Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target

A decade (1982 to 1992) of pediatric cardiac transplantation and the impact of FK 506 immunosuppression

The decade from 1982 through 1992 witnessed tremendous growth in pediatric cardiac transplantation. At Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh 66 cardiac transplants were performed during this period (age range 7 hours to 18 years). The cause of cardiomyopathy was congenital (n = 30), cardiomyopathy (n = 29), myocarditis (n = 2), doxorubicin toxicity (n = 2), ischemic (n = 1), valvular (n = 1), and cardiac angiosarcoma (n = 1). Nine children (14 %) required mechanical circulatory support before transplantation: extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (n = 8) and Novacor left ventricular assist system (n = 1) (Baxter Healthcare Corp., Novacor Div., Oakland, Calif.). The mean follow-up time was 2 years (range 4 months to 8 years). The overall survival in the group was 67 %. In children with congenital heart disease (>6 months of age) the perioperative (30 day) mortality was 66 % before mid-1988 (n = 10) and 0 % since mid-1988 (n = 11). The late mortality (>30 days) in children with cardiomyopathy transplanted prior to mid-1988 was 66 % (n = 14) and 7 % since mid-1988 (n = 15). Since mid-1988 1- and 3-year survival was 82 % in children with congenital heart disease and 90 % in children with cardiomyopathy. Twenty-six children have had FK 506 as their primary immunosuppressive therapy since November 1989. Survival in this group was 82 % at 1 and 3 years. The actuarial freedom from grade 3A rejection in the FK group was 60 % at 3 and 6 months after transplantation versus 20 % and 12 %, respectively, in the 15 children operated on before the advent of FK 506, who were treated with cyclosporine-based triple-drug therapy (p < 0.001, Mantel-Cox and Breslow). Twenty of 24 children (83 %) in the FK 506 group are receiving no steroids. The prevalence of posttransplantation hypertension was 4 % in the FK 506 group versus 70 % in the cyclosporine group (p < 0.001, Fisher). Renal toxicity in children treated with FK 506 has been mild. Additionally, eight children have been switched to FK 506 because of refractory rejection and drug toxicity. FK 506 has not produced hirsutism, gingival hyperplasia, or abnormal facial bone growth. The absence of these debilitating side effects, together with the observed immune advantage and steroid-sparing effects of FK 506, hold tremendous promise for the young patient facing cardiac transplantation and a future wedded to immunosuppression

Natural Biomaterials for Cardiac Tissue Engineering: A Highly Biocompatible Solution.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) constitute a major fraction of the current major global diseases and lead to about 30% of the deaths, i.e., 17.9 million deaths per year. CVD include coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmias, heart failure, heart valve diseases, congenital heart disease, and cardiomyopathy. Cardiac Tissue Engineering (CTE) aims to address these conditions, the overall goal being the efficient regeneration of diseased cardiac tissue using an ideal combination of biomaterials and cells. Various cells have thus far been utilized in pre-clinical studies for CTE. These include adult stem cell populations (mesenchymal stem cells) and pluripotent stem cells (including autologous human induced pluripotent stem cells or allogenic human embryonic stem cells) with the latter undergoing differentiation to form functional cardiac cells. The ideal biomaterial for cardiac tissue engineering needs to have suitable material properties with the ability to support efficient attachment, growth, and differentiation of the cardiac cells, leading to the formation of functional cardiac tissue. In this review, we have focused on the use of biomaterials of natural origin for CTE. Natural biomaterials are generally known to be highly biocompatible and in addition are sustainable in nature. We have focused on those that have been widely explored in CTE and describe the original work and the current state of art. These include fibrinogen (in the context of Engineered Heart Tissue, EHT), collagen, alginate, silk, and Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs). Amongst these, fibrinogen, collagen, alginate, and silk are isolated from natural sources whereas PHAs are produced via bacterial fermentation. Overall, these biomaterials have proven to be highly promising, displaying robust biocompatibility and, when combined with cells, an ability to enhance post-MI cardiac function in pre-clinical models. As such, CTE has great potential for future clinical solutions and hence can lead to a considerable reduction in mortality rates due to CVD

Pediatric lung transplantation: The years 1985 to 1992 and the clinical trial of FK 506

The application of lung transplantation to the pediatric population was a natural extension of the success realized in our adult transplantation program, which began in 1982. Twenty pediatric patients (age range 3 to 18 years) have had heart-lung (n = 11), double lung (n = 8), and single lung (n = 1) transplantation procedures. The causes of end-stage lung disease were primary pulmonary hypertension (n = 7), congenital heart disease (n = 5), cystic fibrosis (n = 4), pulmonary arteriovenous malformation (n = 2), graft- versus-host disease (n = 1), and desquamative interstitial pneumonitis (n = 1). Four (20%) patients had thoracic surgical procedures before the transplantation operation. The survival was 80% at a mean follow-up of 2 years. Immunosuppressive drugs included cyclosporine (n = 9) or FK 506 (n = 11) based therapy with azathioprine and steroids. Children were followed up by means of spirometry, transbronchial biopsy, and primed lymphocyte testing of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. The mean number of treated episodes of rejection was 1.4 at 30 days, 0.5 at 30 to 90 days, and 1.4 at more than 90 days, and the first treated rejection episode occurred on average 28 days after the operation. Obliterative bronchiolitis developed in four (25%) of 16 patients surviving more than 100 days. Results of pulmonary function tests have remained good in almost all recipients. The greatest infectious risk was that of cytomegalovirus: one death and one case of pneumonia. Posttransplantation lymphoproliferative disease was diagnosed in two (12.5%) patients; both recovered. The most common complications were hypertension (25%) and postoperative bleeding (15%). Early results indicate that lung transplantation is a most promising therapy for children with severe vascular and parenchymal lung disease

Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model

Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well categorized and understood. In this study we compare the effect of synthetic errors in temperature and precipitation observations on the hindcast skill of a process-based crop model and a statistical crop model. We find that errors in temperature data have a significantly stronger influence on both models than errors in precipitation. We also identify key differences in the responses of these models to different types of input data error. Statistical and process-based model responses differ depending on whether synthetic errors are overestimates or underestimates. We also investigate the impact of crop yield calibration data on model skill for both models, using datasets of yield at three different spatial scales. Whilst important for both models, the statistical model is more strongly influenced by crop yield scale than the process-based crop model. However, our results question the value of high resolution yield data for improving the skill of crop models; we find a focus on accuracy to be more likely to be valuable. For both crop models, and for all three spatial scales of yield calibration data, we found that model skill is greatest where growing area is above 10-15 %. Thus information on area harvested would appear to be a priority for data collection efforts. These results are important for three reasons. First, understanding how different crop models rely on different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and crop yield data allows us to match the model type to the available data. Second, we can prioritize where improvements in climate and crop yield data should be directed. Third, as better climate and crop yield data becomes available, we can predict how crop model skill should improve

Evaluation of a candidate breast cancer associated SNP in ERCC4 as a risk modifier in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Results from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2 (CIMBA)

Background: In this study we aimed to evaluate the role of a SNP in intron 1 of the ERCC4 gene (rs744154), previously reported to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in the general population, as a breast cancer risk modifier in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Methods: We have genotyped rs744154 in 9408 BRCA1 and 5632 BRCA2 mutation carriers from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) and assessed its association with breast cancer risk using a retrospective weighted cohort approach. Results: We found no evidence of association with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 (per-allele HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93–1.04, P=0.5) or BRCA2 (per-allele HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89–1.06, P=0.5) mutation carriers. Conclusion: This SNP is not a significant modifier of breast cancer risk for mutation carriers, though weak associations cannot be ruled out. A Osorio1, R L Milne2, G Pita3, P Peterlongo4,5, T Heikkinen6, J Simard7, G Chenevix-Trench8, A B Spurdle8, J Beesley8, X Chen8, S Healey8, KConFab9, S L Neuhausen10, Y C Ding10, F J Couch11,12, X Wang11, N Lindor13, S Manoukian4, M Barile14, A Viel15, L Tizzoni5,16, C I Szabo17, L Foretova18, M Zikan19, K Claes20, M H Greene21, P Mai21, G Rennert22, F Lejbkowicz22, O Barnett-Griness22, I L Andrulis23,24, H Ozcelik24, N Weerasooriya23, OCGN23, A-M Gerdes25, M Thomassen25, D G Cruger26, M A Caligo27, E Friedman28,29, B Kaufman28,29, Y Laitman28, S Cohen28, T Kontorovich28, R Gershoni-Baruch30, E Dagan31,32, H Jernström33, M S Askmalm34, B Arver35, B Malmer36, SWE-BRCA37, S M Domchek38, K L Nathanson38, J Brunet39, T Ramón y Cajal40, D Yannoukakos41, U Hamann42, HEBON37, F B L Hogervorst43, S Verhoef43, EB Gómez García44,45, J T Wijnen46,47, A van den Ouweland48, EMBRACE37, D F Easton49, S Peock49, M Cook49, C T Oliver49, D Frost49, C Luccarini50, D G Evans51, F Lalloo51, R Eeles52, G Pichert53, J Cook54, S Hodgson55, P J Morrison56, F Douglas57, A K Godwin58, GEMO59,60,61, O M Sinilnikova59,60, L Barjhoux59,60, D Stoppa-Lyonnet61, V Moncoutier61, S Giraud59, C Cassini62,63, L Olivier-Faivre62,63, F Révillion64, J-P Peyrat64, D Muller65, J-P Fricker65, H T Lynch66, E M John67, S Buys68, M Daly69, J L Hopper70, M B Terry71, A Miron72, Y Yassin72, D Goldgar73, Breast Cancer Family Registry37, C F Singer74, D Gschwantler-Kaulich74, G Pfeiler74, A-C Spiess74, Thomas v O Hansen75, O T Johannsson76, T Kirchhoff77, K Offit77, K Kosarin77, M Piedmonte78, G C Rodriguez79, K Wakeley80, J F Boggess81, J Basil82, P E Schwartz83, S V Blank84, A E Toland85, M Montagna86, C Casella87, E N Imyanitov88, A Allavena89, R K Schmutzler90, B Versmold90, C Engel91, A Meindl92, N Ditsch93, N Arnold94, D Niederacher95, H Deißler96, B Fiebig97, R Varon-Mateeva98, D Schaefer99, U G Froster100, T Caldes101, M de la Hoya101, L McGuffog49, A C Antoniou49, H Nevanlinna6, P Radice4,5 and J Benítez1,3 on behalf of CIMB