Understanding Uncertainty in School League Tables

In England, contextual value added (CVA) school performance tables are published annually by the government. These tables present statistical‐model‐based estimates of the educational effectiveness of schools, together with 95 per cent confidence intervals to communicate their statistical uncertainty. However, this information, particularly the notion of statistical uncertainty, is hard for users to understand. There is a real need to make school performance tables clearer. The media attempt to do this for the public by ranking schools in so‐called ‘school league tables’; however, they invariably discard the 95 per cent confidence intervals and, in doing so, encourage the public to over‐interpret differences in schools' ranks. In this paper, we explore a simulation method to produce simple graphical summaries of schools' ranks that clearly communicate their associated uncertainty

On the conceptualization and measurement of flow

This chapter introduces in chronological order the three main measurement methods – the Flow Questionnaire, the Experience Sampling Method, and the standardized scales of the componential approach – that researchers developed and used in conducting research on the flow state. Each measurement method and underlying conceptualization is explained, and its strengths and limitations are then discussed in relation to the other measurement methods and associated conceptualizations. The analysis reveals that, although the concept of flow remained stable since its inception, the models of flow that researchers developed in conjunction with the measurement methods changed substantially over time. Moreover, the findings obtained by applying the various measurement methods led to corroborations and disconfirmations of the underlying models, and hence provided indications on how to interpret and possibly modify flow theory. The chapter then analyzes the emerging process approach, which conceptualizes and measures flow as a dynamic path rather than an object, and highlights its potential for integrating flow and creativity within the same conceptual framework. The final section outlines new directions for developing more valid and useful measurement methods that can help to advance the understanding of flow, its antecedents, and its consequences

The dynamics of neural fields on bounded domains: an interface approach for Dirichlet boundary conditions

Continuum neural field equations model the large scale spatio-temporal dynamics of interacting neurons on a cortical surface. They have been extensively studied, both analytically and numerically, on bounded as well as unbounded domains. Neural field models do not require the specification of boundary conditions. Relatively little attention has been paid to the imposition of neural activity on the boundary, or to its role in inducing patterned states. Here we redress this imbalance by studying neural field models of Amari type (posed on one- and two-dimensional bounded domains) with Dirichlet boundary conditions. The Amari model has a Heaviside nonlinearity that allows for a description of localised solutions of the neural field with an interface dynamics. We show how to generalise this reduced but exact description by deriving a normal velocity rule for an interface that encapsulates boundary effects. The linear stability analysis of localised states in the interface dynamics is used to understand how spatially extended patterns may develop in the absence and presence of boundary conditions. Theoretical results for pattern formation are shown to be in excellent agreement with simulations of the full neural field model. Furthermore, a numerical scheme for the interface dynamics is introduced and used to probe the way in which a Dirichlet boundary condition can limit the growth of labyrinthine structures

Reliability of Quantitative Real-Time PCR for Bacterial Detection in Cystic Fibrosis Airway Specimens

The cystic fibrosis (CF) airway microbiome is complex; polymicrobial infections are common, and the presence of fastidious bacteria including anaerobes make culture-based diagnosis challenging. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) offers a culture-independent method for bacterial quantification that may improve diagnosis of CF airway infections; however, the reliability of qPCR applied to CF airway specimens is unknown. We sought to determine the reliability of nine specific bacterial qPCR assays (total bacteria, three typical CF pathogens, and five anaerobes) applied to CF airway specimens. Airway and salivary specimens from clinically stable pediatric CF subjects were collected. Quantitative PCR assay repeatability was determined using triplicate reactions. Split-sample measurements were performed to measure variability introduced by DNA extraction. Results from qPCR were compared to standard microbial culture for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Haemophilus influenzae, common pathogens in CF. We obtained 84 sputa, 47 oropharyngeal and 27 salivary specimens from 16 pediatric subjects with CF. Quantitative PCR detected bacterial DNA in over 97% of specimens. All qPCR assays were highly reproducible at quantities ≥102 rRNA gene copies/reaction with coefficient of variation less than 20% for over 99% of samples. There was also excellent agreement between samples processed in duplicate. Anaerobic bacteria were highly prevalent and were detected in mean quantities similar to that of typical CF pathogens. Compared to a composite gold standard, qPCR and culture had variable sensitivities for detection of P. aeruginosa, S. aureus and H. influenzae from CF airway samples. By reliably quantifying fastidious airway bacteria, qPCR may improve our understanding of polymicrobial CF lung infections, progression of lung disease and ultimately improve antimicrobial treatments

Two NAD-linked redox shuttles maintain the peroxisomal redox balance in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, peroxisomes are the sole site of fatty acid β-oxidation. During this process, NAD(+) is reduced to NADH. When cells are grown on oleate medium, peroxisomal NADH is reoxidised to NAD(+) by malate dehydrogenase (Mdh3p) and reduction equivalents are transferred to the cytosol by the malate/oxaloacetate shuttle. The ultimate step in lysine biosynthesis, the NAD(+)-dependent dehydrogenation of saccharopine to lysine, is another NAD(+)-dependent reaction performed inside peroxisomes. We have found that in glucose grown cells, both the malate/oxaloacetate shuttle and a glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase 1(Gpd1p)-dependent shuttle are able to maintain the intraperoxisomal redox balance. Single mutants in MDH3 or GPD1 grow on lysine-deficient medium, but an mdh3/gpd1Δ double mutant accumulates saccharopine and displays lysine bradytrophy. Lysine biosynthesis is restored when saccharopine dehydrogenase is mislocalised to the cytosol in mdh3/gpd1Δ cells. We conclude that the availability of intraperoxisomal NAD(+) required for saccharopine dehydrogenase activity can be sustained by both shuttles. The extent to which each of these shuttles contributes to the intraperoxisomal redox balance may depend on the growth medium. We propose that the presence of multiple peroxisomal redox shuttles allows eukaryotic cells to maintain the peroxisomal redox status under different metabolic conditions

Microevolution of Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus Assessed by the Number of Repeat Units in Short Sequence Tandem Repeat Regions

The emergence of the pandemic strain Vibrio parahaemolyticus O3:K6 in 1996 caused a large increase of diarrhea outbreaks related to seafood consumption in Southeast Asia, and later worldwide. Isolates of this strain constitutes a clonal complex, and their effectual differentiation is possible by comparison of their variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs). The differentiation of the isolates by the differences in VNTRs will allow inferring the population dynamics and microevolution of this strain but this requires knowing the rate and mechanism of VNTRs' variation. Our study of mutants obtained after serial cultivation of clones showed that mutation rates of the six VNTRs examined are on the order of 10−4 mutant per generation and that difference increases by stepwise addition of single mutations. The single stepwise mutation (SSM) was deduced because mutants with 1, 2, 3, or more repeat unit deletions or insertions follow a geometric distribution. Plausible phylogenetic trees are obtained when, according to SSM, the genetic distance between clusters with different number of repeats is assessed by the absolute differences in repeats. Using this approach, mutants originated from different isolates of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus after serial cultivation are clustered with their parental isolates. Additionally, isolates of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus from Southeast Asia, Tokyo, and northern and southern Chile are clustered according their geographical origin. The deepest split in these four populations is observed between the Tokyo and southern Chile populations. We conclude that proper phylogenetic relations and successful tracing of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus requires measuring the differences between isolates by the absolute number of repeats in the VNTRs considered

Mechanisms of cerebellar tonsil herniation in patients with Chiari malformations as guide to clinical management

Background The pathogenesis of Chiari malformations is incompletely understood. We tested the hypothesis that different etiologies have different mechanisms of cerebellar tonsil herniation (CTH), as revealed by posterior cranial fossa (PCF) morphology. Methods In 741 patients with Chiari malformation type I (CM-I) and 11 patients with Chiari malformation type II (CM-II), the size of the occipital enchondrium and volume of the PCF (PCFV) were measured on reconstructed 2D-CT and MR images of the skull. Measurements were compared with those in 80 age- and sex-matched healthy control individuals, and the results were correlated with clinical findings. Results Significant reductions of PCF size and volume were present in 388 patients with classical CM-I, 11 patients with CM-II, and five patients with CM-I and craniosynostosis. Occipital bone size and PCFV were normal in 225 patients with CM-I and occipitoatlantoaxial joint instability, 55 patients with CM-I and tethered cord syndrome (TCS), 30 patients with CM-I and intracranial mass lesions, and 28 patients with CM-I and lumboperitoneal shunts. Ten patients had miscellaneous etiologies. The size and area of the foramen magnum were significantly smaller in patients with classical CM-I and CM-I occurring with craniosynostosis and significantly larger in patients with CM-II and CM-I occurring with TCS. Conclusions Important clues concerning the pathogenesis of CTH were provided by morphometric measurements of the PCF. When these assessments were correlated with etiological factors, the following causal mechanisms were suggested: (1) cranial constriction; (2) cranial settling; (3) spinal cord tethering; (4) intracranial hypertension; and (5) intraspinal hypotension

WT1 gene expression as a prognostic marker in advanced serous epithelial ovarian carcinoma: an immunohistochemical study

BACKGROUND: WT1 is a tumor suppressor gene responsible for Wilms' tumor. WT1 reactivity is limited to ovarian serous carcinomas. Recent studies have shown that WT1 plays an important role in the progression of disease and indicates a poorer prognosis of human malignancies such as acute myeloid leukemia and breast cancer. The aims of this study were to determine the survival and recurrence-free survival of women with advanced serous epithelial ovarian carcinoma in relation to WT1 gene expression. METHODS: The study accrued women over an 18-year period, from 1987–2004. During the study period, 163 patients were diagnosed with advanced serous epithelial ovarian carcinoma and had undergone complete post-operative chemotherapy, but the final study group comprised 99 patients. The records of these women were reviewed and the paraffin-embedded tissue of these women stained with WT1 immunostaining. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods. RESULTS: Fifty patients showed WT1 staining and forty-nine did not. Five-year survival of non-staining and staining groups were 39.4% and 10.7% (p < 0.00005); five-year recurrence-free survival of these groups were 29.8% and ≤ 7.5% (p < 0.00005), respectively. For survival the HR of WT1 staining, adjusted for residual tumor and chemotherapy response, was 1.98 (95% CI 1.28–3.79), and for recurrence-free survival the HR was 3.36 (95% CI 1.60–7.03). The HR for recurrence-free survival was not confounded by any other variables. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that expression of WT1 gene may be indicative of an unfavorable prognosis in patients with advanced serous epithelial ovarian carcinoma

Precision measurement of the top quark mass from dilepton events at CDF II

We report a measurement of the top quark mass, M_t, in the dilepton decay channel of $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu_{\ell'}\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$ using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb^{-1} of p\bar{p} collisions collected with the CDF II detector. We apply a method that convolutes a leading-order matrix element with detector resolution functions to form event-by-event likelihoods; we have enhanced the leading-order description to describe the effects of initial-state radiation. The joint likelihood is the product of the likelihoods from 78 candidate events in this sample, which yields a measurement of M_{t} = 164.5 \pm 3.9(\textrm{stat.}) \pm 3.9(\textrm{syst.}) \mathrm{GeV}/c^2, the most precise measurement of M_t in the dilepton channel.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, version includes changes made prior to publication by journa

Cross Section Measurements of High-pTp_T Dilepton Final-State Processes Using a Global Fitting Method

We present a new method for studying high-$p_T$ dilepton events ($e^{\pm}e^{\mp}$, $\mu^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$, $e^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$) and simultaneously extracting the production cross sections of $p\bar{p} \to t\bar{t}$, $p\bar{p} \to W^+W^-$, and p\bar{p} \to \ztt at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV. We perform a likelihood fit to the dilepton data in a parameter space defined by the missing transverse energy and the number of jets in the event. Our results, which use $360 {\rm pb^{-1}}$ of data recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, are $\sigma(t\bar{t}) = 8.5_{-2.2}^{+2.7}$ pb, $\sigma(W^+W^-) = 16.3^{+5.2}_{-4.4}$ pb, and \sigma(\ztt) =291^{+50}_{-46} pb.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, to be submitted to PRD-R