Inferring from an imprecise Plackett–Luce model : application to label ranking

Learning ranking models is a difficult task, in which data may be scarce and cautious predictions desirable. To address such issues, we explore the extension of the popular parametric probabilistic Plackett–Luce model, often used to model rankings, to the imprecise setting where estimated parameters are set-valued. In particular, we study how to achieve cautious or conservative inference with it, and illustrate their application on label ranking problems, a specific supervised learning task

Vertical zonation of testate amoebae in the Elatia Mires, northern Greece : palaeoecological evidence for a wetland response to recent climate change or autogenic processes?

The Elatia Mires of northern Greece are unique ecosystems of high conservation value. The mires are climatically marginal and may be sensitive to changing hydroclimate, while northern Greece has experienced a significant increase in aridity since the late twentieth century. To investigate the impact of recent climatic change on the hydrology of the mires, the palaeoecological record was investigated from three near-surface monoliths extracted from two sites. Testate amoebae were analysed as sensitive indicators of hydrology. Results were interpreted using transfer function models to provide quantitative reconstructions of changing water table depth and pH. AMS radiocarbon dates and 210Pb suggest the peats were deposited within the last c. 50 years, but do not allow a secure chronology to be established. Results from all three profiles show a distinct shift towards a more xerophilic community particularly noted by increases in Euglypha species. Transfer function results infer a distinct lowering of water tables in this period. A hydrological response to recent climate change is a tenable hypothesis to explain this change; however other possible explanations include selective test decay, vertical zonation of living amoebae, ombrotrophication and local hydrological change. It is suggested that a peatland response to climatic change is the most probable hypothesis, showing the sensitivity of marginal peatlands to recent climatic change

Impact of different food label formats on healthiness evaluation and food choice of consumers: a randomized-controlled study

Abstract Background Front of pack food labels or signpost labels are currently widely discussed as means to help consumers to make informed food choices. It is hoped that more informed food choices will result in an overall healthier diet. There is only limited evidence, as to which format of a food label is best understood by consumers, helps them best to differentiate between more or less healthy food and whether these changes in perceived healthiness result in changes of food choice. Methods In a randomised experimental study in Hamburg/Germany 420 adult subjects were exposed to one of five experimental conditions: (1) a simple "healthy choice" tick, (2) a multiple traffic light label, (3) a monochrome Guideline Daily Amount (GDA) label, (4) a coloured GDA label and (5) a "no label" condition. In the first task they had to identify the healthier food items in 28 pair-wise comparisons of foods from different food groups. In the second task they were asked to select food portions from a range of foods to compose a one-day's consumption. Differences between means were analysed using ANOVAs. Results Task I: Experimental conditions differed significantly in the number of correct decisions (p Conclusion Different food label formats differ in the understanding of consumers. The current study shows, that German adults profit most from the multiple traffic light labels. Perceived healthiness of foods is influenced by this label format most often. Nevertheless, such changes in perceived healthiness are unlikely to influence food choice and consumption. Attempts to establish the informed consumer with the hope that informed choices will be healthier choices are unlikely to change consumer behaviour and will not result in the desired contribution to the prevention of obesity and diet related diseases.</p

Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple, global energy- economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to mid-century. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary for driving widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient for bringing low-carbon vehicles to mass market, though it can certainly play a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonised energy supply

Association of physical exercise and calcium intake with bone mass measured by quantitative ultrasound

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interventions other than medications in the management of osteoporosis are often overlooked. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of physical activity and calcium intake with bone parameters.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We measured the heel T-score and stiffness index (SI) in 1890 pre- and postmenopausal women by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and assessed physical activity and dietary calcium intake by questionnaire. Participants were divided according to their weekly physical activity (sedentary, moderately active, systematically active) and daily calcium consumption (greater than or less than 800 mg/day).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SI values were significantly different among premenopausal groups (p = 0.016) and between sedentary and systematically active postmenopausal women (p = 0.039). QUS T-scores in systematically active premenopausal women with daily calcium intake > 800 mg/day were significantly higher than those in all other activity groups (p < 0.05) independent of calcium consumption.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Systematic physical activity and adequate dietary calcium intake are indicated for women as a means to maximize bone status benefits.</p

Certify or not? An analysis of organic food supply chain with competing suppliers

Customers expect companies to provide clear health-related information for the products they purchase in a big data environment. Organic food is data-enabled with the organic label, but the certification cost discourages small-scale suppliers from certifying their product. This lack of a label means that product that satisfies the organic standard is regarded as conventional product. By considering the trade-off between the profit gained from organic label and additional costs of certification, this paper investigates an organic food supply chain where a leading retailer procures from two suppliers with different brands. Customers care about both the brand-value and quality (more specifically, if food is organic or not) when purchasing the product. We explore the organic certification and wholesale pricing strategies for suppliers, and the supplier selection and retail pricing strategies for the retailer. We find that when two suppliers adopt asymmetric certification strategy, the retailer tends to procure the product with organic label. The supplier without a brand name can compensate with organic certification, which leads to more profits than the branded rival. As the risk of being abandoned by the retailer increases, the supplier without a brand name is more eager than the rival to obtain the organic label. If both suppliers certify the product, however, they will fall into a prisoner’s dilemma under situation with low health utility from organic label and high certification cost