2) and 64(2) K, respectively. The temperature dependences of the critical fields Hc2(T) near Tc are linear with almost identical slopes of 2.3(1) T K-1 for x = 0.065(2), x = 0.118(2) and x = 0.172(2). The estimated critical field Hc2(0) and correlation length for optimally doped samples are 26(1) T and 36(1) Angstrom. A comparison of the maximum reported critical temperatures of well-characterized cobalt doped 122- and 1111-type superconductors is presented.Comment: accepted to PR

Reproductive performance of resident and migrant males, females and pairs in a partially migratory bird

We thank everyone from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) who contributed to data collection, and Scottish Natural Heritage for access to the Isle of May National Nature Reserve. We thank the Scottish Ornithologists’ Club (SOC) for their support, and all volunteer observers, particularly Raymond Duncan, Moray Souter and Bob Swann. HG was funded by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) CASE studentship supported by CEH and SOC, FD, SW, MPH, MN and SB were funded by NERC and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, and JMR was part-funded by the Royal Society. Finally, we thank the Associate Editor and two reviewers for constructive comments on the manuscript. The data are available from the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.532j0 (Grist et al., 2017)Peer reviewedPublisher PD

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Complex Physical Activities, Outdoor Play, and School Readiness among Preschoolers

High quality educational settings play a crucial role in preparing a child to enter kindergarten, but little work has explored how outdoor play and complex physical activity outside school and childcare settings promote school readiness among preschoolers. To address this gap, the present study explored connections among school readiness with outdoor play and participation in complex physical activity. Parents (N = 107) reported the extent and frequency of time their child spent in outdoor play during a typical week, and what complex activities (e.g., soccer, biking, basketball) the child played over the last year. School readiness was assessed with parent reports on the Preschool Behavior and Emotional Rating Scale. Results showed participating in complex activities significantly moderated the relationship between time in outdoor play with school readiness, with time in outdoor play positively related to school readiness for children who participated in two or less complex activities. For children who participated in three complex activities, time in outdoor play was not related to school readiness. Findings offer support that encouraging both outdoor play and participation in complex physical activities could promote school readiness, particularly when opportunities for outdoor playtime are limited

Tracing oceanic sources of heat content available for Atlantic hurricanes

In the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes, the volume of water warmer than 26.5°C quantifies the potential source of energy for major storms. Taking a Lagrangian perspective, this warm water is backtracked on seasonal timescales in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast spanning 1988–2010. Being confined near the surface and assuming a mixed layer depth of 50 m, net heat fluxes into or out of water parcels advected toward the MDR are inferred from along-trajectory temperature tendencies. To first order, these heat fluxes match surface net heat fluxes during the months over which water advects into the region. Contributions to this warm water in the preceding 6 months include water resident in the MDR (20%–40%), arriving via the North Brazil Current (NBC, 5%–15%), or via Ekman drift across 10°S. In relative terms, decreased contributions from the NBC and Ekman drift and more in situ warming within the MDR lead to warmer, more active hurricane seasons

Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers

The autumn-winter seasonal temperature reduction (STR) of the surface North Atlantic Ocean is investigated with control and climate change simulations of a coupled model and an observation-based sea surface temperature (SST) data set. In the climate change simulation, an increase in the magnitude of the STR is found over much of the North Atlantic, and this change is particularly marked in sea-ice affected regions and the subpolar gyre. Similar results for the mid-high latitude North Atlantic are obtained in the observational analysis. In particular, both the observation and climate model based results show that the STR has increased in magnitude by up to 0.3°C per decade in the subpolar gyre over the period 1951–2020. Drivers for the stronger STR are explored with a focus on potential contributions from increases in either ocean heat loss or the sensitivity of SST to heat loss. Over a large part of the mid-high latitude North Atlantic surface heat loss is found to have weakened in recent decades and is therefore not responsible for the stronger STR (exceptions to this are the near-coastal areas where sea-ice loss is important). In contrast, analysis of daily sensible and latent heat flux data reveals that the sensitivity of SST to heat loss has increased indicating that this term has played a major role in the stronger STR. Areas of greater SST sensitivity (and greater STR) are associated with increased surface stratification brought about predominantly by warming of the northern ocean regions

Seasonal variability of the warm Atlantic Water layer in the vicinity of the Greenland shelf break

The warmest water reaching the east and west coast of Greenland is found between 200?m and 600?m. Whilst important for melting Greenland's outlet glaciers, limited winter observations of this layer prohibit determination of its seasonality. To address this, temperature data from Argo profiling floats, a range of sources within the World Ocean Database and unprecedented coverage from marine-mammal borne sensors have been analysed for the period 2002-2011. A significant seasonal range in temperature (~1-2?°C) is found in the warm layer, in contrast to most of the surrounding ocean. The phase of the seasonal cycle exhibits considerable spatial variability, with the warmest water found near the eastern and southwestern shelf-break towards the end of the calendar year. High-resolution ocean model trajectory analysis suggest the timing of the arrival of the year's warmest water is a function of advection time from the subduction site in the Irminger Basin

Innovative solutions please, as long as they have been proved elsewhere:The case of a polished lime-pozzolan concrete floor

AbstractThis case-study paper tells the story of the development of a bespoke lime-pozzolan concrete for an innovative project application. In this paper, the results of laboratory testing are contextualised by the project-story that steered the research programme. This is an example of a collaborative endeavour to implement a novel low-carbon construction technology in the field.Evolution of the design in parallel with laboratory testing resulted in the development and specification of a polished lime-pozzolan concrete floor incorporating site-won oolitic limestone aggregate. To the disappointment of the client and the design team, this innovative solution was abandoned at the point the contractor was appointed and changed to a proprietary polished metallic dry shake floor system. The project, a new build extension to a local authority secondary school, was completed in September 2013