Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

The double-moment cloud microphysics scheme from ECHAM4 has been coupled to the size-resolved aerosol scheme ECHAM5-HAM. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the aerosol mass and number concentrations and the aerosol mixing state. This results in a much better agreement with observed vertical profiles of the black carbon and aerosol mass mixing ratios than with the previous version ECHAM4, where only the different aerosol mass mixing ratios were predicted. Also, the simulated liquid, ice and total water content and the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as a function of temperature in stratiform mixed-phase clouds between 0 and –35°C agree much better with aircraft observations in the ECHAM5 simulations. ECHAM5 performs better because more realistic aerosol concentrations are available for cloud droplet nucleation and because the Bergeron-Findeisen process is parameterized as being more efficient. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect includes the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects and is defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation between present-day and pre-industrial times. It amounts to –1.8 W m^−2 in ECHAM5, when a relative humidity dependent cloud cover scheme and present-day aerosol emissions representative for the year 2000 are used. It is larger when either a statistical cloud cover scheme or a different aerosol emission inventory are employed

On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle

International audienceReconstructing convective flow in the Earth's mantle is a crucial issue for a diversity of disciplines, from seismology to sedimentology. The common and fundamental limitation of these reconstructions based on geodynamic modelling is the unknown initial conditions. Because of the chaotic nature of convection in the Earth's mantle, errors in initial conditions grow exponentially with time and limit forecasting and hindcasting abilities. In this work we estimate for the first time the limit of predictability of Earth's mantle convection. Following the twin experiment method, we compute the Lyapunov time (i.e. e-folding time) for state-of-the art 3D spherical convection models, varying rheology and Rayleigh number. Our most Earth-like and optimistic solution gives a Lyapunov time of 136±13 My. Rough estimates of the uncertainties in best guessed initial conditions are around 5%, leading to a limit of predictability for mantle convection of 95 My. Our results suggest that error growth could produce unrealistic convective structures over timescales shorter than that of Pangea dispersal

Developing a climatological simplification of aerosols to enter the cloud microphysics of a global climate model

Aerosol particles influence cloud formation and properties. Hence climate models that aim for a physical representation of the climate system include aerosol modules. In order to represent more and more processes and aerosol species, their representation has grown increasingly detailed. However, depending on one's modelling purpose, the increased model complexity may not be beneficial, for example because it hinders understanding of model behaviour. Hence we develop a simplification in the form of a climatology of aerosol concentrations. In one approach, the climatology prescribes properties important for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, the gateways for aerosols to enter the model cloud microphysics scheme. Another approach prescribes aerosol mass and number concentrations in general. Both climatologies are derived from full ECHAM-HAM simulations and can serve to replace the HAM aerosol module and thus drastically simplify the aerosol treatment. The first simplification reduces computational model time by roughly 65 %. However, the naive mean climatological treatment needs improvement to give results that are satisfyingly close to the full model. We find that mean cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations yield an underestimation of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) in the Southern Ocean, which we can reduce by allowing only CCN at cloud base (which have experienced hygroscopic growth in these conditions) to enter the climatology. This highlights the value of the simplification approach in pointing to unexpected model behaviour and providing a new perspective for its study and model development.</p

Aerosol size-dependent below-cloud scavenging by rain and snow in the ECHAM5-HAM

Wet deposition processes are highly efficient in the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere, and thus strongly influence global aerosol concentrations, and clouds, and their respective radiative forcings. In this study, physically detailed size-dependent below-cloud scavenging parameterizations for rain and snow are implemented in the ECHAM5-HAM global aerosol-climate model. Previously, below-cloud scavenging by rain in the ECHAM5-HAM was simply a function of the aerosol mode, and then scaled by the rainfall rate. The below-cloud scavenging by snow was a function of the snowfall rate alone. The global mean aerosol optical depth, and sea salt burden are sensitive to the below-cloud scavenging coefficients, with reductions near to 15% when the more vigorous size-dependent below-cloud scavenging by rain and snow is implemented. The inclusion of a prognostic rain scheme significantly reduces the fractional importance of below-cloud scavenging since there is higher evaporation in the lower tropospher, increasing the global mean sea salt burden by almost 15%. Thermophoretic effects are show to produce increases in the global and annual mean below-cloud number removal of Aitken size particles of near to 15%, but very small increases (near 1%) in the global mean below-cloud mass scavenging of ultra-fine particles by rain do not cause any significant changes to the global mean aerosol mass or number burdens, despite a change in the below-cloud number removal rate for nucleation mode particles by near to 10%. For nucleation mode particles, changes to the assumptions about the below-cloud scavenging by snow produce a greater change in the number removal rate, in excess of one order of magnitude. Closer agreement with different observations is found when the more physically detailed below-cloud scavenging parameterization is employed in the ECHAM5-HAM model

The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 – Part 2: Cloud evaluation, aerosol radiative forcing, and climate sensitivity

The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 (E63H23) as well as the previous model versions ECHAM5.5–HAM2.0 (E55H20) and ECHAM6.1–HAM2.2 (E61H22) are evaluated using global observational datasets for clouds and precipitation. In E63H23, the amount of low clouds, the liquid and ice water path, and cloud radiative effects are more realistic than in previous model versions. E63H23 has a more physically based aerosol activation scheme, improvements in the cloud cover scheme, changes in the detrainment of convective clouds, changes in the sticking efficiency for the accretion of ice crystals by snow, consistent ice crystal shapes throughout the model, and changes in mixed-phase freezing; an inconsistency in ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) in cirrus clouds was also removed. Common biases in ECHAM and in E63H23 (and in previous ECHAM–HAM versions) are a cloud amount in stratocumulus regions that is too low and deep convective clouds over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans that form too close to the continents (while tropical land precipitation is underestimated). There are indications that ICNCs are overestimated in E63H23. Since clouds are important for effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFari+aci) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), differences in ERFari+aci and ECS between the model versions were also analyzed. ERFari+aci is weaker in E63H23 (−1.0 W m−2) than in E61H22 (−1.2 W m−2) (or E55H20; −1.1 W m−2). This is caused by the weaker shortwave ERFari+aci (a new aerosol activation scheme and sea salt emission parameterization in E63H23, more realistic simulation of cloud water) overcompensating for the weaker longwave ERFari+aci (removal of an inconsistency in ICNC in cirrus clouds in E61H22). The decrease in ECS in E63H23 (2.5 K) compared to E61H22 (2.8 K) is due to changes in the entrainment rate for shallow convection (affecting the cloud amount feedback) and a stronger cloud phase feedback. Experiments with minimum cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCmin) of 40 cm−3 or 10 cm−3 show that a higher value of CDNCmin reduces ERFari+aci as well as ECS in E63H23

Simulating the seeder–feeder impacts on cloud ice and precipitation over the Alps

The ice phase impacts many cloud properties as well as cloud lifetime. Ice particles that sediment into a lower cloud from an upper cloud (external seeder–feeder process) or into the mixed-phase region of a deep cloud from cirrus levels (internal seeder–feeder process) can influence the ice phase of the lower cloud, amplify cloud glaciation and enhance surface precipitation. Recently, numerical weather prediction modeling studies have aimed at representing the ice crystal number concentration in mixed-phase clouds more accurately by including secondary ice formation processes. The increase in the ice crystal number concentration can impact the number of ice particles that sediment into the lower cloud and alter its composition and precipitation formation. In the Swiss Alps, the orography permits the formation of orographic clouds, making it ideal for studying the occurrence of multi-layered clouds and the seeder–feeder process. We present results from a case study on 18 May 2016, showing the occurrence frequency of multi-layered clouds and the seeder–feeder process. About half of all observed clouds were categorized as multi-layered, and the external seeder–feeder process occurred in 10 % of these clouds. Between cloud layers, ≈60 % of the ice particle mass was lost due to sublimation or melting. The external seeder–feeder process was found to be more important than the internal seeder–feeder process with regard to the impact on precipitation. In the case where the external seeder–feeder process was inhibited, the average surface precipitation and riming rate over the domain were both reduced by 8.5 % and 3.9 %, respectively. When ice–graupel collisions were allowed, further large reductions were seen in the liquid water fraction and riming rate. Inhibiting the internal seeder–feeder process enhanced the liquid water fraction by 6 % compared to a reduction of 5.8 % in the cloud condensate, therefore pointing towards the de-amplification in cloud glaciation and a reduction in surface precipitation. Adding to the observational evidence of frequent seeder–feeder situations, at least over Switzerland, our study highlights the extensive influence of sedimenting ice particles on the properties of feeder clouds as well as on precipitation formation.</p

Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability

This is the final version. Available from National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this recordA large number of processes are involved in the chain from emissions of aerosol precursor gases and primary particles to impacts on cloud radiative forcing. Those processes are manifest in a number of relationships that can be expressed as factors dlnX/dlnY driving aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. These factors include the relationships between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and emissions, droplet number and CCN concentration, cloud fraction and droplet number, cloud optical depth and droplet number, and cloud radiative forcing and cloud optical depth. The relationship between cloud optical depth and droplet number can be further decomposed into the sum of two terms involving the relationship of droplet effective radius and cloud liquid water path with droplet number. These relationships can be constrained using observations of recent spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. However, we are most interested in the radiative forcing since the preindustrial era. Because few relevant measurements are available from that era, relationships from recent variability have been assumed to be applicable to the preindustrial to present-day change. Our analysis of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) model simulations suggests that estimates of relationships from recent variability are poor constraints on relationships from anthropogenic change for some terms, with even the sign of some relationships differing in many regions. Proxies connecting recent spatial/temporal variability to anthropogenic change, or sustained measurements in regions where emissions have changed, are needed to constrain estimates of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud radiative forcing.The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for the Department of Energy (DOE) by Battelle Memorial Institute under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830. Work at PNNL was supported by the US DOE Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models program and by the US DOE Earth System Modeling program. Work of M.W. and S.Z. performed at Nanjing University was supported by the One Thousand Young Talent Program, Jiangsu Province Specially-Appointed Professor Grant, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41575073). A portion of this research was performed using PNNL Institutional Computing resources. The ECHAM6-HAM model was developed by a consortium composed of ETH Zurich, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Forschungszentrum Jülich, University of Oxford, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, and the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, and is managed by the Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) at ETH Zurich. D.N. acknowledges support by the Austrian Science Fund (J 3402-N29, Erwin Schrödinger Fellowship Abroad). C2SM at ETH Zurich is acknowledged for providing technical and scientific support. This work was also supported by a grant from the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre under Project ID s431. D.G.P. and P.S. acknowledge support from the United Kingdom (UK) Natural Environment Research Council Grant NE/I020148/1. P.S. and Z.K. acknowledge funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) ERC project ACCLAIM (Grant Agreement FP7-280025). The development of modal version of the GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode) within Hadley Center Global Environmental Mode (HadGEM) is part of the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) project, which is supported by both National Environmental Research Council (NERC) and the Joint Department of Energy & Climate Change/Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs Meteorology Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme. We acknowledge use of the Met Office and NERC MONSooN high performance computing system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, a strategic partnership between the Met Office and the NERC. Simulations by SPRINTARS were executed with the supercomputer system SX-9/ACE of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. SPRINTARS is partly supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research 15H01728 and 15K12190. Computing resources for CAM5-MG2 simulations were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. NCAR is sponsored by the US National Science Foundation