Reduced sensitivity for visual textures affects judgments of shape-from-shading and step climbing behaviour in older adults

Falls on stairs are a major hazard for older adults. Visual decline in normal aging can affect step climbing ability, altering gait and reducing toe clearance. Here we show that a loss of fine-grained visual information associated with age can affect the perception of surface undulations in patterned surfaces. We go on to show that such cues affect the limb trajectories of young adults, but due to their lack of sensitivity, not that of older adults. Interestingly neither the perceived height of a step nor conscious awareness are altered by our visual manipulation but stepping behaviour is: suggesting that the influence of shape perception on stepping behaviour is via the unconscious, action-centred, dorsal visual pathway

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

What do contrast threshold equivalent noise studies actually measure? Noise vs. nonlinearity in different masking paradigms

The internal noise present in a linear system can be quantified by the equivalent noise method. By measuring the effect that applying external noise to the system’s input has on its output one can estimate the variance of this internal noise. By applying this simple “linear amplifier” model to the human visual system, one can entirely explain an observer’s detection performance by a combination of the internal noise variance and their efficiency relative to an ideal observer. Studies using this method rely on two crucial factors: firstly that the external noise in their stimuli behaves like the visual system’s internal noise in the dimension of interest, and secondly that the assumptions underlying their model are correct (e.g. linearity). Here we explore the effects of these two factors while applying the equivalent noise method to investigate the contrast sensitivity function (CSF). We compare the results at 0.5 and 6 c/deg from the equivalent noise method against those we would expect based on pedestal masking data collected from the same observers. We find that the loss of sensitivity with increasing spatial frequency results from changes in the saturation constant of the gain control nonlinearity, and that this only masquerades as a change in internal noise under the equivalent noise method. Part of the effect we find can be attributed to the optical transfer function of the eye. The remainder can be explained by either changes in effective input gain, divisive suppression, or a combination of the two. Given these effects the efficiency of our observers approaches the ideal level. We show the importance of considering these factors in equivalent noise studies

Effects of fluoxetine on functional outcomes after acute stroke (FOCUS): a pragmatic, double-blind, randomised, controlled trial

Background Results of small trials indicate that fluoxetine might improve functional outcomes after stroke. The FOCUS trial aimed to provide a precise estimate of these effects. Methods FOCUS was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 103 hospitals in the UK. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had a clinical stroke diagnosis, were enrolled and randomly assigned between 2 days and 15 days after onset, and had focal neurological deficits. Patients were randomly allocated fluoxetine 20 mg or matching placebo orally once daily for 6 months via a web-based system by use of a minimisation algorithm. The primary outcome was functional status, measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), at 6 months. Patients, carers, health-care staff, and the trial team were masked to treatment allocation. Functional status was assessed at 6 months and 12 months after randomisation. Patients were analysed according to their treatment allocation. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN83290762. Findings Between Sept 10, 2012, and March 31, 2017, 3127 patients were recruited. 1564 patients were allocated fluoxetine and 1563 allocated placebo. mRS data at 6 months were available for 1553 (99·3%) patients in each treatment group. The distribution across mRS categories at 6 months was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (common odds ratio adjusted for minimisation variables 0·951 [95% CI 0·839–1·079]; p=0·439). Patients allocated fluoxetine were less likely than those allocated placebo to develop new depression by 6 months (210 [13·43%] patients vs 269 [17·21%]; difference 3·78% [95% CI 1·26–6·30]; p=0·0033), but they had more bone fractures (45 [2·88%] vs 23 [1·47%]; difference 1·41% [95% CI 0·38–2·43]; p=0·0070). There were no significant differences in any other event at 6 or 12 months. Interpretation Fluoxetine 20 mg given daily for 6 months after acute stroke does not seem to improve functional outcomes. Although the treatment reduced the occurrence of depression, it increased the frequency of bone fractures. These results do not support the routine use of fluoxetine either for the prevention of post-stroke depression or to promote recovery of function. Funding UK Stroke Association and NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme

Presence of IL-17 in synovial fluid identifies a potential inflammatory osteoarthritic phenotype

Purpose Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common and heterogeneous arthritic disorder. Patients suffer pain and their joints are characterized by articular cartilage loss and osteophyte formation. Risk factors for OA include age and obesity with inflammation identified as a key mediator of disease pathogenesis. Interleukin-17A (IL-17) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that has been implicated in inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis. IL-17 can upregulate expression of inflammatory cytokines and adipocytokines. The aim of this study was to evaluate IL-17 levels in the synovial fluid of patients with end-stage knee and hip OA in relation to inflammation- and pain-related cytokines and adipocytokines in synovial fluid and serum, and clinical and radiographic disease parameters. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 152 patients undergoing total hip and knee arthroplasty for OA. IL-17, IL-6, leptin, adiponectin, visfatin, resistin, C-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 2 (CCL2), C-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 7 (CCL7) and nerve growth factor (NGF) protein levels were measured in synovial fluid and serum using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Baseline characteristics included age, sex, body mass index, co-morbidities, pain and function, and radiographic analyses (OA features, K&amp;L; grade, minimal joint space width). Results 14 patients (9.2%) had detectable IL-17 in synovial fluid. These patients had significantly higher median concentrations of IL-6, leptin, resistin, CCL7 and NGF. Osteophytes, sclerosis and minimum joint space width were significantly reduced in patients with detectable IL- 17 in synovial fluid. No differences were found in pain, function and comorbidities. IL-17 concentrations in synovial fluid and serum were moderately correlated (r = 0.482). Conclusion The presence of IL-17 in the synovial fluid therefore identifies a substantial subset of primary end-stage OA patients with distinct biological and clinical features. Stratification of patients on the basis of IL-17 may identify those responsive to therapeutic targeting.</p

Coastal Scenery Assessment by Means of a Fuzzy Logic Approach

Landscape is a major element affecting people's life quality and coastal landscape evaluation is strongly rooted in the man-environment tradition. Coastal areas, all over the world, are under threat due to the conflicting requirements that rely on natural scenery of such as habitation, recreation, and industry. Since 'coastal scenery' is a natural resource, it has to be evaluated in an objective and quantitative way to provide a means of comparison against coastal activities and for environmental impact assessments. This chapter presents an evidence-based methodology called 'Coastal Scenic Evaluation System ( CSES)'. It is a technique that can be used not only for landscape preservation and protection, but also as scientific tool for envisaged coastal management and future development based upon plans formulated by an evidence-based approach. The results provide base-line information for a sound coastal management decision especially regarding intensive urban and industrial developments. CSES uses fuzzy logic to reduce subjectivity on decisions and obtain a quantitative evaluation of public survey research on 26 coastal scenic parameters having both physical and human perceptual characteristics. The weights of the scenic parameters were estimated by public survey questionnaires for Turkey, UK, Malta and Croatia and via consultations with coastal experts from the above mentioned four countries and Australia, Ireland, USA and Japan. Fuzzy logic mathematics was used to calculate a coastal scenic evaluation index ( D) from the checklist of 26 scenic parameters by using the attributed weights of the parameters which enabled to categorize scenic values of the coastal areas into five distinct classes