Short-term demand forecast using a bank of neural network models trained using genetic algorithms for the optimal management of drinking water networks

Efficient management of a drinking water network reduces the economic costs related to water production and transport (pumping). Model predictive control (MPC) is nowadays a quite well-accepted approach for the efficient management of the water networks because it allows formulating the control problem in terms of the optimization of the economic costs. Therefore, short-term forecasts are a key issue in the performance of MPC applied to water distribution networks. However, the short-term horizon demand forecast in a horizon of 24 hours in an hourly based scale presents some challenges as the water consumption can change from one day to another, according to certain patterns of behavior (e.g., holidays and business days). This paper focuses on the problem of forecasting water demand for the next 24 hours. In this work, we propose to use a bank of models instead of a single model. Each model is designed for forecasting one particular hour. Hourly models use artificial neural networks. The architecture design and the training process are performed using genetic algorithms. The proposed approach is assessed using demand data from the Barcelona water network.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Estado del Arte en Cambio Climático, Agricultura y Seguridad Alimentaria de la República Dominicana

La República Dominicana es un país con un alto nivel de exposición y vulnerabilidad a eventos climáticos extremos a nivel mundial; es por esto que el Ministerio de Agricultura (MA) en colaboración con el Programa de Investigación CGIAR en Cambio Climático, Agricultura y Seguridad Alimentaria (CCAFS, por sus siglas en inglés) en América Latina y con apoyo del Consejo Agropecuario Centroamericano (CAC) presentan el “Estado del Arte en Cambio Climático, Agricultura y Seguridad Alimentaria de la República Dominicana”, que incluye el marco gubernamental y actores involucrados en torno a esta temática. En el documento se evidencia como los efectos del cambio climático han afectado el campo dominicano en gran parte de sus cultivos y como el gobierno ha venido enfatizando esfuerzos para disminuir la vulnerabilidad de la población y aumentar su resiliencia mediante políticas públicas y acciones integrales

EP-1270: Volumetric modulated arc therapy in high-risk neuroblatoma¥s treatment. Single institucional experience

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Study of H2/N2Mixture Plasma Treatment on the AISI 1045

In the present work, we analyzed the effect of the plasma treatment of 80% H2/20% N2 mixture plasma over the AISI 1045 steel. To produce the plasma, an AC discharge of 0.1 A at 350 V was produced at a total pressure of 3.0 Torr. The mixture plasma was analyzed using optical emission spectroscopy (OES), in the wavelength range of 200 to 1100 nm. The principal species observed in the plasma were NH, N2, N2+, H2, and Hα. The electron temperature and ion density have been measured using a double Langmuir probe. The samples of steel were treated by plasma at different discharge times, between 3 and 12 h, at the same pressure and AC parameters (0.1 A and 350 V). The treated samples were characterized using X-ray analysis, finding the phases gamma and epsilon of iron nitride. The thickness of the nitrided layers was measured using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). From the images obtained, it is possible to appreciate the interphase between the nitrided layer and the steel matrix. The relationship between the morphology of the surface of nitrided steel and the wetting was analyzed by measuring the contact angle between the surface and a drop of 5 μL of distilled water. The contact angle of the drop increased with the increase of plasma treatment time. The control sample without treatment presented a smaller angle, and after the treatment the surfaces of the steel became hydrophobic. This may be related to the morphology change of the steel surface produced by plasma treatment

The First Passage Probability of Intracellular Particle Trafficking

The first passage probability (FPP), of trafficked intracellular particles reaching a displacement L, in a given time t or inverse velocity S = t/L, can be calculated robustly from measured particle tracks, and gives a measure of particle movement in which different types of motion, e.g. diffusion, ballistic motion, and transient run-rest motion, can readily be distinguished in a single graph, and compared with mathematical models. The FPP is attractive in that it offers a means of reducing the data in the measured tracks, without making assumptions about the mechanism of motion: for example, it does not employ smoothing, segementation or arbitrary thresholds to discriminate between different types of motion in a particle track. Taking experimental data from tracked endocytic vesicles, and calculating the FPP, we see how three molecular treatments affect the trafficking. We show the FPP can quantify complicated movement which is neither completely random nor completely deterministic, making it highly applicable to trafficked particles in cell biology.Comment: Article: 13 pages, 8 figure

Evidence of suppression of onchocerciasis transmission in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for onchocerciasis elimination in Latin America by 2015. Most of the six previously endemic countries are attaining this goal by implementing twice a year (and in some foci, quarterly) mass ivermectin (Mectizan®) distribution. Elimination of transmission has been verified in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico. Challenges remain in the Amazonian focus straddling Venezuela and Brazil, where the disease affects the hard-to-reach Yanomami indigenous population. We provide evidence of suppression of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium guianense s.l. in 16 previously hyperendemic Yanomami communities in southern Venezuela after 15 years of 6-monthly and 5 years of 3-monthly mass ivermectin treatment. METHODS: Baseline and monitoring and evaluation parasitological, ophthalmological, entomological and serological surveys were conducted in selected sentinel and extra-sentinel communities of the focus throughout the implementation of the programme. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2012–2015, clinico-parasitological surveys indicate a substantial decrease in skin microfilarial prevalence and intensity of infection; accompanied by no evidence (or very low prevalence and intensity) of ocular microfilariae in the examined population. Of a total of 51,341 S. guianense flies tested by PCR none had L3 infection (heads only). Prevalence of infective flies and seasonal transmission potentials in 2012–2013 were, respectively, under 1 % and 20 L3/person/transmission season. Serology in children aged 1–10 years demonstrated that although 26 out of 396 (7 %) individuals still had Ov-16 antibodies, only 4/218 (2 %) seropositives were aged 1–5 years. CONCLUSIONS: We report evidence of recent transmission and morbidity suppression in some communities of the focus representing 75 % of the Yanomami population and 70 % of all known communities. We conclude that onchocerciasis transmission could be feasibly interrupted in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1313-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Differential transcription profiles inAedes aegyptidetoxification genes after temephos selection

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main vector of Dengue and Yellow Fever flaviviruses. The organophosphate insecticide temephos is a larvicide that is used globally to control Ae. aegypti populations; many of which have in turn evolved resistance. Target site alteration in the acetylcholine esterase of this species has not being identified. Instead, we tracked changes in transcription of metabolic detoxification genes using the Ae. aegypti ‘Detox Chip’ microarray during five generations of temephos selection. We selected for temephos resistance in three replicates in each of six collections, five from Mexico, and one from Peru. The response to selection was tracked in terms of lethal concentrations. Uniform upregulation was seen in the epsilon class glutathione-S-transferase (eGST) genes in strains from Mexico prior to laboratory selection, while eGSTs in the Iquitos Peru strain became upregulated after five generations of temephos selection. While expression of many carboxyl/cholinesterase esterase (CCE) genes increased with selection, no single esterase was consistently upregulated and this same pattern was noted in the cytochrome P450 monooxygenase (CYP) genes and in other genes involved in reduction or oxidation of xenobiotics. Bioassays using glutathione-S-transferase (GST), CCE and CYP inhibitors suggest that various CCEs instead of GSTs are the main metabolic mechanism conferring resistance to temephos. We show that temephos-selected strains show no cross resistance to permethrin and that genes associated with temephos selection are largely independent of those selected with permethrin in a previous study

Dynamical Processing of Geophysical Signatures based on SPOT-5 Remote Sensing Imagery

An intelligent post-processing computational paradigm based on the use of dynamical filtering techniques modified to enhance the quality of reconstruction of geophysical signatures based on Spot-5 imagery is proposed. As a matter of particular study, a robust algorithm is reported for the analysis of the dynamic behavior of geophysical indexes extracted from the real-world remotely sensed scenes. The simulation results verify the efficiency of the approach as required for decision support in resources management

A simplified courtship conditioning protocol to test learning and memory in Drosophila

In Drosophila, a male that has previously been sexually rejected reduces its courtship behavior when confronted again with an unreceptive female. This reduced courting time reflects a memory formation process. Here, we describe a simplified protocol to perform the courtship conditioning assay for assessing the reduced courting time, using regular lab equipment and handmade tools. Every step of the procedure, from raising flies and training to testing and quantification of this memory-related behavior, can be implemented in any practice laboratory.We would like to thank Javier Gil Castillo for its invaluable help and advices in 3D printing. We also thank the flies from Bloomington Stock Center. We would like to thank BioRender (www.biorender.com) for the open-access platform used to create the graphical abstract. This work was supported by the Spanish Research Agency (Ministerio de Innovacion y Ciencia [MICINN]) under the grant PGC2018-094630-B-100 to F.A.M., cofinanced by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) to F.A.M. F.A.M. is a recipient of a RyC-2014-14961 contract. B.G.-M. is a recipient of a FPI-UAM predoctoral fellowship, grant number SFPI/2020/00878. C.G.B. is a recipient of a FPU predoctoral fellowship, grant number FPU19/04449 (MEFP). S.P.-F. is a recipient of a JAE intro fellowship, grant number JAEINT_21_02520 (CSIC)