A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

Comportamentos agressivos em crianças e adolescentes com risco para esquizofrenia: diferenças entre gêneros

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate whether differences in aggression-related behavioral problems occur between boys and girls at high risk for schizophrenia living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. METHOD: Using the Child Behavior Checklist, we compared the prevalence of behavioral problems between genders for the offspring (6-18 years) of mothers with diagnosis of schizophrenia and a comparison group of children born to women with no severe mental disorders recruited at the gynecology outpatient clinic of the same hospital. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders, Patient Edition was applied for the evaluation of diagnostic status of mothers. RESULTS: Male children of women with schizophrenia had a lower prevalence of aggressive behavior compared to females (4% vs. 36%; p = 0.005), whereas no gender differences regarding aggression were detected in the comparison group (24% vs. 32%; p = 0.53). Logistic regression analyses showed that male gender and being a child of women with schizophrenia interacted so as to favor lower prevalence of aggressive behavior (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: These findings reinforce the notion that behavioral gender differences related to schizophrenia are already detectable in childhood.OBJETIVO: Investigar diferenças da ocorrência de comportamentos agressivos entre crianças e adolescentes do sexo masculino e feminino com risco genético para desenvolver esquizofrenia. MÉTODO: A prevalência de comportamentos agressivos foi medida utilizando o inventário de comportamentos para crianças e adolescentes, Child Behavior Checklist, e comparada entre os gêneros para o grupo de crianças filhas de mulheres com esquizofrenia e para um grupo de crianças filhas de mulheres atendidas no serviço de ginecologia do mesmo hospital. A entrevista clínica estruturada para DSM-IV (The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders Patient Edition) foi utilizada para confirmar o diagnóstico materno. RESULTADOS: Os filhos de mulheres com esquizofrenia do sexo masculino apresentaram prevalência menor de comportamentos agressivos quando comparados às meninas (4% x 36%; p = 0,005), o que não ocorreu para o grupo comparativo (24% x 32%; p = 0,53). A análise de regressão logística mostrou que pertencer ao sexo masculino e ser filho de mulher com esquizofrenia interagiram de forma a favorecer menor prevalência de comportamentos agressivos (p = 0,03). CONCLUSÃO: Esses achados corroboram para a noção que as diferenças comportamentais entre os gêneros na esquizofrenia podem ser detectadas precocemente durante a infância

Examining the role of genetic risk and longitudinal transmission processes underlying maternal parenting and psychopathology and children’s ADHD symptoms and aggression: utilizing the advantages of a prospective adoption design

Although genetic factors may contribute to initial liability for ADHD onset, there is growing evidence of the potential importance of the rearing environment on the developmental course of ADHD symptomatology. However, associations between family-level variables (maternal hostility, maternal depressive symptoms) and child behaviors (developmental course of ADHD and aggression) may be explained by genes that are shared by biologically related parents and children. Furthermore, ADHD symptoms and aggression commonly co-occur: it is important to consider both simultaneously to have a better understanding of processes underlying the developmental course of ADHD and aggression. To addresses these issues, we employed a longitudinal genetically sensitive parent–offspring adoption design. Analyses were conducted using Cohort I (n = 340) of the Early Growth and Development Study with cross-validation analyses conducted with Cohort II (n = 178). Adoptive mother hostility, but not depression, was associated with later child ADHD symptoms and aggression. Mothers and their adopted children were genetically unrelated, removing passive rGE as a possible explanation. Early child impulsivity/activation was associated with later ADHD symptoms and aggression. Child impulsivity/activation was also associated with maternal hostility, with some evidence for evocative gene-environment correlation processes on adoptive mother depressive symptoms. This study provides novel insights into family-based environmental influences on child ADHD and aggression symptoms, independent of shared parental genetic factors, implications of which are further explicated in the discussion