Photographic search for comets during 12 November 1966 solar eclipse Final report

Photographic search for small bright comets during solar eclips

Beyond binary retention in HIV care: Predictors of the dynamic processes of patient engagement, disengagement, and re-entry into care in a US clinical cohort

Objectives: Studies examining engagement in HIV care often capture cross-sectional patient status to estimate retention and identify predictors of attrition, which ignore longitudinal patient care-seeking behaviors. We describe the cyclical nature of (dis)engagement and re-entry into HIV care using the state transition framework. Design: We represent the dynamic patterns of patient care-retention using five states: engaged in care, missed one, two, three, or more expected visits, and deceased. Then we describe various care-seeking behaviors in terms of transitioning from one state to another (e.g. from disengaged to engaged). This analysis includes 31 009 patients enrolled in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Systems (CNICS) in the United States from 1996 to 2014. Method: Multistate models for longitudinal data were used to identify barriers to retention and subgroups at higher risk of falling out of care. Results: The initial 2 years following primary engagement in care were a crucial time for improving retention. Patients who had not initiated antiretroviral therapy, with lower CD4+ cell counts, higher viral load, or not having an AIDS-defining illness were less likely to be retained in care. Conclusion: Beyond the individual patient characteristics typically used to characterize retention in HIV care, we identified specific periods of time and points in the care continuum associated with elevated risk of transitioning out of care. Our findings can contribute to evidence-based recommendations to enhance long-term retention in CNICS. This approach can also be applied to other cohort data to identify retention strategies tailored to each population

Facility-Level Factors Influencing Retention of Patients in HIV Care in East Africa

Losses to follow-up (LTFU) remain an important programmatic challenge. While numerous patient-level factors have been associated with LTFU, less is known about facility-level factors. Data from the East African International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (EA-IeDEA) Consortium was used to identify facility-level factors associated with LTFU in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Patients were defined as LTFU if they had no visit within 12 months of the study endpoint for pre-ART patients or 6 months for patients on ART. Adjusting for patient factors, shared frailty proportional hazard models were used to identify the facility-level factors associated with LTFU for the pre- and post-ART periods. Data from 77,362 patients and 29 facilities were analyzed. Median age at enrolment was 36.0 years (Interquartile Range: 30.1, 43.1), 63.9% were women and 58.3% initiated ART. Rates (95% Confidence Interval) of LTFU were 25.1 (24.7-25.6) and 16.7 (16.3-17.2) per 100 person-years in the pre-ART and post-ART periods, respectively. Facility-level factors associated with increased LTFU included secondary-level care, HIV RNA PCR turnaround time >14 days, and no onsite availability of CD4 testing. Increased LTFU was also observed when no nutritional supplements were provided (pre-ART only), when TB patients were treated within the HIV program (pre-ART only), and when the facility was open ≤4 mornings per week (ART only). Our findings suggest that facility-based strategies such as point of care laboratory testing and separate clinic spaces for TB patients may improve retention

Light-absorbing carbon in Europe – Measurement and modelling, with a focus on residential wood combustion emissions

The atmospheric concentration of elemental carbon (EC) in Europe during the six-year period 2005–2010 has been simulated with the EMEP MSC-W model. The model bias compared to EC measurements was less than 20% for most of the examined sites. The model results suggest that fossil fuel combustion is the dominant source of EC in most of Europe but that there are important contributions also from residential wood burning during the cold seasons and, during certain episodes, also from open biomass burning (wildfires and agricultural fires). The modelled contributions from open biomass fires to ground level concentrations of EC were small at the sites included in the present study, <3% of the long-term average of EC in PM10. The modelling of this EC source is subject to many uncertainties, and it was likely underestimated for some episodes. EC measurements and modelled EC were also compared to optical measurements of black carbon (BC). The relationships between EC and BC (as given by mass absorption cross section, MAC, values) differed widely between the sites, and the correlation between observed EC and BC is sometimes poor, making it difficult to compare results using the two techniques and limiting the comparability of BC measurements to model EC results. A new bottom-up emission inventory for carbonaceous aerosol from residential wood combustion has been applied. For some countries the new inventory has substantially different EC emissions compared to earlier estimates. For northern Europe the most significant changes are much lower emissions in Norway and higher emissions in neighbouring Sweden and Finland. For Norway and Sweden, comparisons to source-apportionment data from winter campaigns indicate that the new inventory may improve model-calculated EC from wood burning. Finally, three different model setups were tested with variable atmospheric lifetimes of EC in order to evaluate the model sensitivity to the assumptions regarding hygroscopicity and atmospheric ageing of EC. The standard ageing scheme leads to a rapid transformation of the emitted hydrophobic EC to hygroscopic particles, and generates similar results when assuming that all EC is aged at the point of emission. Assuming hydrophobic emissions and no ageing leads to higher EC concentrations. For the more remote sites, the observed EC concentration was in between the modelled EC using standard ageing and the scenario treating EC as hydrophobic. This could indicate too-rapid EC ageing in the model in relatively clean parts of the atmosphere

A European aerosol phenomenology -4: Harmonized concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol at 10 regional background sites across Europe

Although particulate organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) are important constituents of the suspended atmospheric particulate matter (PM), measurements of OC and EC are much less common and more uncertain than measurements of e.g. the ionic components of PM. In the framework of atmospheric research infrastructures supported by the European Union, actions have been undertaken to determine and mitigate sampling artefacts, and assess the comparability of OC and EC data obtained in a network of 10 atmospheric observatories across Europe. Positive sampling artefacts (from 0.4 to 2.8 μg C/m3) and analytical discrepancies (between −50% and +40% for the EC/TC ratio) have been taken into account to generate a robust data set, from which we established the phenomenology of carbonaceous aerosols at regional background sites in Europe. Across the network, TC and EC annual average concentrations range from 0.4 to 9 μg C/m3, and from 0.1 to 2 μg C/m3, respectively. TC/PM10 annual mean ratios range from 0.11 at a Mediterranean site to 0.34 at the most polluted continental site, and TC/PM2.5 ratios are slightly greater at all sites (0.15–0.42). EC/TC annual mean ratios range from 0.10 to 0.22, and do not depend much on PM concentration levels, especially in winter. Seasonal variations in PM and TC concentrations, and in TC/PM and EC/TC ratios, differ across the network, which can be explained by seasonal changes in PM source contributions at some sites

A European aerosol phenomenology-4 : Harmonized concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol at 10 regional background sites across Europe

Although particulate organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) are important constituents of the suspended atmospheric particulate matter (PM), measurements of OC and EC are much less common and More uncertain than measurements of e.g. the ionic components of PM. In the framework of atmospheric research infrastructures supported by the European Union, actions have been undertaken to determine and mitigate sampling artefacts, and assess the comparability of OC and EC data obtained in a network of 10 atmospheric observatories across Europe. Positive sampling artefacts (from 0:4 to 2.8 mu g C/m(3)) and analytical discrepancies (between -50% and +40% for the EC/TC ratio) have been taken into account to generate a robust data set, from which we established the phenomenology of carbonaceous aerosols at regional background sites in Europe. Across the network, TC and EC annual average concentrations range from 0.4 to 9 mu g C/m(3), and from 0.1 to 2 mu g C/m(3), respectively. TC/PM10 annual mean ratios range from 0.11 at a Mediterranean site to 0.34 at the most polluted continental site, and TC/PM2.5 ratios are slightly greater at all sites (0.15-0.42). EC/TC annual mean ratios range from 0.10 to 0.22, and do not depend much on PM concentration levels, especially in winter. Seasonal variations in PM and TC concentrations, and in TC/PM and EC/TC ratios, differ across the network, which can be explained by seasonal changes in PM source contributions at some sites. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Regional Financial Integration in East Asia against the Backdrop of Recent European Experiences

This article discusses recent trends in regional financial integration in East Asia and current efforts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries to foster regional financial integration against the backdrop of three decades of experience with financial integration in Europe. It reviews the two major crisis episodes of the recent European financial history to illustrate the risks associated with comprehensive capital account liberalisation and financial integration without commensurate supervisory structures. The article highlights the importance of targeted macroprudential policies and the development of an adequate region-wide regulatory and supervisory framework to reduce the risks associated with regional – and hence international – financial integration

Predictors of linkage to care following community-based HIV counseling and testing in rural Kenya

Despite innovations in HIV counseling and testing (HCT), important gaps remain in understanding linkage to care. We followed a cohort diagnosed with HIV through a community-based HCT campaign that trained persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) as navigators. Individual, interpersonal, and institutional predictors of linkage were assessed using survival analysis of self-reported time to enrollment. Of 483 persons consenting to follow-up, 305 (63.2%) enrolled in HIV care within 3 months. Proportions linking to care were similar across sexes, barring a sub-sample of men aged 18–25 years who were highly unlikely to enroll. Men were more likely to enroll if they had disclosed to their spouse, and women if they had disclosed to family. Women who anticipated violence or relationship breakup were less likely to link to care. Enrolment rates were significantly higher among participants receiving a PLHA visit, suggesting that a navigator approach may improve linkage from community-based HCT campaigns.Vestergaard Frandse

Capital Account Policies, IMF Programs and Growth in Developing Regions

This paper develops an adaptive learning model under uncertainty that examines evolution of capital account polices over time and across developing regions. In the framework, countries' past experiences and IMF programs influence policymakers' beliefs about the impact of capital account liberalization on growth, under the 'Mundell's trilemma constraint. The model, calibrated to data for Africa, Latin America and developing Asia, reflects relatively well capital account policies adopted in 1980-2010. It shows that even more developed countries with liberalized capital accounts may revert to controls under large output shocks. The outcomes of capital account switches are better and closer to policymakers' expectations in countries with the IMF programs, underscoring the role of complementarity of policies

A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia: It has Been There but We did not Look for It

Pegging in a coordinated way to a regional basket currency is considered by many as optimal for east-Asian countries. By contrast, according to existing empirical studies, these countries have most often relied on noncooperative United States dollar or G3 pegs. We show for the first time that by the late 1990s, with some reversals, a majority of east-Asian countries had already moved, de facto, away from the dollar peg and started targeting a basket, including east-Asian currencies (an Asian Currency Unit). Common-shock or market-based interpretations of such moves are ruled out since we document that, with few exceptions, countries in the region have in reality stuck to fixed exchange rates. We obtain such results using a Markov-switching estimation benchmarked against Bai-Perron structural break tests for the synthesis model of Frankel and Wei (2007), which augments the inference about currency weights in a basket with the weight on exchange-market pressure. In order to measure the latter, the forward positions of central banks in the foreign exchange market are taken into account