Development of a polygenic risk score to improve screening for fracture risk: A genetic risk prediction study

Background Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)—a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture—can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program. Methods and findings A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed “gSOS”, and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N = 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)–based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r2 = 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk. Conclusions Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention

Improved prediction of fracture risk leveraging a genome-wide polygenic risk score

Background Accurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction. Methods We examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors. Results A standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727–0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791–0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072. Conclusions We generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture

Novel Loci for Adiponectin Levels and Their Influence on Type 2 Diabetes and Metabolic Traits : A Multi-Ethnic Meta-Analysis of 45,891 Individuals

J. Kaprio, S. Ripatti ja M.-L. Lokki työryhmien jäseniä.Peer reviewe

Supplementary Material for: Using Gene Genealogies to Detect Rare Variants Associated with Complex Traits

<b><i>Background and Objective:</i></b> Standard population genetic theory says that deleterious genetic variants are likely rare and fairly recently introduced. However, can this expectation lead to more powerful tests of association between diseases and rare genetic variation? The gene genealogy describes the relationships between haplotypes sampled from the general population. Although ancestral tree-based methods, inspired by the gene genealogy concept, have been developed for finding associations with common genetic variants, here we ask whether gene genealogies can help in identifying genomic regions containing multiple rare causal variants. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> With data simulated under several demographic models and using known gene genealogies, we developed and compared several tree-based statistics to determine which, if any, could detect the type of clustering expected with rare causal variants and whether the genealogic tree provides additional information about disease associations. <b><i>Results and Conclusions:</i></b> We found that a novel statistic based on the scaled distance between the tips of a tree performed better than other tree-based statistics. When data were simulated with mild population growth, this statistic outperformed two standard non-tree-based methods, showing that an ancestral tree-based approach has potential for rare variant discovery

A set-based mixed effect model for gene-environment interaction and its application to neuroimaging phenotypes

10.3389/fnins.2017.00191Frontiers in Neuroscience11APR19

FuntooNorm: An R package for normalization of DNA methylation data when there are multiple cell or tissue types

Development Psychopathology in context: famil

Genomic profiling reveals mutational landscape in parathyroid carcinomas

10.1172/jci.insight.92061JCI insight26e9206

Identification of 153 new loci associated with heel bone mineral density and functional involvement of GPC6 in osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is a common disease diagnosed primarily by measurement of bone mineral density (BMD). We undertook a genomewide association study (GWAS) in 142,487 individuals from the UK Biobank to identify loci associated with BMD as estimated by quantitative ultrasound of the heel. We identified 307 conditionally independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that attained genome-wide significance at 203 loci, explaining approximately 12% of the phenotypic variance. These included 153 previously unreported loci, and several rare variants with large effect sizes. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we undertook (1) bioinformatic, functional genomic annotation and human osteoblast expression studies; (2) gene-function prediction; (3) skeletal phenotyping of 120 knockout mice with deletions of genes adjacent to lead independent SNPs; and (4) analysis of gene expression in mouse osteoblasts, osteocytes and osteoclasts. The results implicate GPC6 as a novel determinant of BMD, and also identify abnormal skeletal phenotypes in knockout mice associated with a further 100 prioritized genes

Low-Frequency Synonymous Coding Variation in CYP2R1 Has Large Effects on Vitamin D Levels and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis

Vitamin D insufficiency is common, correctable, and influenced by genetic factors, and it has been associated with risk of several diseases. We sought to identify low-frequency genetic variants that strongly increase the risk of vitamin D insufficiency and tested their effect on risk of multiple sclerosis, a disease influenced by low vitamin D concentrations. We used whole-genome sequencing data from 2,619 individuals through the UK10K program and deep-imputation data from 39,655 individuals genotyped genome-wide. Meta-analysis of the summary statistics from 19 cohorts identified in CYP2R1 the low-frequency synonymous coding variant g.14900931G>A, which conferred a large effect on 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. The effect on 25OHD was four times larger and independent of the effect of a previously described common variant near CYP2R1. By analyzing 8,711 individuals, we showed that heterozygote carriers of this low-frequency variant have an increased risk of vitamin D insufficiency. Individuals carrying one copy of this variant also had increased odds of multiple sclerosis in a sample of 5,927 case and 5,599 control subjects. In conclusion, we describe a low-frequency CYP2R1 coding variant that exerts the largest effect upon 25OHD levels identified to date in the general European population and implicates vitami