Essays in empirical microeconomics

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2008.Includes bibliographical references.This thesis consists of three essays addressing open empirical questions in applied microeconomics. Chapter 1 attempts to quantify the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. I use historical data on past yearly weather fluctuations and crop yields to measure the effect of these weather fluctuations on output, then use climate change prediction models to derive projections of the impact of future climate change on future productivity. I find that even moderate climate change could be seriously detrimental to productivity, with a consensus prediction for warming over the period 2010-2039 reducing productivity 4.5 to 9 percent. Chapter 2 provides a new tool for analysis of distributional, or quantile, effects in regression discontinuity (RD) models. RD has become increasingly popular over the last decade as a method of obtaining quasi experimental estimates of mean treatment effects. This paper extends the methodology to the measurement of quantile treatment effects. I provide simulation evidence on the effectiveness of the estimator and an empirical application to returns to compulsory schooling in the United Kingdom. Chapter 3, written jointly with Esther Duflo and Michael Greenstone, examines the impact of a water and sanitation intervention in Orissa, India, on health outcomes, in particular the monthly incidence of severe cases of diarrhea and malaria. The design of the intervention, in particular the fact that the water system is activated suddenly, unpredictably and simultaneously for all households in a given village, allow us to overcome several empirical challenges that have impeded credible estimation in the past. We find large effects: the arrival of services appears to reduce severe cases of diarrhea by as much as forty percent, with similar effects on severe cases of malaria. Furthermore, these effects appear to be persistent, as they continue to be apparent in the data after three and even five years.by Raymond P. Guiteras.Ph.D

Restenosis and its determinants in first and repeat coronary angioplasty

Restenosis is the main problem limiting long-term success of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and is most accurately evaluated by follow-up angiography. We compared the primary and long-term results of angioplasty in 268 consecutive patients (293 segments) with first PTCA (PTCA 1, angiographic follow-up 98%) and in 66 patients (76 segments) with repeat PTCA after restenosis (PTCA 2, angiographic follow-up 92%). Forty clinical, angiographic and procedural factors were assessed in relation to outcome. Primary success rate was higher in PTCA 2 (91% vs 67.5%) and major complications were fewer (4.5% vs 16%).Higher inflation pressure (7.9 ± 2.3 vs 6.8 ± 1.8 atm, P70%) after PTCA 1 and after PTC A 2 (27% vs 36%, P = NS) and the mean time to recurrence (4.7 vs 5.3 months, P = NS) were similar. Procedural factors were the main determinants of long-term success in primary PTCA. The restenosis risk was independently related to residual stenosis >45% (P<0.001), variant angina (P<0.05) and multivessel disease (P<0.05) after PTCA 1 and to male sex (P<0.001) and higher inflation pressure (P<0.05) after PTCA 2. Mild to moderate intimal tearing was associated with less restenosis after PTC A 1, but not after PTCA 2. Including 9 patients (10 segments) with a third PTCA, 70% of the 66 patients with repeat PTCA had a successful long-term outcome. Repeat angioplasty should therefore be considered as an integral part of PTCA therapy. Restenosis however remains a major concern. An optimal primary result with a minimal residual stenosis is decisive for first PTCA, whereas avoidance of a dissection by using lower inflation pressure on a restenosis might improve the long-term outcome of repeat PTC

Comparison of the information provided by electronic health records data and a population health survey to estimate prevalence of selected health conditions and multimorbidity

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Background Health surveys (HS) are a well-established methodology for measuring the health status of a population. The relative merit of using information based on HS versus electronic health records (EHR) to measure multimorbidity has not been established. Our study had two objectives: 1) to measure and compare the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity in HS and EHR data, and 2) to test specific hypotheses about potential differences between HS and EHR reporting of diseases with a symptoms-based diagnosis and those requiring diagnostic testing. Methods Cross-sectional study using data from a periodic HS conducted by the Catalan government and from EHR covering 80% of the Catalan population aged 15 years and older. We determined the prevalence of 27 selected health conditions in both data sources, calculated the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity (defined as the presence of ≥2 of the selected conditions), and determined multimorbidity patterns. We tested two hypotheses: a) health conditions requiring diagnostic tests for their diagnosis and management would be more prevalent in the EHR; and b) symptoms-based health problems would be more prevalent in the HS data. Results We analysed 15,926 HS interviews and 1,597,258 EHRs. The profile of the EHR sample was 52% women, average age 47 years (standard deviation: 18.8), and 68% having at least one of the selected health conditions, the 3 most prevalent being hypertension (20%), depression or anxiety (16%) and mental disorders (15%). Multimorbidity was higher in HS than in EHR data (60% vs. 43%, respectively, for ages 15-75+, P <0.001, and 91% vs. 83% in participants aged ≥65 years, P <0.001). The most prevalent multimorbidity cluster was cardiovascular. Circulation disorders (other than varicose veins), chronic allergies, neck pain, haemorrhoids, migraine or frequent headaches and chronic constipation were more prevalent in the HS. Most symptomatic conditions (71%) had a higher prevalence in the HS, while less than a third of conditions requiring diagnostic tests were more prevalent in EHR. Conclusions Prevalence of multimorbidity varies depending on age and the source of information. The prevalence of self-reported multimorbidity was significantly higher in HS data among younger patients; prevalence was similar in both data sources for elderly patients. Self-report appears to be more sensitive to identifying symptoms-based conditions. A comprehensive approach to the study of multimorbidity should take into account the patient perspective.Ministry of Science and Innovation through the Instituto Carlos IIIISCiii-RETICSInstitut Universitari d’Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol (IDIAP Jordi Gol

Potentially inappropriate medication in older participants of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) - Sex differences and associations with morbidity and medication use

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity in advanced age and the need for drug treatment may lead to polypharmacy, while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic changes may increase the risk of adverse drug events (ADEs). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of subjects using potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in a cohort of older and predominantly healthy adults in relation to polypharmacy and morbidity. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were available from 1,382 study participants (median age 69 years, IQR 67-71, 51.3% females) of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II). PIM was classified according to the EU(7)-PIM and German PRISCUS (representing a subset of the former) list. Polypharmacy was defined as the concomitant use of at least five drugs. A morbidity index (MI) largely based on the Charlson Index was applied to evaluate the morbidity burden. RESULTS: Overall, 24.1% of the participants were affected by polypharmacy. On average, men used 2 (IQR 1-4) and women 3 drugs (IQR 1-5). According to PRISCUS and EU(7)-PIM, 5.9% and 22.6% of participants received at least one PIM, while use was significantly more prevalent in females (25.5%) compared to males (19.6%) considering EU(7)-PIM (p = 0.01). In addition, morbidity in males receiving PIM according to EU(7)-PIM was higher (median MI 1, IQR 1-3) compared to males without PIM use (median MI 1, IQR 0-2, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: PIM use occurred more frequently in women than in men, while it was associated with higher morbidity in males. As expected, EU(7)-PIM identifies more subjects as PIM users than the PRISCUS list but further studies are needed to investigate the differential impact of both lists on ADEs and outcome. KEY POINTS: We found PIM use to be associated with a higher number of regular medications and with increased morbidity. Additionally, we detected a higher prevalence of PIM use in females compared to males, suggesting that women and people needing intensive drug treatment are patient groups, who are particularly affected by PIM use

Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change

The links between climate change, economic growth and economic development have gained increasing attention over recent years in both the academic and policy literature. However, most of the existing literature has tended to focus on direct, short run effects of climate change on the economy, for example due to extreme weather events and changes in agricultural growing conditions. In this paper we review potential effects of climate change on the prospects for long-run economic development. These effects might operate directly, via the role of geography (including climate) as a fundamental determinant of relative prosperity, or indirectly by modifying the environmental context in which political and economic institutions evolve. We consider potential mechanisms from climate change to long-run economic development that have been relatively neglected to date, including, for instance, effects on the distribution of income and political power. We conclude with some suggestions for areas of future research

The implications of three major new trials for the effect of water, sanitation and hygiene on childhood diarrhea and stunting: a consensus statement

BACKGROUND: Three large new trials of unprecedented scale and cost, which included novel factorial designs, have found no effect of basic water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions on childhood stunting, and only mixed effects on childhood diarrhea. Arriving at the inception of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and the bold new target of safely managed water, sanitation and hygiene for all by 2030, these results warrant the attention of researchers, policy-makers and practitioners. MAIN BODY: Here we report the conclusions of an expert meeting convened by the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to discuss these findings, and present five key consensus messages as a basis for wider discussion and debate in the WASH and nutrition sectors. We judge these trials to have high internal validity, constituting good evidence that these specific interventions had no effect on childhood linear growth, and mixed effects on childhood diarrhea. These results suggest that, in settings such as these, more comprehensive or ambitious WASH interventions may be needed to achieve a major impact on child health. CONCLUSION: These results are important because such basic interventions are often deployed in low-income rural settings with the expectation of improving child health, although this is rarely the sole justification. Our view is that these three new trials do not show that WASH in general cannot influence child linear growth, but they do demonstrate that these specific interventions had no influence in settings where stunting remains an important public health challenge. We support a call for transformative WASH, in so much as it encapsulates the guiding principle that - in any context - a comprehensive package of WASH interventions is needed that is tailored to address the local exposure landscape and enteric disease burden

One-Off Subsidies and Long-Run Adoption Experimental Evidence on Improved Cooking Stoves in Senegal

Free technology distribution can be an effective development policy instrument if adoption is socially inefficient and hampered by affordability constraints. Yet, policy makers often oppose free distribution, arguing that reference dependence spoils the willingness to pay and thus market potentials in the long run. For improved cookstoves, this paper studies the willingness to pay six years after a randomized one-time free distribution. Using a real-purchase offer procedure, we find that households who received a free stove in the past do not reveal a lower willingness to pay to repurchase the stove. Furthermore, we provide exploratory evidence that learning and reference-dependence effects do not spill over from the treatment to the control group. The policy implication is that one-time free distribution does not disturb future market establishment and might even facilitate it.JEL Codes: D03, D12, O12, O13, Q4