Patterns in recent and Holocene pollen accumulation rates across Europe - the Pollen Monitoring Programme Database as a tool for vegetation reconstruction

The collection of modern, spatially extensive pollen data is important for the interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages and the reconstruction of past vegetation communities in space and time. Modern datasets are readily available for percentage data but lacking for pollen accumulation rates (PARs). Filling this gap has been the motivation of the pollen monitoring network, whose contributors monitored pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps for several years or decades across Europe. Here we present this monitoring dataset consisting of 351 trap locations with a total of 2742 annual samples covering the period from 1981 to 2017. This dataset shows that total PAR is influenced by forest cover and climate parameters, which determine pollen productivity and correlate with latitude. Treeless vegetation produced PAR values of at least 140 grains cm(-2) yr(-1). Tree PAR increased by at least 400 grains cm(-2) yr(-1) with each 10% increase in forest cover. Pollen traps situated beyond 200 km of the distribution of a given tree species still collect occasional pollen grains of that species. The threshold of this long-distance transport differs for individual species and is generally below 60 grains cm(-2) yr(-1). Comparisons between modern and fossil PAR from the same regions show similar values. For temperate taxa, modern analogues for fossil PARs are generally found downslope or southward of the fossil sites. While we do not find modern situations comparable to fossil PAR values of some taxa (e.g. Corylus), CO2 fertilization and land use may cause high modern PARs that are not documented in the fossil record. The modern data are now publicly available in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and aid interpretations of fossil PAR data.Peer reviewe

The last reconnection of the Marmara Sea (Turkey) to the World Ocean : A paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic perspective

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 255 (2008): 64-82, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2008.07.005.During the late glacial, marine isotope Stage 2, the Marmara Sea transformed into a brackish lake as global sea level fell below the sill in the Dardanelles Strait. A record of the basin’s reconnection to the global ocean is preserved in its sediments permitting the extraction of the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history of the region. The goal of this study is to develop a high-resolution record of the lacustrine to marine transition of Marmara Sea in order to reconstruct regional and global climatic events at 24 a millennial scale. For this purpose, we mapped the paleoshorelines of Marmara Sea along the northern, eastern, and southern shelves at Çekmece, Prince Islands, and Imrali, using data from multibeam bathymetry, high-resolution subbottom profiling (chirp) and ten sediment cores. Detailed sedimentologic, biostratigraphic (foraminifers, mollusk, diatoms), X-ray fluorescence geochemical scanning, and oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses correlated to a calibrated radiocarbon chronology provided evidence for cold and dry conditions prior to 15 ka BP, warm conditions of the Bolling-Allerod from ~15 to 13 ka BP, a rapid marine incursion at 12 ka BP, still stand of Marmara Sea and sediment reworking of the paleoshorelines during the Younger Dryas at ~11.5 to 10.5 ka BP, and development of strong stratification and influx of nutrients as Black Sea waters spilled into Marmara Sea at 9.2 ka BP. Stable environmental conditions developed in Marmara Sea after 6.0 ka BP as sea-level reached its present shoreline and the basin floors filled with sediments achieving their present configuration.Support for the analyses was from NSF-OCE-0222139; OCE-9807266 and PSC-CUNY 69138-00 38

Patterns in recent and Holocene pollen accumulation rates across Europe - the Pollen Monitoring Programme Database as a tool for vegetation reconstruction

The collection of modern, spatially extensive pollen data is important for the interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages and the reconstruction of past vegetation communities in space and time. Modern datasets are readily available for percentage data but lacking for pollen accumulation rates (PARs). Filling this gap has been the motivation of the pollen monitoring network, whose contributors monitored pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps for several years or decades across Europe. Here we present this monitoring dataset consisting of 351 trap locations with a total of 2742 annual samples covering the period from 1981 to 2017. This dataset shows that total PAR is influenced by forest cover and climate parameters, which determine pollen productivity and correlate with latitude. Treeless vegetation produced PAR values of at least 140 grains cm(-2) yr(-1). Tree PAR increased by at least 400 grains cm(-2) yr(-1) with each 10% increase in forest cover. Pollen traps situated beyond 200 km of the distribution of a given tree species still collect occasional pollen grains of that species. The threshold of this long-distance transport differs for individual species and is generally below 60 grains cm(-2) yr(-1). Comparisons between modern and fossil PAR from the same regions show similar values. For temperate taxa, modern analogues for fossil PARs are generally found downslope or southward of the fossil sites. While we do not find modern situations comparable to fossil PAR values of some taxa (e.g. Corylus), CO2 fertilization and land use may cause high modern PARs that are not documented in the fossil record. The modern data are now publicly available in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and aid interpretations of fossil PAR data

First high-resolution marinopalynological stratigraphy of Late Quaternary sediments from the central part of the Bulgarian Black Sea area

Spores, pollen and dinoflagellate cysts of Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments were analyzed from Giant Gravity Core 18 from the Black Sea continental slope, recovered from a water depth of 971 m. The investigated length of the core is 203.5 cm. It includes 3 lithological units: light grey clay, sapropels and coccolith-bearing ooze. The core was sampled at 5-10 cm intervals. Sampling of the interval 141.5-126 cm was carried out at every cm. AMS radiocarbon dating of bulk organic carbon was performed on 18 selected sediment layers. This chronological data allowed the first high-resolution pollen stratigraphy of Late Quaternary sediments from the western Black Sea area to be presented. The percentage spore-pollen diagram is divided into 6 local pollen assemblage zones. The trends in the vegetation dynamics and climate changes and the early history of migration of the majority of the arboreal taxa that nowadays occur in the Eastern Balkan Range were traced out. The palynological record suggests that open oak forests were spread in the Eastern Balkan Range at the beginning of the Holocene and shows early migration of the major temperate arboreal species such as Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia and Carpinus betulus. This vegetation palaeosuccession continues with the spreading of mixed oak forests from 8950 until 2620 cal. BP (8650 ± 40 until 3120 ± 35 14C BP) followed by destructive changes due to human impact and climate deterioration. A cooling of Holocene climate that is well known in the North Atlantic region as the "8200 yrs cold event" is identified for the first time in marine records from the Bulgarian Black Sea area. The assemblages of dinoflagellate cysts and acritarchs were investigated to provide a reconstruction of surface seawater salinity and surface seawater temperature changes. Two main dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, one dominated by fresh- to brackish water species such as Spiniferites cruciformis and Pyxidinopsis psilata and a subsequent one, that is characterized by euryhaline marine Mediterranean species such as Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Spiniferites belerius, Spiniferites bentorii, Operculodinium centrocarpum and acritarchs Cymatiosphaera globulosa testified a change in SSS from low salinity (<7‰) to present day conditions after 7990 cal. BP. Substantial freshening of Black Sea surface waters at 2570 cal. BP is established and connected with the transition from a relatively dry and warm to relatively cold and wet climate

The measles outbreak in Bulgaria, 2009–2011: An epidemiological assessment and lessons learnt

Measles re-emerged in a nationwide outbreak in Bulgaria from 2009 to 2011 despite reported high vaccination coverage at national level. This followed an eight-year period since the last indigenous cases of measles were detected. The Bulgarian National Centre of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases collated measles surveillance data for 2009–2011. We analysed data for age group, sex, ethnicity, diagnosis confirmation, vaccination, hospitalisation, disease complications, and death and describe the outbreak control measures taken. The outbreak started in April 2009 following an importation of measles virus and affected 24,364 persons, predominantly Roma. Most cases (73%) were among children < 15 years old. Vaccination status was available for 52% (n = 12,630) of cases. Of children 1–14 years old, 22% (n = 1,769) were unvaccinated and 70% (n = 5,518) had received one dose of a measles-containing vaccine. Twenty-four measles-related deaths were reported. The Roma ethnic group was particularly susceptible to measles. The magnitude of the outbreak resulted primarily from the accumulation of susceptible children over time. This outbreak serves as a reminder that both high vaccination coverage and closing of immunity gaps across all sections of the population are crucial to reach the goal of measles elimination

The consequences of doing nothing: the effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones

Sea level rise and an increased frequency and severity of storm surge events due to climate change are likely to increase the susceptibility of low lying coastal areas to seawater flooding. An integral part of any coastal management strategy throughout European countries is the “do nothing” scenario; this is the benchmark against which putative intervention strategies are evaluated.While the prime concern of a flood defense scheme appraisal often focuses on the sustained financial “benefits” of an intervention, intrinsic to a complete multi criteria analysis is a comprehensive evaluation of the ecological and social consequences of coastal flooding, reflecting the needs of end users and satisfying relevant national and international policies. An ecological perspective may be usefully employed to examine the impact of the do nothing option on coastal environments (e.g. estuaries, sand dunes and grasslands) and businesses. Although at first sight coastal environmental and business systems appear quite different, they have similarities in that both are vulnerable and susceptible to flood damage or loss and both may be analyzed by employing ecological, adaptive, resilience frameworks. From an ecological perspective many coastal environments are of international conservation importance and provide important ecosystem services including coastal protection, nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, food production and recreation. Nonetheless, despite their potential vulnerability to coastal flooding, our understanding of the effects of salinity on the biological response of many coastal plants and animals is extremely limited.We show here how plant physiology and patterns of plant and invertebrate distribution are impacted by sea water flooding.We also present responses of model plants to sea water inundation based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) predictions of sea level rise and storm surge events. Results showed that coastal habitats surveyed are relatively resilient to flooding due to their species rich nature and their ability to adapt to flooding. However specific groups of plants such as grasses are more affected by flooding and less able to recover. The socio-economic dimensions of doing nothing are addressed in relation to the impacts of coastal flooding specifically on business activity, which has received little attention to date. Here the focus is on the presence or absence of business disruption and recovery plans as a means of increasing a business's adaptation and resilience to flooding. Results show that some businesses, particularly small ones, are more likely to fail to recover from flooding due to lack of forward planning. Therefore from an ecological perspective business recovery post flooding is likely to be dependent upon ability to adapt, which itself depends upon the construction of resilient business environments

Evolution of the plankton paleome in the Black Sea from the Deglacial to Anthropocene

The complex interplay of climate shifts over Eurasia and global sea level changes modulates freshwater and saltwater inputs to the Black Sea. The dynamics of the hydrologic changes from the Late Glacial into the Holocene remain a matter of debate, and information on how these changes affected the ecology of the Black Sea is sparse. Here we used Roche 454 next-generation pyrosequencing of sedimentary 18S rRNA genes to reconstruct the plankton community structure in the Black Sea over the last ca. 11,400 y. We found that 150 of 2,710 species showed a statistically significant response to four environmental stages. Freshwater chlorophytes were the best indicator species for lacustrine conditions (&gt;9.0 ka B.P.), although the copresence of previously unidentified marine taxa indicated that the Black Sea might have been influenced to some extent by the Marmara Sea since at least 9.6 ka calendar (cal) B.P. Dinoflagellates, cercozoa, eustigmatophytes, and haptophytes responded most dramatically to the gradual increase in salinity after the latest marine reconnection and during the warm and moist mid- Holocene climatic optimum. According to paired analysis of deuterium/ hydrogen (D/H) isotope ratios in fossil alkenones, salinity increased rapidly with the onset of the dry Subboreal after ~5.2 ka B.P., leading to an increase in marine fungi and the first occurrence of marine copepods. Agradual succession of dinoflagellates, diatoms, and chrysophytes occurred during the refreshening after ~2.5 ka cal B.P. with the onset of the cool and wet Subatlantic climate and recent anthropogenic perturbations

Pollen-derived biomes in the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian-Corridor

Aim: To evaluate the biomization technique for reconstructing past vegetation in the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian-Corridor using an extensive modern pollen data set and comparing reconstructions to potential vegetation and observed land cover data. Location: The region between 28–48°N and 22–62°E. Methods: We apply the biomization technique to 1,387 modern pollen samples, representing 1,107 entities, to reconstruct the distribution of 13 broad vegetation categories (biomes). We assess the results using estimates of potential natural vegetation from the European Vegetation Map and the Physico-Geographic Atlas of the World. We test whether anthropogenic disturbance affects reconstruction quality using land use information from the Global Land Cover data set. Results: The biomization scheme successfully predicts the broadscale patterns of vegetation across the region, including changes with elevation. The technique discriminates deserts from shrublands, the prevalence of woodlands in moister lowland sites, and the presence of temperate and mixed forests at higher elevations. Quantitative assessment of the reconstructions is less satisfactory: the biome is predicted correctly at 44% of the sites in Europe and 33% of the sites overall. The low success rate is not a reflection of anthropogenic impacts: only 33% of the samples are correctly assigned after the removal of sites in anthropogenically altered environments. Open vegetation is less successfully predicted (33%) than forest types (73%), reflecting the under-representation of herbaceous taxa in pollen assemblages and the impact of long-distance pollen transport into open environments. Samples from small basins (&amp;lt;1 km2) are more likely to be reconstructed accurately, with 58% of the sites in Europe and 66% of all sites correctly predicted, probably because they sample an appropriate pollen source area to reflect regional vegetation patterns in relatively heterogeneous landscapes. While methodological biases exist, the low confidence of the quantitative comparisons should not be over-emphasized because the target maps themselves are not accurate representations of vegetation patterns in this region. Main Conclusions: The biomization scheme yields reasonable reconstructions of the broadscale vegetation patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian-Corridor, particularly if appropriate-sized sampling sites are used. Our results indicate biomization could be used to reconstruct changing patterns of vegetation in response to past climate changes in this region. © 2017 John Wiley &amp; Sons Lt