Urbanization Development under Climate Change: Hydrological Responses in a Peri-Urban Mediterranean Catchment

Relatively few studies have so far investigated the hydrological impacts of urbanization in Mediterranean catchments, and particularly in peri-urban catchments experiencing relatively rapid and large changes in their land-use mosaic. This study uses data-based model simulations to investigate such impacts, with the Ribeira dos Covoes catchment in Portugal as a concrete Mediterranean peri-urban catchment example. We distinguish the impacts of urbanization from those of climatic change on the water flux partitioning and connectivity in the catchment over the period 1958-2013. Decrease in precipitation over this period has primarily driven decreases in annual runoff and actual evapotranspiration, while the urbanization development has primarily changed the relative flux partitioning and connectivity pattern in the catchment. The relative contribution of overland flow to annual and seasonal runoff has increased, keeping the absolute overland flow more or less intact, while the baseflow contribution to the stream network has decreased. Methodologically, the present simulation approach provides a relevant means for distinguishing main drivers of change in hydrological flux partitioning and connectivity under concurrent urbanization and climatic changes.</p

Logarithmic correction to BH entropy as Noether charge

We consider the role of the type-A trace anomaly in static black hole solutions to semiclassical Einstein equation in four dimensions. Via Wald's Noether charge formalism, we compute the contribution to the entropy coming from the anomaly induced effective action and unveil a logarithmic correction to the Bekenstein-Hawking area law. The corrected entropy is given by a seemingly universal formula involving the coefficient of the type-A trace anomaly, the Euler characteristic of the horizon and the value at the horizon of the solution to the uniformization problem for Q-curvature. Two instances are examined in detail: Schwarzschild and a four-dimensional massless topological black hole. We also find agreement with the logarithmic correction due to one-loop contribution of conformal fields in the Schwarzschild background.Comment: 14 pages, JHEP styl

Vision and Foraging in Cormorants: More like Herons than Hawks?

Background Great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo L.) show the highest known foraging yield for a marine predator and they are often perceived to be in conflict with human economic interests. They are generally regarded as visually-guided, pursuit-dive foragers, so it would be expected that cormorants have excellent vision much like aerial predators, such as hawks which detect and pursue prey from a distance. Indeed cormorant eyes appear to show some specific adaptations to the amphibious life style. They are reported to have a highly pliable lens and powerful intraocular muscles which are thought to accommodate for the loss of corneal refractive power that accompanies immersion and ensures a well focussed image on the retina. However, nothing is known of the visual performance of these birds and how this might influence their prey capture technique. Methodology/Principal Findings We measured the aquatic visual acuity of great cormorants under a range of viewing conditions (illuminance, target contrast, viewing distance) and found it to be unexpectedly poor. Cormorant visual acuity under a range of viewing conditions is in fact comparable to unaided humans under water, and very inferior to that of aerial predators. We present a prey detectability model based upon the known acuity of cormorants at different illuminances, target contrasts and viewing distances. This shows that cormorants are able to detect individual prey only at close range (less than 1 m). Conclusions/Significance We conclude that cormorants are not the aquatic equivalent of hawks. Their efficient hunting involves the use of specialised foraging techniques which employ brief short-distance pursuit and/or rapid neck extension to capture prey that is visually detected or flushed only at short range. This technique appears to be driven proximately by the cormorant's limited visual capacities, and is analogous to the foraging techniques employed by herons

The systematic guideline review: method, rationale, and test on chronic heart failure

Background: Evidence-based guidelines have the potential to improve healthcare. However, their de-novo-development requires substantial resources-especially for complex conditions, and adaptation may be biased by contextually influenced recommendations in source guidelines. In this paper we describe a new approach to guideline development-the systematic guideline review method (SGR), and its application in the development of an evidence-based guideline for family physicians on chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A systematic search for guidelines was carried out. Evidence-based guidelines on CHF management in adults in ambulatory care published in English or German between the years 2000 and 2004 were included. Guidelines on acute or right heart failure were excluded. Eligibility was assessed by two reviewers, methodological quality of selected guidelines was appraised using the AGREE instrument, and a framework of relevant clinical questions for diagnostics and treatment was derived. Data were extracted into evidence tables, systematically compared by means of a consistency analysis and synthesized in a preliminary draft. Most relevant primary sources were re-assessed to verify the cited evidence. Evidence and recommendations were summarized in a draft guideline. Results: Of 16 included guidelines five were of good quality. A total of 35 recommendations were systematically compared: 25/35 were consistent, 9/35 inconsistent, and 1/35 un-rateable (derived from a single guideline). Of the 25 consistencies, 14 were based on consensus, seven on evidence and four differed in grading. Major inconsistencies were found in 3/9 of the inconsistent recommendations. We re-evaluated the evidence for 17 recommendations (evidence-based, differing evidence levels and minor inconsistencies) - the majority was congruent. Incongruity was found where the stated evidence could not be verified in the cited primary sources, or where the evaluation in the source guidelines focused on treatment benefits and underestimated the risks. The draft guideline was completed in 8.5 man-months. The main limitation to this study was the lack of a second reviewer. Conclusion: The systematic guideline review including framework development, consistency analysis and validation is an effective, valid, and resource saving-approach to the development of evidence-based guidelines

A New Era in the Quest for Dark Matter

There is a growing sense of `crisis' in the dark matter community, due to the absence of evidence for the most popular candidates such as weakly interacting massive particles, axions, and sterile neutrinos, despite the enormous effort that has gone into searching for these particles. Here, we discuss what we have learned about the nature of dark matter from past experiments, and the implications for planned dark matter searches in the next decade. We argue that diversifying the experimental effort, incorporating astronomical surveys and gravitational wave observations, is our best hope to make progress on the dark matter problem.Comment: Published in Nature, online on 04 Oct 2018. 13 pages, 1 figur

Cross-species gene expression analysis of species specific differences in the preclinical assessment of pharmaceutical compounds

Animals are frequently used as model systems for determination of safety and efficacy in pharmaceutical research and development. However, significant quantitative and qualitative differences exist between humans and the animal models used in research. This is as a result of genetic variation between human and the laboratory animal. Therefore the development of a system that would allow the assessment of all molecular differences between species after drug exposure would have a significant impact on drug evaluation for toxicity and efficacy. Here we describe a cross-species microarray methodology that identifies and selects orthologous probes after cross-species sequence comparison to develop an orthologous cross-species gene expression analysis tool. The assumptions made by the use of this orthologous gene expression strategy for cross-species extrapolation is that; conserved changes in gene expression equate to conserved pharmacodynamic endpoints. This assumption is supported by the fact that evolution and selection have maintained the structure and function of many biochemical pathways over time, resulting in the conservation of many important processes. We demonstrate this cross-species methodology by investigating species specific differences of the peroxisome proliferatoractivator receptor (PPAR) a response in rat and human

Network model of immune responses reveals key effectors to single and co-infection dynamics by a respiratory bacterium and a gastrointestinal helminth

Co-infections alter the host immune response but how the systemic and local processes at the site of infection interact is still unclear. The majority of studies on co-infections concentrate on one of the infecting species, an immune function or group of cells and often focus on the initial phase of the infection. Here, we used a combination of experiments and mathematical modelling to investigate the network of immune responses against single and co-infections with the respiratory bacterium Bordetella bronchiseptica and the gastrointestinal helminth Trichostrongylus retortaeformis. Our goal was to identify representative mediators and functions that could capture the essence of the host immune response as a whole, and to assess how their relative contribution dynamically changed over time and between single and co-infected individuals. Network-based discrete dynamic models of single infections were built using current knowledge of bacterial and helminth immunology; the two single infection models were combined into a co-infection model that was then verified by our empirical findings. Simulations showed that a T helper cell mediated antibody and neutrophil response led to phagocytosis and clearance of B. bronchiseptica from the lungs. This was consistent in single and co-infection with no significant delay induced by the helminth. In contrast, T. retortaeformis intensity decreased faster when co-infected with the bacterium. Simulations suggested that the robust recruitment of neutrophils in the co-infection, added to the activation of IgG and eosinophil driven reduction of larvae, which also played an important role in single infection, contributed to this fast clearance. Perturbation analysis of the models, through the knockout of individual nodes (immune cells), identified the cells critical to parasite persistence and clearance both in single and co-infections. Our integrated approach captured the within-host immuno-dynamics of bacteria-helminth infection and identified key components that can be crucial for explaining individual variability between single and co-infections in natural populations

Artificial Neural Network Inference (ANNI): A Study on Gene-Gene Interaction for Biomarkers in Childhood Sarcomas

Objective: To model the potential interaction between previously identified biomarkers in children sarcomas using artificial neural network inference (ANNI). Method: To concisely demonstrate the biological interactions between correlated genes in an interaction network map, only 2 types of sarcomas in the children small round blue cell tumors (SRBCTs) dataset are discussed in this paper. A backpropagation neural network was used to model the potential interaction between genes. The prediction weights and signal directions were used to model the strengths of the interaction signals and the direction of the interaction link between genes. The ANN model was validated using Monte Carlo cross-validation to minimize the risk of over-fitting and to optimize generalization ability of the model. Results: Strong connection links on certain genes (TNNT1 and FNDC5 in rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS); FCGRT and OLFM1 in Ewing’s sarcoma (EWS)) suggested their potency as central hubs in the interconnection of genes with different functionalities. The results showed that the RMS patients in this dataset are likely to be congenital and at low risk of cardiomyopathy development. The EWS patients are likely to be complicated by EWS-FLI fusion and deficiency in various signaling pathways, including Wnt, Fas/Rho and intracellular oxygen. Conclusions: The ANN network inference approach and the examination of identified genes in the published literature within the context of the disease highlights the substantial influence of certain genes in sarcomas

Evidence for an excess of B -> D(*) Tau Nu decays

Based on the full BaBar data sample, we report improved measurements of the ratios R(D(*)) = B(B -> D(*) Tau Nu)/B(B -> D(*) l Nu), where l is either e or mu. These ratios are sensitive to new physics contributions in the form of a charged Higgs boson. We measure R(D) = 0.440 +- 0.058 +- 0.042 and R(D*) = 0.332 +- 0.024 +- 0.018, which exceed the Standard Model expectations by 2.0 sigma and 2.7 sigma, respectively. Taken together, our results disagree with these expectations at the 3.4 sigma level. This excess cannot be explained by a charged Higgs boson in the type II two-Higgs-doublet model. We also report the observation of the decay B -> D Tau Nu, with a significance of 6.8 sigma.Comment: Expanded section on systematics, text corrections, improved the format of Figure 2 and included the effect of the change of the Tau polarization due to the charged Higg

The Formation and Evolution of the First Massive Black Holes

The first massive astrophysical black holes likely formed at high redshifts (z>10) at the centers of low mass (~10^6 Msun) dark matter concentrations. These black holes grow by mergers and gas accretion, evolve into the population of bright quasars observed at lower redshifts, and eventually leave the supermassive black hole remnants that are ubiquitous at the centers of galaxies in the nearby universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the formation of the earliest seed black holes are poorly understood. The purpose of this review is threefold: (1) to describe theoretical expectations for the formation and growth of the earliest black holes within the general paradigm of hierarchical cold dark matter cosmologies, (2) to summarize several relevant recent observations that have implications for the formation of the earliest black holes, and (3) to look into the future and assess the power of forthcoming observations to probe the physics of the first active galactic nuclei.Comment: 39 pages, review for "Supermassive Black Holes in the Distant Universe", Ed. A. J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publisher