Ohutajumise mõõtmine poliitilises diskursuses julgeoleku- ja poliitiliste debattide näitel Läti seimis

Käesoleva magistritöö eesmärgiks on uurida ohtude konstrueerimist Kopenhaageni koolkonna julgeolekustamise teooria alusel. Uurimustöö peamisteks küsimusteks on, kuidas tajutakse ohte Läti parlamendidebattides ning kuidas on julgeolekuohud konstrueeritud Läti poliitikute kõnedes ning kes seda põhiliselt teevad. Töö teoreetiline raamistik keskendub Kopenhaageni koolkonna julgeolekustamisteooriale, mida kasutatakse koos kõneaktiteooriaga, kuna see on heaks aluseks julgeolekuohtude konstrueerimise vaatlemiseks. Metodoloogia põhineb kvantitatiivsel kontentanalüüsil, mida kasutatakse kõneaktide läbi töötamiseks. Metodoloogia peatükis antakse ka ülevaade Läti erakondadest ja nende põhimõtetest, kuna see aitab paremini mõista ohukonstrueerijate tausta. Töö empiiriline andmestik pärineb Läti parlamendi- ehk seimidebattidelt. Töö käigus analüüsitakse julgeoleku- ja poliitikaalastel debattidel tehtud kõneakte, kus vaadeldakse ohukuvandite konstrueerimist ning julgeolekutustamise kasutamist. Antud uurimuses ei kasutata julgeolekustamisteooriat täies mahus, kuna uurimisküsimustele vastamiseks, pole tarvis vaadata julgeolekustamisprotsessi õnnestumist. Ohukuvandite konstrueerimiseks kasutatakse vaid teatuid julgeolekustamisteooria osasid. Käesolevas magistritöös uuritakse kõneakte, mis on tehtud 2004., 2014., 2015. ja 2016. aastal, kuna sellesse vahemikku jäävad nii Läti EL-i ja NATO-sse astumine kui ka Ukraina ja Venemaa konflikt ning põgenikekriis. Uurimustöö tulemustest selgus, et Läti parlamendidebattides tehtud kõneaktide põhjal on võimalik hinnata Läti poliitikute ohutaju muutumist ajalises perspektiivis. Magistritöö toob välja värsked andmed ohutajumise kohta Lätis ja mida peetakse julgeolekuohtudeks. Analüüsi tulemused on üsna tähtsa kaaluga, kuna eelpool mainitud kriisid kestavad ka veel praegu. Käesoleva magistritöö autor tänab uurimusega seotud osapooli nende suure toetuse ning panuse eest käesoleva töö valmimisel, eriline tänu läheb magistritöö juhendajale Heiko Pääbole.http://www.ester.ee/record=b4684724*es

The relationship between elevation roughness and tornado activity: A spatial statistical model fit to data from the central great plains

The statistical relationship between elevation roughness and tornado activity is quantified using a spatial model that controls for the effect of population on the availability of reports. Across a large portion of the central Great Plains the model shows that areas with uniform elevation tend to have more tornadoes on average than areas with variable elevation. The effect amounts to a 2.3% [(1.6%, 3.0%) = 95% credible interval] increase in the rate of a tornado occurrence per meter of decrease in elevation roughness, defined as the highest minus the lowest elevation locally. The effect remains unchanged if the model is fit to the data starting with the year 1995. The effect strengthens for the set of intense tornadoes and is stronger using an alternative definition of roughness. The elevation-roughness effect appears to be strongest over Kansas, but it is statistically significant over a broad domain that extends from Texas to South Dakota. The research is important for developing a local climatological description of tornado occurrence rates across the tornado-prone region of the Great Plains

New Tools to Identify the Location of Seagrass Meadows: Marine Grazers as Habitat Indicators

Seagrasses are hugely valuable to human life, but the global extent of seagrass meadows remains unclear. As evidence of their value, a United Nations program exists (http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/7) to try and assess their distribution and there has been a call from 122 scientists across 28 countries for more work to manage, protect and monitor seagrass meadows (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37606827). Emerging from the 12th International Seagrass Biology Workshop, held in October2016, has been the view that grazing marine megafauna may play a useful role in helping to identify previously unknown seagrass habitats. Here we describe this concept,showing how detailed information on the distribution of both dugongs (Dugong dugon) and green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) obtained, for example, by aerial surveys and satellite tracking, can reveal new information on the location of seagrass meadows. We show examples of how marine megaherbivores have been effective habitat indicators,revealing major, new, deep-water seagrass meadows and offering the potential for more informed estimates of seagrass extent in tropical and sub-tropical regions where currentinformation is often lacking

Informing research priorities for immature sea turtles through expert elicitation

This is the final version. Available from Inter Research via the DOI in this record. Although sea turtles have received substantial focus worldwide, research on the immature life stages is still relatively limited. The latter is of particular importance, given that a large proportion of sea turtle populations comprises immature individuals. We set out to identify knowledge gaps and identify the main barriers hindering research in this field. We analyzed the perceptions of sea turtle experts through an online survey which gathered their opinions on the current state of affairs on immature sea turtle research, including species and regions in need of further study, priority research questions, and barriers that have interfered with the advancement of research. Our gap analysis indicates that studies on immature leatherback Dermochelys coriacea and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata turtles are lacking, as are studies on all species based in the Indian, South Pacific, and South Atlantic Oceans. Experts also perceived that studies in population ecology, namely on survivorship and demography, and habitat use/behavior, are needed to advance the state of knowledge on immature sea turtles. Our survey findings indicate the need for more interdisciplinary research, collaborative efforts (e.g. data-sharing, joint field activities), and improved communication among researchers, funding bodies, stakeholders, and decision-makers

Mismatches in scale between highly mobile marine megafauna and marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs), particularly large MPAs, are increasing in number and size around the globe in part to facilitate the conservation of marine megafauna under the assumption that large-scale MPAs better align with vagile life histories; however, this alignment is not well established. Using a global tracking dataset from 36 species across five taxa, chosen to reflect the span of home range size in highly mobile marine megafauna, we show most MPAs are too small to encompass complete home ranges of most species. Based on size alone, 40% of existing MPAs could encompass the home ranges of the smallest ranged species, while only < 1% of existing MPAs could encompass those of the largest ranged species. Further, where home ranges and MPAs overlapped in real geographic space, MPAs encompassed < 5% of core areas used by all species. Despite most home ranges of mobile marine megafauna being much larger than existing MPAs, we demonstrate how benefits from MPAs are still likely to accrue by targeting seasonal aggregations and critical life history stages and through other management techniques.Fil: Conners, Melinda G.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos. State University of New York. Stony Brook University; Estados UnidosFil: Sisson, Nicholas B.. Old Dominion University; Estados UnidosFil: Agamboue, Pierre D.. Wildlife Conservation Society; GabónFil: Atkinson, Philip W.. British Trust For Ornithology; Reino UnidoFil: Baylis, Alastair M. M.. Macquarie University; Australia. South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute; Reino UnidoFil: Benson, Scott R.. Noaa National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Regional Office; Estados Unidos. Moss Landing Marine Laboratories; Estados UnidosFil: Block, Barbara A.. University of Stanford; Estados UnidosFil: Bograd, Steven J.. Noaa National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Regional Office; Estados UnidosFil: Bordino, Pablo. Mote Marine Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Bowen, W.D.. Bedford Institute Of Oceanography, Fisheries And Oceans Canada; Canadá. Dalhousie University Halifax; CanadáFil: Brickle, Paul. South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute; Reino Unido. University of Aberdeen; Reino Unido. University Of Aberdeeen; Reino UnidoFil: Bruno, Ignacio Matias. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: González Carman, Victoria. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; ArgentinaFil: Champagne, Cory D.. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Crocker, Daniel E.. Sonoma State University; Estados UnidosFil: Costa, Daniel P.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Dawson, Tiffany M.. University Of Central Florida; Estados Unidos. Old Dominion University; Estados UnidosFil: Deguchi, Tomohiro. Yamashina Institute For Ornithology; JapónFil: Dewar, Heidi. Noaa National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Regional Office; Estados UnidosFil: Doherty, Philip D.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Eguchi, Tomo. Noaa National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Regional Office; Estados UnidosFil: Formia, Angela. Wildlife Conservation Society; Gabón. African Aquatic Conservation Fund; Estados UnidosFil: Godley, Brendan J.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Graham, Rachel T.. Maralliance; PanamáFil: Gredzens, Christian. Padre Island National Seashore; Estados UnidosFil: Hart, Kristen M.. United States Geological Survey; Estados UnidosFil: Hawkes, Lucy A.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Henderson, Suzanne. Scottish Natural Heritage; Reino UnidoFil: Henry, Robert William. Groundswell Coastal Ecology; Estados UnidosFil: Hückstädt, Luis A.. University of Exeter; Reino Unido. University of California; Estados Unido

Informing research priorities for immature sea turtles through expert elicitation

Although sea turtles have received substantial focus worldwide, research on the immature life stages is still relatively limited. The latter is of particular importance, given that a large proportion of sea turtle populations comprises immature individuals. We set out to identify knowledge gaps and identify the main barriers hindering research in this field. We analyzed the perceptions of sea turtle experts through an online survey which gathered their opinions on the current state of affairs on immature sea turtle research, including species and regions in need of further study, priority research questions, and barriers that have interfered with the advancement of research. Our gap analysis indicates that studies on immature leatherback Dermochelys coriacea and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata turtles are lacking, as are studies on all species based in the Indian, South Pacific, and South Atlantic Oceans. Experts also perceived that studies in population ecology, namely on survivorship and demography, and habitat use/behavior, are needed to advance the state of knowledge on immature sea turtles. Our survey findings indicate the need for more inter-disciplinary research, collaborative efforts (eg data-sharing, joint field activities), and improved communication among researchers, funding bodies, stakeholders, and decision-makers

Mismatches in Scale Between Highly Mobile Marine Megafauna and Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs), particularly large MPAs, are increasing in number and size around the globe in part to facilitate the conservation of marine megafauna under the assumption that large-scale MPAs better align with vagile life histories; however, this alignment is not well established. Using a global tracking dataset from 36 species across five taxa, chosen to reflect the span of home range size in highly mobile marine megafauna, we show most MPAs are too small to encompass complete home ranges of most species. Based on size alone, 40% of existing MPAs could encompass the home ranges of the smallest ranged species, while only \u3c 1% of existing MPAs could encompass those of the largest ranged species. Further, where home ranges and MPAs overlapped in real geographic space, MPAs encompassed \u3c 5% of core areas used by all species. Despite most home ranges of mobile marine megafauna being much larger than existing MPAs, we demonstrate how benefits from MPAs are still likely to accrue by targeting seasonal aggregations and critical life history stages and through other management techniques

Mismatches in Scale Between Highly Mobile Marine Megafauna and Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs), particularly large MPAs, are increasing in number and size around the globe in part to facilitate the conservation of marine megafauna under the assumption that large-scale MPAs better align with vagile life histories; however, this alignment is not well established. Using a global tracking dataset from 36 species across five taxa, chosen to reflect the span of home range size in highly mobile marine megafauna, we show most MPAs are too small to encompass complete home ranges of most species. Based on size alone, 40% of existing MPAs could encompass the home ranges of the smallest ranged species, while only \u3c 1% of existing MPAs could encompass those of the largest ranged species. Further, where home ranges and MPAs overlapped in real geographic space, MPAs encompassed \u3c 5% of core areas used by all species. Despite most home ranges of mobile marine megafauna being much larger than existing MPAs, we demonstrate how benefits from MPAs are still likely to accrue by targeting seasonal aggregations and critical life history stages and through other management techniques

Diel and seasonal patterns in activity and home range size of green turtles on their foraging grounds revealed by extended Fastloc-GPS tracking

An animal’s home range is driven by a range of factors including top-down (predation risk) and bottom-up (habitat quality) processes, which often vary in both space and time. We assessed the role of these processes in driving spatiotemporal patterns in the home range of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas), an important marine megaherbivore. We satellite tracked adult green turtles using Fastloc-GPS telemetry in the Chagos Archipelago and tracked their fine-scale movement in different foraging areas in the Indian Ocean. Using this extensive data set (5,081 locations over 1,675 tracking days for 8 individuals) we showed that green turtles exhibit both diel and seasonal patterns in activity and home range size. At night, turtles had smaller home ranges and lower activity levels, suggesting they were resting. In the daytime, home ranges were larger and activity levels higher, indicating that turtles were actively feeding. The transit distance between diurnal and nocturnal sites varied considerably between individuals. Further, some turtles changed resting and foraging sites seasonally. These structured movements indicate that turtles had a good understanding of their foraging grounds in regards to suitable areas for foraging and sheltered areas for resting. The clear diel patterns and the restricted size of nocturnal sites could be caused by spatiotemporal variations in predation risk, although other factors (e.g. depth, tides and currents) could also be important. The diurnal and seasonal pattern in home range sizes could similarly be driven by spatiotemporal variations in habitat (e.g. seagrass or algae) quality, although this could not be confirmed

The comparison of various currency trading strategies

Valūtas tirgus ir viens no lielākajiem pasaules finanšu tirgus sektoriem un tam piemīt specifiskas īpašības (piemēram, iespēja tirgoties ar vairāk līdzekļiem nekā ieguldīts), kuras, savukārt, izmanto investori savas peļņas optimizēšanas nolūkā. Maģistra darba mērķis ir izveidot dažādas valūtas tirdzniecības stratēģijas, pielietojot ARIMA, ARMA-GARCH, slēptos Markova modeļus, u.c. metodes, un veikt tirdzniecības simulāciju dažādiem valūtu pāriem, kā arī noskaidrot, vai ar kādu no darbā aprakstītajām metodēm ir iespējams izveidot tādu valūtas tirdzniecības algoritmu, kas ilgtermiņā sniegtu peļņu. Darba gaitā izveidoti četri modeļi, kas veic tirdzniecības simulāciju, balstoties uz valūtas cenu vēsturisko informāciju. Darba izstrādes gaitā izveidotas sintakses programmā R, kuras realizē darbā aprakstītās metodes.The currency market is one of the largest sectors of the global financial market and has specific characteristics (for example, the ability to trade more money than invested), which, in turn, investors use in order to optimize their profit. The aim of the thesis is to create various currency trading strategies using ARIMA, ARMA-GARCH, hidden Markov models and other methods, as well as to carry out trading simulations for different currency pairs and find out if with any of the methods described in thesis it is possible to create a currency trading algorithm that would provide a long-term profit. Four trading simulation models that depend on historical price information were created. Syntaxes in program R, which implement the methods described in thesis, have been created during the development of the work