Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts

Statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are tested and compared for downscaling seasonal precipitation forecasts over Spain from two DEMETER models: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO). The statistical method considered is a particular implementation of the standard analogue technique, based on close neighbours of the predicted atmospheric geopotential and humidity fields. Dynamical downscaling is performed using the Rossby Centre Climate Atmospheric model, which has been nested to the ECMWF model output, and run in climate mode for six months. We first check the performance of the direct output models in the period 1986–1997 and compare it with the results obtained applying the analogue method. We have found that the direct outputs underestimate the precipitation amount and that the statistical downscaling method improves the results as the skill of the direct forecast increases. The highest skills – relative operating characteristic skill areas (RSAs) above 0.6 – are associated with early and late spring, summer and autumn seasons at zero- and one-month lead times. On the other hand, models have poor skill during winter with the exception of the El Niño period (1986–1988), especially in the south of Spain. In this case, high RSAs and economic values have been found. We also compare statistical and dynamical downscaling during four seasons, obtaining no concluding result. Both methods outperform direct output from DEMETER models, but depending on the season and on the region of Spain one method is better than the other. Moreover, we have seen that dynamical and statistical methods can be used in combination, yielding the best skill scores in some cases of the study

Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area

Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain observations and standard verification measures have been used at different precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization.AEMET-SREPS project is partly supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science under research project CGL2008-01271 (MEDICANES)

Effectiveness of an intervention for improving drug prescription in primary care patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy:Study protocol of a cluster randomized clinical trial (Multi-PAP project)

This study was funded by the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias ISCIII (Grant Numbers PI15/00276, PI15/00572, PI15/00996), REDISSEC (Project Numbers RD12/0001/0012, RD16/0001/0005), and the European Regional Development Fund ("A way to build Europe").Background: Multimorbidity is associated with negative effects both on people's health and on healthcare systems. A key problem linked to multimorbidity is polypharmacy, which in turn is associated with increased risk of partly preventable adverse effects, including mortality. The Ariadne principles describe a model of care based on a thorough assessment of diseases, treatments (and potential interactions), clinical status, context and preferences of patients with multimorbidity, with the aim of prioritizing and sharing realistic treatment goals that guide an individualized management. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention that implements the Ariadne principles in a population of young-old patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. The intervention seeks to improve the appropriateness of prescribing in primary care (PC), as measured by the medication appropriateness index (MAI) score at 6 and 12months, as compared with usual care. Methods/Design: Design:pragmatic cluster randomized clinical trial. Unit of randomization: family physician (FP). Unit of analysis: patient. Scope: PC health centres in three autonomous communities: Aragon, Madrid, and Andalusia (Spain). Population: patients aged 65-74years with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic diseases) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs prescribed in ≥3months). Sample size: n=400 (200 per study arm). Intervention: complex intervention based on the implementation of the Ariadne principles with two components: (1) FP training and (2) FP-patient interview. Outcomes: MAI score, health services use, quality of life (Euroqol 5D-5L), pharmacotherapy and adherence to treatment (Morisky-Green, Haynes-Sackett), and clinical and socio-demographic variables. Statistical analysis: primary outcome is the difference in MAI score between T0 and T1 and corresponding 95% confidence interval. Adjustment for confounding factors will be performed by multilevel analysis. All analyses will be carried out in accordance with the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: It is essential to provide evidence concerning interventions on PC patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity, conducted in the context of routine clinical practice, and involving young-old patients with significant potential for preventing negative health outcomes. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02866799Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

4to. Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad. Memoria académica

Este volumen acoge la memoria académica de la Cuarta edición del Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad, CITIS 2017, desarrollado entre el 29 de noviembre y el 1 de diciembre de 2017 y organizado por la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana (UPS) en su sede de Guayaquil. El Congreso ofreció un espacio para la presentación, difusión e intercambio de importantes investigaciones nacionales e internacionales ante la comunidad universitaria que se dio cita en el encuentro. El uso de herramientas tecnológicas para la gestión de los trabajos de investigación como la plataforma Open Conference Systems y la web de presentación del Congreso http://citis.blog.ups.edu.ec/, hicieron de CITIS 2017 un verdadero referente entre los congresos que se desarrollaron en el país. La preocupación de nuestra Universidad, de presentar espacios que ayuden a generar nuevos y mejores cambios en la dimensión humana y social de nuestro entorno, hace que se persiga en cada edición del evento la presentación de trabajos con calidad creciente en cuanto a su producción científica. Quienes estuvimos al frente de la organización, dejamos plasmado en estas memorias académicas el intenso y prolífico trabajo de los días de realización del Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad al alcance de todos y todas

Statistical Postprocessing of Different Variables for Airports in Spain Using Machine Learning

The results of a deterministic calibration for the nonhydrostatic convection-permitting LAM-EPS AEMET-γSREPS are shown. LAM-EPS AEMET-γSREPS is a multiboundary condition, multimodel ensemble forecast system developed for Spain. Machine learning tools are used to calibrate the members of the ensemble. Machine learning (hereafter ML) has been considerably successful in many problems, and recent research suggests that meteorology and climatology are not an exception. These machine learning tools range from classical statistical methods to contemporary successful and powerful methods such as kernels and neural networks. The calibration has been done for airports located in many regions of Spain, representing different climatic conditions. The variables to be calibrated are the 2-meter temperature, the 10-meter wind speed, and the precipitation in 24 hours. Classical statistical methods perform very well with the temperature and the wind speed; the precipitation is a subtler case: it seems there is not a general rule, and for each point, a decision has to be taken of what method (if any) improves the direct output of the model, but even recognizing this, a slight improvement can be shown with ML methods for the precipitation

Generación multilingüe de boletines meteorológicos

En este artículo presentamos el software de generación de boletines meteorológicos MultiMeteo, que fue realizado en el marco del proyecto europeo del mismo nombre cuyos miembros usuarios son Météo-France, Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (España), Institut Royal Météorologique (Bélgica) y Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Austria). Su objetivo es generar boletines en varias lenguas (inglés, francés, español, alemán y neerlandés) y varios estilos a partir de los diferentes formatos de datos de los institutos europeos. MultiMeteo utiliza AlethGen como motor de generación. Después de una panorámica de la arquitectura general, nos concentramos en la generación multilingüe.In this article we present the "MultiMeteo" software, used to generate weather forecasts. It was developed in the context of the European project of the same name for Météo-France, Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (Spain), Institut Royal Météorologique (Belgium) and Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Austria). Its aim is to generate forecasts in several languages (English, French, Spanish, German and Dutch) and in several styles from data provided by these Met offices in various formats. The generation engine used by MultiMeteo is AlethGen. After briefly introducing the overall architecture, we describe in greater detail the multilingual generation process

II Congreso internacional en educación física, recreación, deporte y actividad física. “Innovación y tendencias” - Memorias

El II Congreso Internacional de Educación Física, Recreación, Deporte y Actividad Física: “Innovación y Tendencias“ y el II Encuentro de Egresados del Departamento de Cultura Física de la Universidad de Córdoba se realizó en la ciudad de Montería, capital del Departamento de Córdoba, Colombia, como iniciativa del Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Actividad Fisica y la Salud –GICAFS- del Departamento de Cultura Física, perteneciente a la Facultad de Educación y Ciencias Humanas de la Universidad de Córdoba, como muestra hacia la comunidad académica y la sociedad en general de la responsabilidad ética, social y profesional, para aportar a la construcción de tejido social, atendiendo a las recomendaciones del plan decenal del deporte, la Educación Física, la Recreación y la Actividad Física 2009-2019 (COLDEPORTES, 2009).Edición 201

Effects of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery: an international prospective cohort study an international prospective cohort study

We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care. We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care