Release of Juniperus thurifera woodlands from herbivore-mediated arrested succession in Spain

Question: Do abiotic constraints maintain monospecific woodlands of Juniperus thurifera? What is the role of biotic (livestock) versus abiotic (climate) drivers in the recruitment and growth of the different tree species? Location: Cabrejas range, Soria, north-central Spain, 1200m altitude. Methods: Stand history was reconstructed using dendroecology and spatial pattern analysis, combined with historical data of livestock abundances and climatic records. Results: J. thurifera establishment occurred in two distinct pulses, with a tree component establishing in the late 1800s to early 1900s. Quercus ilex and Pinus sylvestris establishment was evident only from the late 1970s onward. Recruitment events were related to reductions in livestock browsing. J. thurifera spatial structure was clumped and Q. ilex showed a short-scale aggregation to J. thurifera trees and saplings. Radial growth trends of J. thurifera saplings, Q. ilex and P. sylvestris were negatively related to livestock density. Summer drought limited the radial growth of all the study species, and P. sylvestris and Q. ilex grew faster than J. thurifera even after considering an age effect. Conclusions: The differences in radial growth patterns and recruitment pulses between species indicate that livestock browsing and not abiotic factors is the main factor controlling plant succession and structural development. In this process, J. thurifera acts as a nurse plant, facilitating the establishment of other tree species. Under the current low pressure from herbivores, formerly pure J. thurifera woodlands will change towards dense stands of mixed species composition

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants

Evaluating thermal treeline indicators based on air and soil temperature using an air-to-soil temperature transfer model

In recent research, both soil (root-zone) and air temperature have been used as predictors for the treeline position worldwide. In this study, we intended to (a) test the proposed temperature limitation at the treeline, and (b) investigate effects of season length for both heat sum and mean temperature variables in the Swiss Alps. As soil temperature data are available for a limited number of sites only, we developed an air-to-soil transfer model (ASTRAMO). The air-to-soil transfer model predicts daily mean root-zone temperatures (10cm below the surface) at the treeline exclusively from daily mean air temperatures. The model using calibrated air and root-zone temperature measurements at nine treeline sites in the Swiss Alps incorporates time lags to account for the damping effect between air and soil temperatures as well as the temporal autocorrelations typical for such chronological data sets. Based on the measured and modeled root-zone temperatures we analyzed. the suitability of the thermal treeline indicators seasonal mean and degree-days to describe the Alpine treeline position. The root-zone indicators were then compared to the respective indicators based on measured air temperatures, with all indicators calculated for two different indicator period lengths. For both temperature types (root-zone and air) and both indicator periods, seasonal mean temperature was the indicator with the lowest variation across all treeline sites. The resulting indicator values were 7.0 degrees C +/- 0.4 SD (short indicator period), respectively 7.1 degrees C +/- 0.5 SD (long indicator period) for root-zone temperature, and 8.0 degrees C +/- 0.6 SD (short indicator period), respectively 8.8 degrees C +/- 0.8 SD (long indicator period) for air temperature. Generally, a higher variation was found for all air based treeline indicators when compared to the root-zone temperature indicators. Despite this, we showed that treeline indicators calculated from both air and root-zone temperatures can be used to describe the Alpine treeline position

Thermal niches are more conserved at cold than warm limits in arctic-alpine plant species

Aim Understanding the stability of realised niches is crucial for predicting the responses of species to climate change. One approach is to evaluate the niche differences of populations of the same species that occupy regions that are geographically disconnected. Here, we assess niche conservatism along thermal gradients for 26 plant species with a disjunct distribution between the Alps and the Arctic. Location European Alps and Norwegian Finnmark. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset of 26 arctic-alpine plant occurrences in two regions. We assessed niche conservatism through a multi-species comparison and analysed species rankings at cold and warm thermal limits along two distinct gradients corresponding to (1) air temperatures at 2 meters above ground level and (2) elevation distances to the treeline (TLD) for the two regions. We assessed whether observed relationships were close to those predicted under thermal limit conservatism. Results We found a weak similarity in species ranking at the warm thermal limits. The range of warm thermal limits for the 26 species was much larger in the Alps than in Finnmark. We found a stronger similarity in species ranking and correspondence at the cold thermal limit along the gradients of 2-m temperature and TLD. Yet, along the 2-m temperature gradient, the cold thermal limits of species in the Alps were lower on average than those in Finnmark. Main conclusion We found low conservatism of the warm thermal limits but a stronger conservatism of the cold thermal limits. We suggest that biotic interactions at the warm thermal limit likely modulate species responses more strongly than at the cold limit. The differing biotic context between the two regions is likely responsible for the observed differences in realised niches