Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over Dire-Dawa, 1980-2018

Extreme climate events have profound impacts on economies and livelihoods of many regions of the world. In Ethiopia, for example the major floods such as in Dire-dawa and Omo basin of June 2006 illustrates the risks to ecosystems, human health and welfare, and infrastructure from short duration weather extremes. There is a paucity of information on trends in climate extremes in the country. However, a joint World Meteorological Commission for Climatology/World Climate Research Programme (WCPRP) project on climate Variability and Predictability (WMO CCl/CLIVAR) Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices have defined 27 core climate indices mainly focusing on extreme events which can be derived through the use of RClim-Dex Software. In this study, therefore, the RClim-Dex software has been used to derive climate extreme indices for Dire-Dawa station in the Eastern Ethiopia region based on climate data for the period 1980 to 2018. The objective was to examine changes in climate extremes over the city for water provision and urban planning such as flood management practice. These indices have shown insignificant decreasing trends in annual rainfall, Consecutive maximum 5 days precipitation and R95p, R95p% precipitation. A Significant warming pattern was evident in both the maximum and minimum temperature indices. In general the results of this study are in a general agreement with what we have been observed with people’s perception about extreme weather events in the last 39 years. Keywords: RClimDex, Climate Change, extremes Weather, trends and people perception DOI: 10.7176/JEES/11-9-03 Publication date:September 30th 202

Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia: Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors in Gudeya Bila and Boneya Boshe Districts of East Wollega Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) remains a huge threat to cattle production in sub Saharan African countries in general and in Ethiopia in  particular. A cross sectional study was conducted between November, 2017 and June, 2018 to estimate the seroprevalence and associated risk factors of CBPP in the Gudeya Bila and Boneya Boshe districts of East Wollega Zone, Oromia Regional State. The study was conducted on 384 cattle with no history of vaccination against CBPP, using systematic random sampling technique. Blood samples were collected from the jugular vein of each animal and tested by competitive ELISA. Information on risk factors influencing the occurrence of CBPP was collected using questionnaire survey. Data obtained from both serological and questionnaire surveys were analyzed by using SPSS software version 20. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association of exposure variables with anti-mycoplasma mycoides subspecies small colony antibodies. The results indicated that, the overall seroprevalence of CBPP at individual animal-level and herd-level was 8.6% and 26.3%, respectively. There was a statistically significant association in the sero-prevalence of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides SC (MMmsSC) antibody (P< 0.05) with the poor body condition score, origin of animals (purchasing from outside of herd) and previous history of CBPP disease at individual animal and large herd size at herd level. This study showed that the overall prevalence of CBPP in study area was high. This warrants the implementation of appropriate preventive and control practice. Keywords: Boneya Boshe, Bovine, CBPP, c-ELISA, Ethiopia, Gudeya Bila, Sero-prevalenc

HIV-1 INFECTION AMONG EMPLOYEES OF THE ETHIOPIAN FREIGHT TRANSPORT CORPORATION

SUMMARY: In the study on HIV-l infection conducted in July 1988, 995 long distance truck drivers, their assistants, and lorry technicians employed by the Ethiopian Freight Transport Corporation (EFTC) were enrolled. 89.4% of trips made by the drivers were along the Addis Ababa -Assab road. The HIV prevalence rates were 13% among 468 drivers, 12.9% among 209 drivers assistants, and 4.1% among 318 technicians. The prevalence rate among those who served for < 5 yrs was 4.7% (n = 297) .Those who served longer in the Corporation (82.9% of whom are drivers) had a mean prevalence rate of 12.5% (n=698). Drivers had more sexual partners and more frequently experienced sexually transmitted diseases than the technicians. The study indicated that the long distance truck drivers in Ethiopia practiced frequent contacts with female sex workers. They were at a significantly higher risk to acquire HIV infection than the technicians employed at the same corporation

ELISA FALSE POSITIVITY IN RELATION TO HIV -1 PREVALENCE IN ETHIOPIA

ABSTRACT: A close investigation of data accumulated over several years at the National Referral Laboratory for AIDS (NRLA), revealed a certain pattern in the number of false positive results that occur in population groups with a given prevalence of HIV -1 infection. To provide more accurate information regarding this observation 8850 serum samples from females with multi-partner sexual contact (MPSC) residing in different regions of Ethiopia with varying HIV -1 prevalence rates, were collected and tested using 1st and 2nd generation enzyme immunoassays (EIA) and a western blot. The results obtained from this study suggest that the rate of the occurrence of false positive enzyme linked imrnuno-sorbent assay (ELISA) results during laboratory testing for HIV -1 antibody is (regardless of the quality of antigen used) inversely proportional to the prevalence of HIV-l in a given population group

HIV -1 INFECTION AND SOME RELATED RISK FACTORS AMONG FEMALE SEX WORKERS IN ADDIS ABABA

SUMMARY: A sero-epidemiological survey on HIV-l infection was carried out in July 1989, among four groups of female sex workers randomly selected in Addis Ababa. The four groups were comprised of: bar girls, tej (traditional wine) sellers, tella (traditional beer) sellers and females in red light houses. Sera were tested by ELISA and confirmed y western blot. The mean age of the 2617 females studied was 31.2 years, and the prevalence rate for HIV-1 was 24.7%. Persons in the 15-24 age group were affected more frequently. The highest prevalence (43.8%) was found among the females in red light houses. Females with relatively larger number of sexual partners and those who had previous exposure to STDs, had a higher prevalence of the infection. The survey revealed that HIV-1 is highly prevalent among females practicing multi-partner sexual contact (MPSC) in Addis Ababa, and the infection concentrates in the central areas of the city

Topographic Controls on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard at Aluto Volcano (Ethiopia) Identified Using a Novel Zero‐Censored Gaussian Process Emulator

Aluto volcano (Central Ethiopia) displays a complex, hybrid topography, combining elements typical of caldera systems (e.g., a central, flat caldera floor) and stratovolcanoes (e.g., relatively high and steep, radial flanks, related to eruptions occurring clustered in space). The most recent known eruptions at Aluto have commonly generated column-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), a hazardous phenomenon that can pose a significant risk to inhabited areas on and around the volcano. In order to analyze and quantify the role that Aluto's complex topography has on PDC hazard, we apply a versatile probabilistic strategy, which merges the TITAN2D model for PDCs with a novel zero-censored Gaussian Process (zGP) emulator, enabling robust uncertainty quantification at tractable computational costs. Results from our analyses indicate a critical role of the eruptive vent location, but also highlight a complex interplay between the topography and PDC volume and mobility. The relative importance of each factor reciprocally depends on the other factors. Thus, large PDCs (≥0.1–0.5 km3) can diminish the influence of topography over proximal regions of flow propagation, but PDCs respond to large- and small-scale topographic features over medial to distal areas, and the zGP captures processes like PDC channelization and overbanking. The novel zGP can be applied to other PDC models and can enable specific investigations of PDC dynamics, topographic interactions, and PDC hazard at many volcanic systems worldwide. Potentially, it could also be used during volcanic crises, when time constraints usually only permit computation of scenario-based hazard assessments

A Large-Scale Genome-Wide Association Analyses of Ethiopian Sorghum Landrace Collection Reveal Loci Associated With Important Traits

The eastern Africa region, Ethiopia and its surroundings, is considered as the center of origin and diversity for sorghum, and has contributed to global sorghum genetic improvement. The germplasm from this region harbors enormous genetic variation for various traits but little is known regarding the genetic architecture of most traits. Here, 1425 Ethiopian landrace accessions were phenotyped under field conditions for presence or absence of awns, panicle compactness and shape, panicle exsertion, pericarp color, glume cover, plant height and smut resistance under diverse environmental conditions in Ethiopia. In addition, F1 hybrids obtained from a subset of 1341 accessions crossed to an A1 cytoplasmic male sterile line, ATx623, were scored for fertility/sterility reactions. Subsequently, genotyping-by-sequencing generated a total of 879,407 SNPs from which 72,190 robust SNP markers were selected after stringent quality control (QC). Pairwise distance-based hierarchical clustering identified 11 distinct groups. Of the genotypes assigned to either one of the 11 sub-populations, 65% had high ancestry membership coefficient with the likelihood of more than 0.60 and the remaining 35% represented highly admixed accessions. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) identified loci and SNPs associated with aforementioned traits. GWAS based on compressed mixed linear model (CMLM) identified SNPs with significant association (FDR ≤ 0.05) to the different traits studied. The percentage of total phenotypic variation explained with significant SNPs across traits ranged from 2 to 43%. Candidate genes showing significant association with different traits were identified. The sorghum bHLH transcription factor, ABORTED MICROSPORES was identified as a strong candidate gene conditioning male fertility. Notably, sorghum CLAVATA1 receptor like kinase, known for regulation of plant growth, and the ETHYLENE RESPONSIVE TRANSCRIPTION FACTOR gene RAP2-7, known to suppress transition to flowering, were significantly associated with plant height. In addition, the YELLOW SEED1 like MYB transcription factor and TANNIN1 showed strong association with pericarp color validating previous observations. Overall, the genetic architecture of natural variation representing the complex Ethiopian sorghum germplasm was established. The study contributes to the characterization of genes and alleles controlling agronomic traits, and will serve as a source of markers for molecular breeding

Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia

Published online: 26 July 2015Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder house- holds, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize produc- tivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ ha during the same period. Ethiopia ’ s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of im- proved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia ’ s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricul- tural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agricultur

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe