Conditions associated with the initiation of domiciliary care following a hospital admission: a cohort study in East London, England

OBJECTIVE: Older people and people with complex needs often require both health and social care services, but there is limited insight into individual journeys across these services. To help inform joint health and social care planning, we aimed to assess the relationship between hospital admissions and domiciliary care receipt. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, using linked data on primary care activity, hospital admissions and social care records. SETTING: London Borough of Barking and Dagenham, England. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 19 and over who lived in the area on 1 April 2018 and who were registered at a general practice in East London between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2020 (n=140 987). OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome was initiation of domiciliary care. We estimated the rate of hospital-associated care package initiation, and of care packages unrelated to hospital admission. We also described the characteristics of hospital admissions that preceded domiciliary care, including primary diagnosis codes. RESULTS: 2041/140 987 (1.4%) participants had a domiciliary care package during a median follow-up of 1.87 years. 32.6% of packages were initiated during a hospital stay or within 7 days of discharge. The rate of new domiciliary care packages was 120 times greater (95% CI 110 to 130) during or after a hospital stay than at other times, and this association was present for all age groups. Primary admission reasons accounting for the largest number of domiciliary care packages were hip fracture, pneumonia, stroke, urinary tract infection, septicaemia and exacerbations of long-term conditions (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure). Admission reasons with the greatest likelihood of a subsequent domiciliary care package were fractures and strokes. CONCLUSION: Hospitals are a major referral route into domiciliary care. While patients admitted due to new and acute illnesses account for many domiciliary care packages, exacerbations of long-term conditions and age-related and frailty-related conditions are also important drivers

Briefing: improving children and young people's mental health services: local data insights from England, Scotland and Wales.

In this briefing, we present analysis from the Networked Data Lab (NDL). Led by the Health Foundation, the NDL is a collaborative network of local analytical teams across England, Scotland and Wales. These teams analysed local, linked data sources to explore trends in mental health presentations across primary, specialist and acute services. This briefing includes: a) background on the trends in mental health disorders among children and young people and existing pressures on services, as well as an overview of the main policies in place in England, Scotland, and Wales to improve children and young people's mental health b) findings from NDL partners: we examine trends and patterns of service use, including the use of primary care, specialist mental health care and acute services, along with differences by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics c) examples of how local NDL teams used linked data to improve services in their area d) insights for national and local policymakers

Using cross-sector data linkage to track patient journeys across health and social care.

Objectives Older people and people with complex needs often require both health and social care services, but there is limited insight into individual journeys across these services. To help inform joint health and social care planning, we aimed to assess the relationship between hospital admissions and domiciliary care receipt. Approach We used an individually linked dataset of primary care activity, hospital admissions and local authority-held social care records for adults living in Barking and Dagenham, a borough in London, England, on 1 April 2018, and followed them up until 31 March 2020. The outcome was initiation of a new domiciliary care package. We estimated the rate of hospital-associated care package initiation, and of care packages unrelated to hospital admissions. We also described the characteristics of hospital admissions that preceded domiciliary care and examined which primary diagnoses codes were associated with receiving domiciliary care after discharge. Results In our cohort, 1.4 of participants had a domiciliary care package during a median follow-up of 1.87 years. One in three domiciliary care packages were initiated during a hospital stay or within 7 days of discharge. The rate of new domiciliary care packages was 120 times greater (95% CI 110-130) during or after a hospital stay than at other times, and this association was present for all age groups. Primary admission reasons accounting for the largest number of domiciliary care packages were hip fracture, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, septicaemia, and exacerbations of long-term conditions (COPD and heart failure). Admission reasons with the greatest likelihood of a subsequent domiciliary care package were fractures and strokes. Conclusion Hospitals are a major referral route into domiciliary care. While new and acute illnesses account for many domiciliary care packages, exacerbations of long-term conditions and age- and frailty-related conditions are also an important driver. National-level linked datasets are needed for a better understanding of the relationship between health and social care receipt

Indirect effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital mortality in patients with hip fracture: a competing risk survival analysis using linked administrative data

Background: Hip fracture is a leading cause of disability and mortality among older people. During the COVID-19 pandemic, orthopaedic care pathways in the National Health Service in England were restructured to manage pressures on hospital capacity. We examined the indirect consequences of the pandemic for hospital mortality among older patients with hip fracture, admitted from care homes or the community. Methods: Retrospective analysis of linked care home and hospital inpatient data for patients with hip fracture aged 65 years and over admitted to hospitals in England during the first year of the pandemic (1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021) or during the previous year. We performed survival analysis, adjusting for case mix and COVID-19 infection, and considered live discharge as a competing risk. We present cause-specific hazard ratios (HRCS) for the effect of admission year on hospital mortality risk. Results: During the first year of the pandemic, there were 55 648 hip fracture admissions: a 5.2% decrease on the previous year. 9.5% of patients had confirmed or suspected COVID-19. Hospital stays were substantially shorter (p<0.05), and there was a higher daily chance of discharge (HRCS 1.40, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.41). Overall hip fracture inpatient mortality increased (7.2% in 2020/2021 vs 6.4% in 2019/2020), but patients without concomitant COVID-19 infection had lower mortality rates compared with the year before (5.3%). Admission during the pandemic was associated with a 11% increase in the daily risk of hospital death for patients with hip fracture (HRCS 1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.16). Conclusions: Although COVID-19 infections led to increases in hospital mortality, overall hospital mortality risk for older patients with hip fracture remained largely stable during the first year of the pandemic

Data Study Group Final Report: Roche

Data Study Groups are week-long events at The Alan Turing Institute bringing together some of the country’s top talent from data science, artificial intelligence, and wider fields, to analyse real-world data science challenges. Roche: Personalised lung cancer treatment modelling using electronic health records and genomics Cancer immunotherapy (CIT) is a promising new type of cancer treatment that uses the patient’s own immune system to fight cancer cells. CIT drugs work to stop the cancer cells from turning off the immune system’s T-cells by inhibiting the PD-L1 produced by the tumour cells (PD-L1 is a protein that binds to PD-1 receptors on T-cells and prevents the immune system from attacking the cancer cells). CIT is currently being used to treat patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for whom chemotherapy or other drugs have failed. CIT is also be-ing used as part of the first-line treatment in patients with advanced NSCLC (aNSCLC - stage III and higher). Theoretically, patients with high PD-L1 ex-pression levels are more likely to respond well to CIT; however, in practice, patient outcomes vary considerably. In this data study group, we investigated different approaches for predicting survival time for patients treated with CIT as first line of treatment, using both electronic health records and tumour genomic data. We also investigated the causal effects of CIT vs other oncology treatments, and studied treatment heterogeneity. The results contribute to identifying patients who are most likely to benefit from CIT

Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions

Improving children and young people’s mental health services

Across the UK, the number of children and young people experiencing mental health problems is growing. Mental health services are expanding, but not fast enough to meet rising needs, leaving many children and young people with limited or no support. Too little is known about who receives care and crucially, who doesn’t. This briefing presents analysis from the Health Foundation’s Networked Data Lab (NDL) about children and young people’s mental health. The analysis from local teams across England, Scotland and Wales has highlighted three key areas for urgent investigation, to help ensure children and young people get the care they need. These are: rapid increases in mental health prescribing and support provided by GPs the prevalence of mental health problems among adolescent girls and young women stark socioeconomic inequalities across the UK. To inform national policy decisions and local service planning and delivery, the quality of data collection, analysis and the linkage of datasets across services and sectors need to be improved and used more effectively

Adalimumab for Treating Moderate-to-Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

As part of its single technology appraisal (STA) process, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of adalimumab (AbbVie) to submit evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of adalimumab for the treatment of moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). The appraisal assessed adalimumab as monotherapy in adult patients with an inadequate response to conventional systemic HS therapy. The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the technology based on the company’s submission to NICE. The evidence was mainly derived from three randomised controlled trials comparing adalimumab with placebo in adults with moderate-to-severe HS. The clinical-effectiveness review found that significantly more patients achieved a clinical response in the adalimumab groups than in the control groups but that the treatment effect varied between trials and there was uncertainty regarding its impact on a range of other relevant outcomes as well as long-term efficacy. The company’s submitted Markov model assessed the incremental cost effectiveness of adalimumab versus standard care for the treatment of HS from the perspective of the UK NHS and Personal Social Services (PSS) over a lifetime horizon. The original submitted model, including a patient access scheme (PAS), suggested that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for adalimumab versus standard care was expected to be £16,162 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Following a critique of the model, the ERG’s preferred base case, which corrected programming errors and structural problems surrounding discontinuation rules and incorporated a lower unit cost for HS surgery, resulted in a probabilistic ICER of £29,725 per QALY gained. Based on additional analyses undertaken by the company and the ERG following the publication of the appraisal consultation document (ACD), the Appraisal Committee concluded that the maximum possible ICER for adalimumab compared with supportive care was between £28,500 and £33,200 per QALY gained but was likely to be lower. The Appraisal Committee recommended adalimumab (with the PAS) for the treatment of active moderate-to-severe HS in adults whose disease has not responded to conventional systemic therapy

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 outbreaks still occur in English care homes despite the interventions in place. METHODS: We developed a stochastic compartmental model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an English care home. We quantified the outbreak risk with baseline non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) already in place, the role of community prevalence in driving outbreaks, and the relative contribution of all importation routes into a fully susceptible care home. We also considered the potential impact of additional control measures in care homes with and without immunity, namely: increasing staff and resident testing frequency, using lateral flow antigen testing (LFD) tests instead of polymerase chain reaction (PCR), enhancing infection prevention and control (IPC), increasing the proportion of residents isolated, shortening the delay to isolation, improving the effectiveness of isolation, restricting visitors and limiting staff to working in one care home. We additionally present a Shiny application for users to apply this model to their facility of interest, specifying care home, outbreak and intervention characteristics. RESULTS: The model suggests that importation of SARS-CoV-2 by staff, from the community, is the main driver of outbreaks, that importation by visitors or from hospitals is rare, and that the past testing strategy (monthly testing of residents and daily testing of staff by PCR) likely provides negligible benefit in preventing outbreaks. Daily staff testing by LFD was 39% (95% 18-55%) effective in preventing outbreaks at 30 days compared to no testing. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the frequency of testing in staff and enhancing IPC are important to preventing importations to the care home. Further work is needed to understand the impact of vaccination in this population, which is likely to be very effective in preventing outbreaks

Converging and Differential Brain Phospholipid Dysregulation in the Pathogenesis of Repetitive Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and Alzheimer’s Disease

Repetitive mild traumatic brain injury (rmTBI) is a major epigenetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The precise nature of how rmTBI leads to or precipitates AD pathology is currently unknown. Numerous neurological conditions have shown an important role for dysfunctional phospholipid metabolism as a driving factor for the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases. However, the precise role in rmTBI and AD remains elusive. We hypothesized that a detailed phospholipid characterization would reveal profiles of response to injury in TBI that overlap with age-dependent changes in AD and thus provide insights into the TBI-AD relationship. We employed a lipidomic approach examining brain phospholipid profiles from mouse models of rmTBI and AD. Cortex and hippocampal tissue were collected at 24 h, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-rmTBI, and at ages representing ‘pre’, ‘peri’ and ‘post’ onset of amyloid pathology (i.e., 3, 9, 15 months-old). Total levels of phosphatidylcholine (PC), phosphatidylethanolamine (PE), LysoPE, and phosphatidylinositol (PI), including their monounsaturated, polyunsaturated and saturated fatty acid (FA) containing species were significantly increased at acute and/or chronic time points post-injury in both brain regions. However, levels of most phospholipid species in PS1/APP mice were nominal in the hippocampus, while in the cortex, levels were significantly decreased at ages post-onset of amyloid pathology. Sphingomyelin and LysoPC levels showed coincidental trends in our rmTBI and AD models within the hippocampus, an increase at acute and/or chronic time points examined. The ratio of arachidonic acid (omega-6 FA) to docosahexaenoic acid (omega-3 FA)-containing PE species was increased at early time points in the hippocampus of injured versus sham mice, and in PS1/APP mice there was a coincidental increase compared to wild type littermates at all time points. This study demonstrates some overlapping and diverse phospholipid profiles in rmTBI and AD models. Future studies are required to corroborate our findings in human post-mortem tissue. Investigation of secondary mechanisms triggered by aberrant downstream alterations in bioactive metabolites of these phospholipids, and their modulation at the appropriate time-windows of opportunity could help facilitate development of novel therapeutic strategies to ameliorate the neurodegenerative consequences of rmTBI or the potential triggering of AD pathogenesis by rmTBI