Split-then-Combine Method for out-of-sample Combinations of Forecasts

Relative forecast performance of forecast units may periodically evolve over time. Therefore, it is desirable to take into account their forecast periodicity when forming forecast combinations. When dealing with small samples and small number of models, using panels is an efficient way of pulling out the additional information provided by that periodicity in the data. We capture this periodic information with different weights at different periods that we then keep in the out-of-sample combination. As in the simple average, we do not estimate weights, but instead compute them from panels of forecasts taken as given data. Empirical and bootstrap exercises illustrate the superiority of this method over fixed weight scheme

El acceso a los destinos rurales: una perspectiva para la planificación territorial del turismo en una región de interior (Castilla-La Mancha)

El artículo propone una tipología de áreas de mercado turístico a partir del análisis de la accesibilidad a los principales activos turísticos de Castilla-La Mancha. El objetivo es profundizar en la búsqueda de explicaciones lógicas sobre el impacto que tiene la accesibilidad en el desarrollo turístico de los territorios. Especialmente en áreas rurales donde la dotación diferencial de infraestructuras de transporte ha generado desequilibrios notables. Su comprensión, desde la lógica estructural origen-enlace-destino que adoptan muchos de los sistemas territoriales, supone un avance en el complejo proceso de planificación territorial del turismo. Los resultados obtenidos y trasladados a la escala supramunicipal ponen de relieve potencialidades y desventajas a considerar en las estrategias de los espacios rurales. 

Amplitude and phase representation of quantum invariants for the time dependent harmonic oscillator

The correspondence between classical and quantum invariants is established. The Ermakov Lewis quantum invariant of the time dependent harmonic oscillator is translated from the coordinate and momentum operators into amplitude and phase operators. In doing so, Turski's phase operator as well as Susskind-Glogower operators are generalized to the time dependent harmonic oscillator case. A quantum derivation of the Manley-Rowe relations is shown as an example

Acute-on-chronic liver failure in cirrhosis

The definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) remains contested. In Europe and North America, the term is generally applied according to the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Consortium guidelines, which defines this condition as a syndrome that develops in patients with cirrhosis and is characterized by acute decompensation, organ failure and high short-term mortality. One-third of patients who are hospitalized for acute decompensation present with ACLF at admission or develop the syndrome during hospitalization. ACLF frequently occurs in a closed temporal relationship to a precipitating event, such as bacterial infection or acute alcoholic, drug-induced or viral hepatitis. However, no precipitating event can be identified in approximately 40% of patients. The mechanisms of ACLF involve systemic inflammation due to infections, acute liver damage and, in cases without precipitating events, probably intestinal translocation of bacteria or bacterial products. ACLF is graded into three stages (ACLF grades 1-3) on the basis of the number of organ failures, with higher grades associated with increased mortality. Liver and renal failures are the most common organ failures, followed by coagulation, brain, circulatory and respiratory failure. The 28-day mortality rate associated with ACLF is 30%. Depending on the grade, ACLF can be reversed using standard therapy in only 16-51% of patients, leaving a considerable proportion of patients with ACLF that remains steady or progresses. Liver transplantation in selected patients with ACLF grade 2 and ACLF grade 3 increases the 6-month survival from 10% to 80%

Exact renormalization-group analysis of first order phase transitions in clock models

We analyze the exact behavior of the renormalization group flow in one-dimensional clock-models which undergo first order phase transitions by the presence of complex interactions. The flow, defined by decimation, is shown to be single-valued and continuous throughout its domain of definition, which contains the transition points. This fact is in disagreement with a recently proposed scenario for first order phase transitions claiming the existence of discontinuities of the renormalization group. The results are in partial agreement with the standard scenario. However in the vicinity of some fixed points of the critical surface the renormalized measure does not correspond to a renormalized Hamiltonian for some choices of renormalization blocks. These pathologies although similar to Griffiths-Pearce pathologies have a different physical origin: the complex character of the interactions. We elucidate the dynamical reason for such a pathological behavior: entire regions of coupling constants blow up under the renormalization group transformation. The flows provide non-perturbative patterns for the renormalization group behavior of electric conductivities in the quantum Hall effect.Comment: 13 pages + 3 ps figures not included, TeX, DFTUZ 91.3

The scope of language contact as a constraint factor in language change: The periphrasis haber de plus infinitive in a corpus of language immediacy in modern Spanish

In this work an empirical study grounded in the principles and methods of the comparative variationist framework is conducted to measure the scope of language contact as a factor constraining some potentially diverging uses of a Spanish verbal periphrasis that has undergone a sharp decline over the last century (haber de plus infinitive). The analysis is based on three independent samples of text that correspond to three dialectal areas of peninsular Spanish (monolingual zones, Catalan-speaking linguistic territories and the north-western linguistic area). These samples, extracted from a corpus made up of texts of communicative immediacy from the 19th and the first half of the 20th centuries, confirm the existence of a certain linguistic convergence in the expressive habits of the speakers in the bilingual communities. In each region, however, the outcomes are different, due to parallel differences in the structural position of the periphrasis in each language. However, a thorough analysis of the variable context that surrounds the periphrasis shows that the observed differences do not affect the essence of the underlying grammar of this variant, whose decline (which favours tener que plus infinitive and becomes faster as the 20th century advances) is constrained by identical linguistic and extralinguistic conditioning factors in all the dialectal areas

Iberian Neanderthals in forests and savannahs

This article aims to delve into the reality of glacial refuges of forests and tree species (including conifers, mesothermophilous angiosperms and xerothermic scrub) during the cold dry phases of the Iberian Pleistocene in which there is evidence of occupation of Middle Palaeolithic people. The research framework focuses on the eastern sector of the Iberian Peninsula due to the physiographic, palaeobotanical and archaeological peculiarities, substantiated by recent studies. We contend that some Neanderthal occupations developed in the context of high geobiological complexity, high biological diversity and highly structured forest ecosystems. We highlight the importance of glacial refuges as local anomalies that, however, would be contingent on vegetational development, and on the survival of Palaeolithic groups in areas with a broad diversity of natural resources.The development of this work was supported by Projects CGL2015‐69160‐R, CGL‐BOS2015‐68604‐P, funded by FEDER/Ministry of Science and Innovation – Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Project (PID2019‐1049449GB‐I00), funded by FEDER/Ministry of Science and Innovation – Agencia Estatal de Investigación and Fundación Séneca (grant no. 20788/PI/18). A.B.M.A.'s work has been partially funded by the Spanish Science Ministry (HAR2017‐84997‐P) and the ERC‐CoG project (SUBSILIENCE Ref 818299

Assessing discards in an illegal small-scale fishery using fisher-led reporting

Funding: Newton Fund (IL 2018-Grant Agreement 414695818 James PER), Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico, Tecnológico y de Innovación Tecnológica (PE) (FONDECYT 2018-222).About a third of all marine fish in the world are caught in Small-Scale Fisheries (SSF). SSF are increasingly recognised as essential for food security and livelihoods for vulnerable and economically fragile communities globally. Although individual SSF vessels are usually perceived as having little impact on the ecosystem, the cumulative impact of gear type and number of vessels may be substantial. Bottom trawling is a common fishing method that can greatly influence the marine ecosystem by damaging the seafloor and generating high levels of discards. However, appropriate sampling coverage using on-board observer programmes to collect these data from SSF are rare, as they are expensive and pose logistical constraints. A mobile App was used to assess whether self-reporting by fishers could provide reliable fine-scale information on fishing effort and discards over time in an illegal shrimp trawling fishery in northern Peru. Maps depicting the spatial distribution of trawling effort and the proportion of discards from observers and fishers were compared using the Similarity in Means (SIM) Index, which ranges from 0 when spatial patterns differ completely to 1 when spatial patterns are very similar. High levels of agreement between spatio-temporal patterns of effort (SIM Index = 0.81) and discards (0.96) were found between fisher and observer maps. Moreover, far greater spatial coverage was accomplished by fishers, suggesting that self-reporting via an App represents a useful approach to collect reliable fisheries data as an initial step for effective monitoring and management of these fisheries.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Mixed Production of Filamentous Fungal Spores for Preventing Soil-Transmitted Helminth Zoonoses: A Preliminary Analysis

Helminth zoonoses are parasitic infections shared by humans and animals, being the soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) mainly caused by roundworms (ascarids) and hookworms. This study was aimed to assess the individual and/or mixed production of two helminth-antagonistic fungi, one ovicide (Mucor circinelloides) and other predator (Duddingtonia flagrans). Fungi were grown both in Petri plates and in a submerged culture (composed by water, NaCl, Na2HPO4 · 12 H2O, and wheat (Triticum aestivum)). A Fasciola hepatica recombinant protein (FhrAPS) was incorporated to the cultures to improve fungal production. All the cultured plates showed fungal growth, without difference in the development of the fungi when grown alone or mixed. High counts of Mucor spores were produced in liquid media cultures, and no significant differences were achieved regarding single or mixed cultures, or the incorporation of the FhrAPS. A significantly higher production of Duddingtonia spores after the incorporation of the FhrAPS was observed. When analyzing the parasiticide efficacy of the fungal mixture, viability of T. canis eggs reduced to 51%, and the numbers of third stage cyathostomin larvae reduced to 4%. It is concluded, the capability of a fungal mixture containing an ovicide (Mucor) and a predator species (Duddingtonia) for growing together in a submerged medium containing the FhrAPS offers a very interesting tool for preventing STHs.This work was partly supported by the Research Projects 10MDS261023PR (Xunta de Galicia, Spain) and AGL2012-34355 (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Spain; FEDER)S