5,936 research outputs found

    Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

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    Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marine taxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions can have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity and single-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking the effect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently pop - ulation growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture–mark−recaptures (CMR) and modelled the probability of skipping reproduction as a function of oceanographic variables using CMR models. We demonstrate that a decrease in sea surface temperature in the pre-breeding period negatively influences skipping propensity, and therefore hypothesize that this behaviour would have significant influence on population abundance over time. For this reason, we analysed population growth as a function of skipping probability as affected by oceanographic conditions. We used stochastic demographic models to forecast the fate of the population, and evaluated contrasted environmental condition scenarios. As a result, we found that a decrease in frequency of cold winter events would probably reduce skipping propensity, with a positive effect on the population as a whole

    An individual-based model to explore the impacts of lesser-known social dynamics on wolf populations

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    The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to project wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM projects wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different breeder replacement strategies. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model projections. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications

    Semiparametric Regression in Capture-Recapture Modelling

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    Capture-recapture models were developed to estimate survival using data arising from marking and monitoring wild animals over time. Variation in the survival process may be explained by incorporating relevant covariates. We develop nonparametric and semiparametric regression models for estimating survival in capture-recapture models. A fully Bayesian approach using MCMC simulations was employed to estimate the model parameters. The work is illustrated by a study of Snow petrels, in which survival probabilities are expressed as nonlinear functions of a climate covariate, using data from a 40-year study on marked individuals, nesting at Petrels Island, Terre Adelie

    Gradients from GOCE reveal gravity changes before Pisagua Mw = 8.2 and Iquique Mw = 7.7 large megathrust earthquakes

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    Considerable improvements in the measurement of the Earth gravity field from GOCE satellite mission have provided global gravity field models with homogeneous coverage, high precision and good spatial resolution. In particular, the vertical gravity gradient (Tzz), in comparison to the classic Bouguer anomaly, defines more accurately superficial mass heterogeneities. Moreover, the correction of these satellitederived data from the effect of Earth topographic masses by means of new techniques taking into account the Earth curvature, improves results in regional analyses. In a recent work we found a correlation between Tzz and slip distribution for the 2010 Maule Mw= 8.8 earthquake. In the present work, we derive the vertical gravity gradient from the last GOCE only model, corrected by the topographic effect and also by the sediments on depocenters of the offshore region at the PerueChile margin, in order to study a spatial relationship between different lobes of the gravity derived signal and the seismic sources of large megathrust earthquakes. In particular, we analyze this relation for the slip models of the 1996 Mw = 7.7 Nazca, 2001 Mw = 8.4 Arequipa, 2007 Mw = 8.0 Pisco events and for the slip models of the 2014 Mw = 8.2 Pisagua and Mw = 7.7 Iquique earthquakes from Schurr et al. (2014), including the previously analyzed 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule event. Then we find a good correlation between vertical gravity gradients and main rupture zones, correlation that becomes even stronger as the event magnitude increases. Besides this, a gravity fall in the gravity gradient was noticed over the area of the main slip patches at least for the two years before 2014 Mw = 8.2 Pisagua and Mw = 7.7 Iquique earthquakes. Additionally, we found temporal variations of the gravity field after 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule event, related to the main patches of the slip distribution, and coseismic deformation. Therefore, we analyzed vertical gravity gradient field variations as an indirect measure of the variable seismic coupling finding a potential relationship between Tzz and the seismic b-value. These relationships exemplify the strong potential of the satellite only derived models as a predictive tool to determine potential seismic energy released in a subduction segment, determining the potential size of a potential rupture zone, and in particular internal slip distribution that allows inferring coseismic displacement field at surface

    New evidence about the subduction of the Copiap\uf2 ridge beneath South America, and its connection with the Chilean-Pampean flat slab, tracked by satellite GOCE and EGM2008 models

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    Satellite-only gravity measurements and those integrated with terrestrial observations provide global gravity field models of unprecedented precision and spatial resolution, which allow analyzing lithospheric structure allowing the analysis of the lithospheric structure. We used the model EGM2008 (Earth Gravitational Model) to calculate the gravity anomaly and the vertical gravity gradient in the South Central Andes region, correcting these quantities by the topographic effect. Both quantities show a spatial relationship between the projected subduction of the Copiap\uf3 aseismic ridge (located at 33 about 27\uba 30\u2019 S), its potential deformational effects in the overriding plate, and the Ojos del Salado-San Buenaventura volcanic lineament. This volcanic lineament constitutes a projection of the volcanic arc towards the retroarc zone, whose origin and development were not clearly understood. The analysis of the gravity anomalies, at the extrapolated zone of the Copiap\uf3 ridge beneath the continent, shows a change in the general NNE38 trend of the Andean structures to an ENE-direction coincident with the area of the Ojos del Salado-San Buenaventura volcanic lineament. This anomalous pattern over the upper plate is interpreted to be linked with the subduction of the Copiap\uf3 ridge. We explore the relation between deformational effects and volcanism at the northern Chilean-Pampean flat slab and the collision of the Copiap\uf3 ridge, on the basis of the Moho geometry and elastic thicknesses calculated from the new satellite GOCE data. Neotectonic deformations interpreted in previous works associated with volcanic eruptions along the Ojos del Salado-San Buenaventura volcanic lineament is interpreted as caused by crustal doming, imprinted by the subduction of the Copiap\uf3 ridge, evidenced by crustal thickening at the sites of ridge inception along the trench. Finally, we propose that the Copiap\uf3 ridge could have controlled the northern edge of the Chilean-Pampean flat slab, due to higher buoyancy, similarly to the control that the Juan Fernandez ridge exerts in the geometry of the flat slab further south

    Evaluation of crowdsourcing Wi-Fi radio map creation in a real scenario for AAL applications

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    Indoor location at room level plays a key role for providing useful services for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) applications. Wi-Fi fingerprinting indoor location methods are extensively used due to the widespread availability of WiFi infrastructures. A main drawback of Wi-Fi fingerprinting methods is the temporal cost involved in creating the radio maps. Crowdsourcing strategies have been presented as a way to minimize the cost of radio map creation. In this work, we present an extensive study of the issues involved when using crowdsourcing strategies for that purpose. Results provided by extensive experiments performed in a real scenario by three users during two weeks are presented. The main conclusions are: i) crowdsourcing data improves accuracy location in most studied cases; ii) accuracy of Wi-Fi fingerprinting methods decay along time; iii) device diversity is an important issue even when using the same device model

    Calculation of the Energy Band Diagram of a Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting Cell

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    A physical model is presented for the semiconductor electrode of a photoelectrochemical cell. The model accounts for the potential drop in the Helmholtz layer and thus enables description of both band edge pinning and unpinning. The model is based on the continuity equations for charge carriers and direct charge transfer from the energy bands to the electrolyte. A quantitative calculation of the position of the energy bands and the variation of the quasi-Fermi levels in the semiconductor with respect to the water reduction and oxidation potentials are presented. Calculated photocurrent–voltage curves are compared with established analytical models and experimental data. Our model calculations are suitable to enhance understanding and improve the properties of semiconductors for photoelectrochemical water splitting
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