The economic interrelationships of tourism: a computable general equilibrium analysis

This thesis investigates the economic interrelationships that tourism has in the wider economy in the context of a country that is heavily reliant on tourism revenues. More specifically, it seeks to examine the welfare, intersectoral, distributional, competitive, investment and dynamic issues relating to the tourism sector that have been under investigated in both the tourism and trade literature. These issues have been investigated empirically using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis is set out as follows: Chapter 1 sets out the relative position of Spain in terms of its international competitors and defines the tourism sector. It also explains why CGE modelling is felt to be the most suitable approach for modelling the Spanish tourism sector for the purposes of this thesis. It also presents an overview of the planned research. Chapter 2 gives an overview of the structure and key features of the Spanish economy. It discusses the evolution of the tourism sector and how it varies between the different autonomous communities in Spain. The Spanish Tourism Satellite Account is presented and Spanish tourism policy is examined. Chapter 3 reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on CGE modelling and tourism analysis relevant to this thesis. Various types of CGE model are scrutinised and their usefulness assessed. The role of tourism in international trade is considered and the characteristics of the tourism sector that need to be embodied into a CGE model are discussed. Chapter 4 describes the core CGE model used in this thesis and the underlying equations that are associated with it. The central data set used is the Spanish input-output table for 1996. This data set is described and all subsequent input-output tables used in other chapters are amended so as to be consistent with this data set. Closure rules, elasticity parameters, solution methods and calibration methods are also discussed. Chapter 5 presents the results of the experiments carried out with the dynamic Spanish national CGE model. The core model presented in Chapter 4 has been extended to incorporate foreign direct investment and these changes are disclosed in the opening sections. Counterfactuals are designed so as to estimate the impact of foreign direct investment inflows and tourism demand shocks on the Spanish economy. Sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 6 presents the results of the experiments carried out on the static regional CGE model of the regions of Spain. Input-Output tables for four of Spain's autonomous regions were obtained and integrated with the Spanish national table to create a data set which accounts for the four regions analysed and the remainder of the Spanish economy. The model presented in Chapter 4 is adapted to incorporate regional trade flows and structural differences are discussed. Counterfactuals are designed in order to investigate how regional tax policy might affect tourism flows in Spain and how tourism demand impacts on different regions in Spain. Sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 7 presents the results of the experiments of the dynamic CGE model for the Canary Islands. The core model is identical to that presented in Chapter 4, except that it is applied at a sub-national rather than a national level. Counterfactuals are designed so as to take account of the issues affecting a small island economy that is heavily reliant on tourism. As before, sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 8 summarises the findings of this study, highlights possibly policy implications and cites limitations of the research. Suggestions for further research are also highlighted

Machine learning for real-time aggregated prediction of hospital admission for emergency patients

Machine learning for hospital operations is under-studied. We present a prediction pipeline that uses live electronic health-records for patients in a UK teaching hospital's emergency department (ED) to generate short-term, probabilistic forecasts of emergency admissions. A set of XGBoost classifiers applied to 109,465 ED visits yielded AUROCs from 0.82 to 0.90 depending on elapsed visit-time at the point of prediction. Patient-level probabilities of admission were aggregated to forecast the number of admissions among current ED patients and, incorporating patients yet to arrive, total emergency admissions within specified time-windows. The pipeline gave a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.0 admissions (mean percentage error of 17%) versus 6.5 (32%) for a benchmark metric. Models developed with 104,504 later visits during the Covid-19 pandemic gave AUROCs of 0.68-0.90 and MAE of 4.2 (30%) versus a 4.9 (33%) benchmark. We discuss how we surmounted challenges of designing and implementing models for real-time use, including temporal framing, data preparation, and changing operational conditions

Convocation

Program listing performers and works performe

Формирование эмоциональной культуры как компонента инновационной культуры студентов

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders1 and Darwin was one of the first to recognise that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness2. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity, ROH), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power3,4. Here we use ROH to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity (SROH) and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in 1 second (FEV1), general cognitive ability (g) and educational attainment (nominal p<1 × 10−300, 2.1 × 10−6, 2.5 × 10−10, 1.8 × 10−10). In each case increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing convincing evidence for the first time that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples5,6, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection7, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been

The economic interrelationships of tourism : a computable general equilibrium analysis

This thesis investigates the economic interrelationships that tourism has in the wider economy in the context of a country that is heavily reliant on tourism revenues. More specifically, it seeks to examine the welfare, intersectoral, distributional, competitive, investment and dynamic issues relating to the tourism sector that have been under investigated in both the tourism and trade literature. These issues have been investigated empirically using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis is set out as follows: Chapter 1 sets out the relative position of Spain in terms of its international competitors and defines the tourism sector. It also explains why CGE modelling is felt to be the most suitable approach for modelling the Spanish tourism sector for the purposes of this thesis. It also presents an overview of the planned research. Chapter 2 gives an overview of the structure and key features of the Spanish economy. It discusses the evolution of the tourism sector and how it varies between the different autonomous communities in Spain. The Spanish Tourism Satellite Account is presented and Spanish tourism policy is examined. Chapter 3 reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on CGE modelling and tourism analysis relevant to this thesis. Various types of CGE model are scrutinised and their usefulness assessed. The role of tourism in international trade is considered and the characteristics of the tourism sector that need to be embodied into a CGE model are discussed. Chapter 4 describes the core CGE model used in this thesis and the underlying equations that are associated with it. The central data set used is the Spanish input-output table for 1996. This data set is described and all subsequent input-output tables used in other chapters are amended so as to be consistent with this data set. Closure rules, elasticity parameters, solution methods and calibration methods are also discussed. Chapter 5 presents the results of the experiments carried out with the dynamic Spanish national CGE model. The core model presented in Chapter 4 has been extended to incorporate foreign direct investment and these changes are disclosed in the opening sections. Counterfactuals are designed so as to estimate the impact of foreign direct investment inflows and tourism demand shocks on the Spanish economy. Sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 6 presents the results of the experiments carried out on the static regional CGE model of the regions of Spain. Input-Output tables for four of Spain's autonomous regions were obtained and integrated with the Spanish national table to create a data set which accounts for the four regions analysed and the remainder of the Spanish economy. The model presented in Chapter 4 is adapted to incorporate regional trade flows and structural differences are discussed. Counterfactuals are designed in order to investigate how regional tax policy might affect tourism flows in Spain and how tourism demand impacts on different regions in Spain. Sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 7 presents the results of the experiments of the dynamic CGE model for the Canary Islands. The core model is identical to that presented in Chapter 4, except that it is applied at a sub-national rather than a national level. Counterfactuals are designed so as to take account of the issues affecting a small island economy that is heavily reliant on tourism. As before, sensitivity analysis of the key exogenous parameters is also undertaken. Chapter 8 summarises the findings of this study, highlights possibly policy implications and cites limitations of the research. Suggestions for further research are also highlighted.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Effectiveness of tax incentives for venture capital and business angels

The Capital Markets Union project (CMU) aims to strengthen the single market by deepening the integration of investment across the European Union. Improved access to finance is a key component of this project, in particular for start-ups, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and young companies with innovative growth plans. Historically, European SMEs have been primarily dependent on bank finance. In the wake of the financial crisis, this source of funding has been restricted by refinancing capacity, risk appetite and capital adequacy of the banking sector. This has forced young, growing and innovative businesses to seek finance from different sources, such as venture capital and business angels. This study investigates the part that tax incentives for venture capital and business angels can play in fostering investment, with the intention of promoting the diffusion of best practice across Member States. In doing so, this study recognises that tax incentives form part of a broader set of policy tools and that it is important to consider the broader policy mix when analysing tax incentives

The impact of taxes on the competitiveness of European Tourism

Tourism is an important economic sector bringing a very substantial contribution to the EU economy. Achieving growth in this increasingly competitive international market requires a supportive regulatory environment, and taxation is a core component of this. While on the one hand taxes directly impact the margins made by businesses and the prices faced by tourists, on the other hand they are an important source of government revenue, which in turn is used to finance infrastructure and support to the tourism sector.This study’s objective is to review the current tourism-related tax structures in place at a national level in the EU-28 countries. This includes compiling a database of the current tourism-related taxes at the national level in the EU and an analysis of the effects of tourism taxes on the competitiveness of tourism enterprises.The study’s empirical evidence suggests a strong case for reduced taxes on tourists in order to improve the competitiveness of tourist destinations and support the local tourism sector. However, given the need to raise revenue on the one hand and the need to maintain competitiveness on the other, policy makers need to carefully design the tax system so as to balance these conflicting objectives