Partners Diversification and Exposure of African Countries to International Crises: the Case of Kenya

The objective of this paper is to characterize the exposure of Kenyan\u27s income to international income, monetary and price shocks. The results suggest that the partners’ diversification permits them to resist to international shocks. In fact, Chinese conjuncture tends to be less exposed to OECD countries\u27 income and inflation shocks. Also, income in this country more depends on domestic investment and household consumption, in comparison to the exposure to OECD country shocks. In this context, we observe that the exposure of Kenyan income to OECD shocks regresses when the dependence to Chinese conjuncture progresses

Modélisation prospective et spécificités de la politique énergétique française

Cet article, avant relecture et correction pour la revue J3EA, a fait l'objet d'une communication aux journées 2007 de la section électrotechnique sur le thème Energie et Développement Durable à l'antenne de Bretagne de l'ENS de Cachan les 14 et 15 mars 2007.International audienceLes stratèges qui se préoccupent des questions liées à l'Energie, doivent, dans un contexte international complexe, se doter d'outils normatifs performants pour faire face à des contraintes multiformes (quotas d'émissions, taxes, ouverture des marchés, raréfaction de la ressource). Dans cet article, nous montrerons comment une optimisation technico-économique de la chaîne énergétique, au moyen du modèle MARKAL-France, permet à l'horizon 2050, une approche prospective pertinente des conséquences environnementales de différentes options de la politique énergétique française. En particulier, l'impact environnemental de ces choix sera évalué à travers le niveau des émissions de CO2

Flexibility and reliability in long-term planning exercices dedicated to the electricity sector

Disponible sur le site du World Energy Council : http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/congresspapers/363.pdfInternational audienceLong-term planning models are useful to build plausible options for future energy systems and must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of exibility and reliability in power systems in order to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises: exibility needs are integrated as an additional criterion for new investment decisions and, reliability requirements are assessed through the level of electrical losses they induced and a related cost. These approaches are implemented in a long-term planning model and demonstrated through a study of the Reunion Island

Shift from oil fueled cars for future sustainable mobilities

http://www.aaee.at/2009-IAEE/details.phpInternational audienceOver a 50 years period (2000-2050), required demands for energy services including mobility- differentiated in short and long distance travels- have to be satisfied simultaneously with a strong constraint on CO2 emission levels i.e. a reduction by 50 to 75% of the emissions by 2050 compared to their 1990 level (except international transportation). The systemic approach used ensures consistency of the results across all end-use sectors. This methodology is used to propose a focus on personal vehicles in order to highlight the long term relationship between carbon constraints, technologies road map and cross sectors effects

Enjeux de moyen et long termes d'une transition vers une production d'électricité 100% renouvelable dans le cas de la France

National audienceEn 2014, la Commission Européenne, à travers son cadre d'action pour le climat et l'énergie [1], ainsi que la France, à travers sa loi sur la transition énergétique et la croissance verte [2], ont proposé des objectifs de pénétration des énergies renouvelable à 2030, en particulier pour le secteur électrique. Toutefois, certains moyens de production renouvelable, notamment l'éolien et le solaire photovoltaïque, dépendent de sources d'énergie fatale et variables ce qui les différentie des moyens de production conventionnels et induit des contraintes supplémentaires sur la gestion des systèmes électriques. En effet, consommation et production d'électricité doivent être rigoureusement égales à chaque instant, et si les opérateurs des systèmes électriques ont déjà l'habitude de gérer la variabilité de la demande et les aléas sur le parc de production, celle induite par les moyens de production renouvelable rend cette gestion encore plus difficile. L'expérience des pays voisins, dans lesquels la part du renouvelable variable dans la production d'électricité est désormais importante (12% en Italie en 2013 [3], 16% en Allemagne en 2014 [4], 16% en Irlande en 2013 [5], 25% au Portugal en 2013 [6], 26% en Espagne en 2014 [7], plus de 40% au Danemark en 2014 [8]), montre qu'il est possible d'envisager des systèmes électriques avec un niveau de pénétration du renouvelable atteignant 40%. Jusqu'à présent le renouvelable joue un rôle plus modeste dans le mix électrique français avec 4% de la production électrique totale en 2014 [9]. Toutefois, cette situation pourrait évoluer du fait, d'une part, des objectifs précédemment mentionnés et si, d'autre part, la place du nucléaire en France était remise en question. Dans cette étude nous évaluons une modification radicale du parc électrogène français en analysant les conséquences d'une transition vers un système électrique 100% renouvelable à l'horizon 2050, notamment les conséquences quant à la gestion d'un tel système électrique

Climate policy impacts on energy system: a long-term analysis with the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-FR)

Available on: http://www.iiis.org/CDs2011/CD2011SCI/EEEP_2011/PapersPdf/JA513YT.pdfThis paper analyzes technological options to mitigate CO2 emissions and reach the 2°C objective expressed to UNFCCC since COP15, through global and regional climate objectives. The first aim of this paper is evaluate the impact on global CO2 mitigation possibilities according to carbon constraints scenarios and the level of development of different regions An important result consists in the necessary participation of developing countries in the international climate policy. The second main aim of the study is to study the evolution of the energy system for developed and developing countries. While CCS technologies deployment appears as a necessary solution for fast developing countries (especially China), developing countries (and in a lower manner developed countries) need to invest in renewable energies. But in both cases, countries face economical aspects of their energy transition, such as costs, large scale deployment, traditional energy sector core activities and objectives

Regional impacts of the global carbon stakes: Long term prospective with the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM-FR)

http://ab3e.org.br/rio2010/conference-program/concurrent-sessions/june-09/International audienceThe aim of this study is to discuss the Copenhagen commitments, using the modelling tool TIAM-FR, and to propose some keys to understanding long-term climate policy. More precisely, we investigate different coordination schemes for regions that have pledged to reach CO2 mitigation targets during the period 2005-2050. Using regional carbon constraint scenarios, we show what these possible futures represent for different regions committed to the Copenhagen Agreement. Our analysis mainly focuses on the effects of these environmental constraints on several indicators such as, global and regional CO2 emissions, the cost of the climate policy, the carbon marginal costs, the progress of primary energy consumption and the energy mix. This paper compares global efforts on CO2 mitigation with the marginal cost of carbon for a variety of climate policies and focuses on the evolution of the energy mix. Lastly, it discusses the plausibility of developing CO2 storage technologies to satisfy the carbon constraints

Energy Efficiency And The "triple 20" European Policy: Lessons Drawn From The French Case

http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/proceedingssearch.aspx?conference=Istanbul%2031st%20IAEE%20International%20ConferenceInternational audienceThis paper questions the relevance of the announced energy efficiency target (i.e. translated as energy consumption savings) as leverage for the GHG mitigation in the French case. We explore the impact of both primary and final energy consumption savings, when combined with a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020. This is done through long-term planning exercises using Markal/Times modeling tool for France. The results show the impact of energy consumption savings on the future energy mix. This is discussed through the “French model” framework, where a unique energy policy has lead the country to rely on the highest nuclear power share worldwide

Investigating long-term lifestyles changes in France: a statistical and modelling approach

International audienceAs lifestyles relate to our ways of "doing" , "having" , "using" and "displaying" , our behaviour and all of the related products, objects and infrastructures (Røpke, 2009), they are both a broad and complex object of thought and a key determinant of the sustainability of our societies. Conducted in a qualitative way, the analysis of future lifestyles offers great freedom to imagine dramatic changes of societies and to explore paradigm shifts. These changes could result from the widespread of various existing behaviours considered today as weak signals or from the emergence of social movements of great magnitude. Performing a quantitative analysis is less straightforward and could be conceptually questioned. Yet for the specific problem of sustainable lifestyles a quantitative approach can help ground the scenarios not only on technical solutions but also on elements of lifestyles change. What is missing is a quantitative method to define the possible long term impact of lifestyle change on mobility, housing and consumption patterns. In this paper we introduce a statistical model that we developed especially to address long-term lifestyles changes and their consequences on the consumption of goods and services and on the energy services demand in France. We make use of national mobility housing and consumption surveys to identify significant patterns. We propose a model of their diffusion in the long term according while also taking into account the demographic changes. Our contribution is organised as follows: we first describe the statistical model and the surveys; then an application to future societal trends is proposed in a prospective approach. A set of lifestyles anticipated for France in 2050 that explore various changes are considered. Finally we aim to discuss the contributions and limitations of the proposed quantitative model and how it can fit into futures thinking