Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1.95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.87-2.04) and has since decreased to 0.95 million deaths (0.91-1.01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3.16 million, 2.79-3.67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1.94 million (1.63-2.29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36.8 million (34.8-39.2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65.7% in Lesotho to 85.7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Electrospun fibers for vaginal administration of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine in the context of topical pre-exposure prophylaxis

Women are particularly vulnerable to sexual HIV-1 transmission. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) is highly effective in avoiding new infections in men, but protection has only been shown to be moderate in women. Such differences have been associated, at least partially, to poor drug penetration of the lower female genital tract and the need for strict adherence to continuous daily oral intake of TDF/FTC. On-demand topical microbicide products could help circumvent these limitations. We developed electrospun fibers based on polycaprolactone (PCL fibers) or liposomes associated to poly(vinyl alcohol) (liposomes-in-PVA fibers) for the vaginal co-delivery of TDF and FTC, and assessed their pharmacokinetics in mice. PCL fibers and liposomes-in-PVA fibers were tested for morphological and physico chemical properties using scanning electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffrac tometry. Fibers featured organoleptic and mechanical properties compatible with their suitable handling and vaginal administration. Fluorescent quenching of mucin in vitro – used as a proxy for mucoadhesion – was intense for PCL fibers, but mild for liposomes-in-PVA fibers. Both fibers were shown safe in vitro and able to rapidly release drug content (15–30 min) under sink conditions. Liposomes-in-PVA fibers allowed increasing genital drug concentrations after a single intravaginal administration when compared to continuous daily treatment for five days with 25-times higher oral doses. For instance, the levels of tenofovir and FTC in vaginal lavage were around 4- and 29-fold higher, respectively. PCL fibers were also superior to oral treatment, although to a minor extent (approximately 2-fold higher drug concentrations in lavage). Vaginal tissue drug levels were generally low for all treatments, while systemic drug exposure was negligible in the case of fibers. These data suggest that proposed fibers may provide an interesting alternative or an ancillary option to oral PrEP in women.This work was financed by Programa Gilead GÉNESE (refs. PGG/ 046/2015) and Portuguese funds through FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior in the framework of the project “Institute for Research and Innovation in Health Sciences” UID/BIM/04293/2019. The work was also financed by FCT in the framework of the Strategic Funding UID/FIS/04650/2019 and in the ambit of the project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032651 and PTDC/NAN-MAT/326512017, co-financed by the FEDER, through COMPETE 2020, under PORTUGAL 2020, and FCT. Marlene Lúcio thanks FCT and ERDF for doctoral position Ref. CTTI-150/18-CF(1) in the ambit of the project CONCERT (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032651 and PTDC/NAN-MAT/326512017)

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background: Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings: Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1.95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.87-2.04) and has since decreased to 0.95 million deaths (0.91-1.01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3.16 million, 2.79-3.67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1.94 million (1.63-2.29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36.8 million (34.8-39.2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65.7% in Lesotho to 85.7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation: Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Impact of HIV infection on baseline characteristics and survival of women with breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

none14As women living with HIV (WLWH) become older, their risk of developing breast cancer increases. Nonetheless, literature is conflicting regarding tumor stage, distribution of subtypes and overall survival among WLWH vs HIV-negative women with breast cancer. We assessed differences in clinicopathological characteristics and overall survival between these two groups.mixedBrandão, Mariana; Bruzzone, Marco; Franzoi, Maria-Alice; de Angelis, Claudia; Eiger, Daniel; Caparica, Rafael; Piccart-Gebhart, Martine; Buisseret, Laurence; Ceppi, Marcello; Dauby, Nicolas; Carrilho, Carla; Lunet, Nuno; de Azambuja, Evandro; Lambertini, MatteoBrandão, Mariana; Bruzzone, Marco; Franzoi, Maria-Alice; de Angelis, Claudia; Eiger, Daniel; Caparica, Rafael; Piccart-Gebhart, Martine; Buisseret, Laurence; Ceppi, Marcello; Dauby, Nicolas; Carrilho, Carla; Lunet, Nuno; de Azambuja, Evandro; Lambertini, Matte