Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

International audienceTemporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February–May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.Peer reviewe

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations

Efficient use of demographic data: integrated population models

Various types of demographic data can be collected in the field: population censuses, capture–mark–recapture data, and so on. These data sources share common demographic information about the studied population. Bayesian integrated population models (IPM) make efficient use of these different types of demographic data by jointly analysing them. This chapter discusses the advantages and the possibilities offered by this integrated approach. It describes the different steps required to build an IPM and illustrates the usefulness of this approach using two case studies. The first case study is a short-lived bird species, the blue tit, taking advantage of different data sources collected in a Dutch population to highlight how an integrated analysis might help to obtain a comprehensive picture of its dynamics. This IPM also assesses whether and how beech crop size might influence vital rates. The second case study is an invasive plant species, the common ragweed. The chapter illustrates how seedling data, plant data, and seed bank data could be analysed simultaneously to estimate key vital rates such as the probability that a seedling survives up to flowering.Plant science

Fluctuating food resources influence developmental plasticity in wild boar

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Density dependence in an age-structured population of great tits: identifying the critical age classes

Classical approaches for the analyses of density dependence assume that all the individuals in a population equally respond and equally contribute to density dependence. However, in age-structured populations, individuals of different ages may differ in their responses to changes in population size and how they contribute to density dependence affecting the growth rate of the whole population. Here, we apply the concept of critical age classes, i.e., a specific scalar function that describes how one or a combination of several age classes affect the demographic rates negatively, in order to examine how total density dependence acting on the population growth rate depends on the age-specific population sizes. In a 38-year dataset of an age-structured great tit (Parus major) population, we find that the age classes including the youngest breeding females were the critical age classes for density regulation. These age classes correspond to new breeders that attempt to take a territory and that have the strongest competitive effect on other breeding females. They strongly affected population growth rate and reduced recruitment and survival rates of all breeding females. We also show that depending on their age class, females may differently respond to varying density. In particular, the negative effect of the number of breeding females was stronger on recruitment rate of the youngest breeding females. These findings question the classical assumptions that all the individuals of a population can be treated as having an equal contribution to density regulation and that the effect of the number of individuals is age independent. Our results improve our understanding of density regulation in natural populations

Early-late life trade-offs and the evolution of ageing in the wild

Empirical evidence for declines in fitness components (survival and reproductive performance) with age has recently accumulated in wild populations, highlighting that the process of senescence is nearly ubiquitous in the living world. Senescence patterns are highly variable among species and current evolutionary theories of ageing propose that such variation can be accounted for by differences in allocation to growth and reproduction during early life. Here, we compiled 26 studies of free-ranging vertebrate populations that explicitly tested for a trade-off between performance in early and late life. Our review brings overall support for the presence of early-late life trade-offs, suggesting that the limitation of available resources leads individuals to trade somatic maintenance later in life for high allocation to reproduction early in life. We discuss our results in the light of two closely related theories of ageing—the disposable soma and the antagonistic pleiotropy theories—and propose that the principle of energy allocation roots the ageing process in the evolution of life-history strategies. Finally, we outline research topics that should be investigated in future studies, including the importance of natal environmental conditions in the study of trade-offs between early- and late-life performance and the evolution of sex-differences in ageing patterns