The Value of Seasonal Productivity Forecasting in Biodiesel Plans

Crop productivity is commonly assumed as a deterministic function when developing agricultural plans. Actual data prove however that, even for the same soil at the same location, crop productivity can be better interpreted as a random variable due to the meteorological conditions of the specific year. For the production of biodiesel, crops are easily substitutable and the farmer can chose every year between various alternatives. Without information on the seasonal meteorology, the farmers select the crop to cultivate mainly on the basis of the expected productivity. However, changes in the meteorological situation may result in a reduction in crop profitability. As a result, a crop, that on average is less interesting, may become the best choice in a specific year. Given that seasonal forecasts based on long range climatic variables, such as ENSO, are becoming available, the paper examines their effectiveness in biodiesel production plans, with reference to an area in Mato Grosso, Brazil. We formulate and solve a mathematical programming problem to determine the most efficient crop plan under different scenarios: (i) no information about the seasonal meteorology, (ii) perfect information and (iii) meteorological forecasts with different precision. This allows us to quantitatively evaluate how important the availability of seasonal productivity forecasting might be and shows that even a rough seasonal forecast, if systematically applied, may improve the average production and reduce the risk of traditional agricultural decisions

The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.Expert Elicitation, Research, Development and Demonstration, Solar Technologies

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

This paper describes the conceptual design of a modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model, cost-supply curves and a forest ownership decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Forest reference levels under Regulation (EU) 2018/841 for the period 2021-2025: Overview and main findings of the technical assessment

Regulation (EU) 2018/841 (‘LULUCF regulation’) sets the accounting rules for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector in the EU for 2021–2030, i.e. how the emissions and removals of greenhouse gases from LULUCF will be counted towards the climate targets. The LULUCF regulation is part of the EU’s commitment to reduce overall emissions by at least 40% by 2030 under the Climate and Energy framework. Every Member State must balance its accounted greenhouse gas emissions on the LULUCF sector by an equal amount of accounted greenhouse gas removals. Possible surplus removals, under certain conditions and up to an overall total of 280 Mt CO2e, may be used to compensate emissions from the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation. The technically most complex part of the LULUCF regulation is the set of accounting rules for managed forest land, which are based on a projected Forest Reference Level (FRL), estimated nationally by each EU Member State. The FRL is a benchmark level against which future net emissions from forests are accounted for. In its essence, the FRL is a projection of the net emissions from managed forest land in 2021—2030 (divided into two compliance periods, 2021—2025 and 2026—2030), assuming that the forest management practices had continued similar to the practices in the reference period 2000—2009. This way, the FRL provides a means to account for the impact of policy changes on the emissions and removals from forests, while factoring out the impact of age-related dynamics in the forests. The FRLs for the 2021—2025 period are reported as a part of National Forestry Accounting Plans (NFAPs). After a thorough assessment by the European Commission and a dedicated Expert Group in 2019 and 2020, these FRLs are due to be laid down in a delegated act adopted by the Commission by the end of October 2020. This report outlines the main technical findings of the assessment of the Member States’ proposed FRLs, and complements the forthcoming Commission Staff Working Document (2020) accompanying the delegated act. The assessment found that the Member States had generally followed the principles and criteria laid out in the LULUCF regulation. The NFAPs provide a wealth of information on the forests and forest management practices in the Member States – some of which has not been available for the international community before – and in general include the elements required by the LULUCF regulation. All Member States projected the development of the forest net emissions for 2021—2025 as a continuation of the historical management practices, therefore excluding assumptions on policy development. While the submissions by the Member States were in general detailed and carefully prepared, the assessment identified in several cases minor issues that will need to be amended before the compliance check. The most common issues are related to methodological inconsistencies between carbon pools, greenhouse gases or forest area included in the FRL and those reported in the national greenhouse gas inventories. Some of these mismatches have already been amended by the Member States through Addenda or Corrigenda to the NFAPs. The remaining inconsistencies will be addressed through technical corrections to the FRLs at the end of the compliance period and therefore do not impair the reliability of the FRL as an accounting baseline. For five Member States, the assessment resulted in a recalculation of the Member State-proposed FRL by the Commission. In numerical terms, the sum of the Member States’ FRLs (incl. the United Kingdom) in the delegated act is a projected sink of -337 Mt CO2 y-1 for the period 2021–2025. This projection is about 18% lower than the sink of -413 Mt CO2 y-1 reported by the EU 2019 greenhouse gas inventory on managed forest land for the period 2000—2009 (EEA 2019). The FRL projection is associated with a projected increase of harvest by about 19% over the same period, due to age-related effects. It is noteworthy that the FRLs project sustainable forest management practices as documented in the period 2000–2009, taking into account dynamic age-related forest characteristics, and do not represent an expected sink or expected harvest levels. Instead, the FRLs laid out in the delegated act provide a robust and trustworthy counterfactual for accounting the impact of mitigation actions on emissions and removals from managed forest land in the first compliance period 2021—2025.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

Methods and tools to evaluate the availability of renewable energy sources

The recent statements of both the European Union and the US Presidency pushed in the direction of using renewable forms of energy, in order to act against climate changes induced by the growing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In this paper, a survey regarding methods and tools presently available to determine potential and exploitable energy in the most important renewable sectors (i.e., solar, wind, wave, biomass and geothermal energy) is presented. Moreover, challenges for each renewable resource are highlighted as well as the available tools that can help in evaluating the use of a mix of different sources

The experience of Don Milani Bilingual School. An educational challenge.

reservedLa ricerca esplora il ruolo dell'innovazione nell'istruzione, delineando le modalità in cui la scuola può introdurre nuove metodologie e tecnologie educative per migliorare l'apprendimento degli studenti. Utilizzando il metodo di ricerca dello studio di caso, vengono analizzate le modalità con cui la scuola Don Milani Bilingual School sta rispondendo alle domande della società contemporanea attraverso l'implementazione di tecnologie avanzate, l'inserimento dell'insegnamento bilingue e l'utilizzo di ambienti educativi innovativi nella propria filosofia educativa, offrendo ai propri studenti esperienze di apprendimento autentiche e concrete, in linea con le esigenze della società. Il presente lavoro di ricerca si concentra sul rapporto tra scuola e cambiamenti sociali, esaminando le sfide e le opportunità che la scuola del futuro dovrà affrontare per fornire un'istruzione di qualità. In particolare, viene analizzato come il legame tra società e scuola sia cambiato negli ultimi decenni, dalle riforme degli anni Sessanta fino ai giorni nostri, evidenziando come la scuola debba continuamente adattarsi, innovare ed innovarsi per rispondere alle esigenze della società in evoluzione

Energy from Agricultural and Animal Farming Residues: Potential at a Local Scale

Animal wastes from high-density farming have severe impacts on the nitrogen cycle. According to current regulations, the disposal of manure on cropland is constrained by nitrogen content in the agricultural soils. On the contrary, anaerobic digestion (AD) of these wastes can produce energy and a digestate, which is easier to handle than manure and can be applied for agronomic uses. When herbaceous crops are co-digested with manure to increase the efficiency of biogas production, the nitrogen content in the digestate further increases, unless these larger plants are equipped with nitrogen stripping technologies. We propose a model to compare larger (cooperative) and smaller (single parcel) AD conversion plants. The whole process is modeled: from the collection of manures, to the cultivation of energy crops, to the disposal of the digestate. The model maximizes the energy produced on the basis of available biomass, road network, local heat demand and local availability of land for digestate disposal. Results are the optimal size and location of the plants, their technology and collection basins. The environmental performances of such plants are also evaluated. The study has been applied to the province of Forlì-Cesena, an Italian district where animal farming is particularly relevant

Modeling the role of forests in a regional carbon mitigation plan

Biomass from the forest sector can be an important source of renewable energy and can contribute to climate change mitigation and bioenergy development. However, the removal of biomass from forests has significant impacts on the forest ecosystem. For instance, it modifies soil litter which is particularly important to preserve soil characteristics and to sustain a diversity of organisms. Our aim is to analyze alternatives of sustainable forest management and compare how they perform in terms of carbon savings in order to assess the role of the sector in a regional emission reduction plan. The analysis is performed applying CO2FIX, a well-known carbon accounting model to the forests of the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna. The behavior of the most important forest macro-categories is investigated under common management alternatives: no harvest activities, maintenance of a constant stock, different rotation lengths, and maximization of harvested biomass. We evaluate their impact at landscape level on the regional carbon budget, thus estimating the maximum potential contribution from the forest sector

The Value of Seasonal Productivity Forecasting in Biofuel Plans

Crop productivity is commonly assumed as a fixed parameter when developing agricultural plans. On the contrary, actual data prove that, even for the same soil at the same location, crop productivity is highly variable. It can be better interpreted as a random variable due to the meteorological conditions of the specific year. For the production of biodiesel, crops are easily substitutable and the farmer can chose every year between various alternatives. Without information on the seasonal meteorology, the farmers must select the crop to cultivate on the basis of the average productivity. However, changes in the meteorological situation may result in an inversion of crop profitability. As a result, a crop, that on average is less interesting, may become the best choice in a specific year. Given that seasonal forecasts based on long range climatic variables, such as ENSO, are becoming available, the paper examines their effectiveness in a biodiesel production plan for an area in Mato Grosso, Brazil. We formulate and solve a mathematical programming problem to determine the most efficient crop plan under different scenarios: no information about the seasonal meteorology, perfect information and meteorological forecasts with different precision. This allows to quantitatively evaluate how important the availability of seasonal productivity forecasting can be and shows that even a rough seasonal forecast, if systematically applied, may improve the average production and reduce the risk of traditional agricultural decisions.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat