Comparison of Tobacco Control Scenarios: Quantifying Estimates of Long-Term Health Impact Using the DYNAMO-HIA Modeling Tool

There are several types of tobacco control interventions/policies which can change future smoking exposure. The most basic intervention types are 1) smoking cessation interventions 2) preventing smoking initiation and 3) implementation of a nationwide policy affecting quitters and starters simultaneously. The possibility for dynamic quantification of such different interventions is key for comparing the timing and size of their effects

Buses, cars, bicycles and walkers the influence of the type of human transport on the flight responses of waterbirds

One way to manage disturbance to waterbirds in natural areas where humans require access is to promote the occurrence of stimuli for which birds tolerate closer approaches, and so cause fewer responses. We conducted 730 experimental approaches to 39 species of waterbird, using five stimulus types (single walker, three walkers, bicycle, car and bus) selected to mimic different human management options available for a controlled access, Ramsar-listed wetland. Across species, where differences existed (56% of 25 cases), motor vehicles always evoked shorter flight-initiation distances (FID) than humans on foot. The influence of stimulus type on FID varied across four species for which enough data were available for complete cross-stimulus analysis. All four varied FID in relation to stimuli, differing in 4 to 7 of 10 possible comparisons. Where differences occurred, the effect size was generally modest, suggesting that managing stimulus type (e.g. by requiring people to use vehicles) may have species-specific, modest benefits, at least for the waterbirds we studied. However, different stimulus types have different capacities to reduce the frequency of disturbance (i.e. by carrying more people) and vary in their capacity to travel around important habita

Challenges in Survey Research

While being an important and often used research method, survey research has been less often discussed on a methodological level in empirical software engineering than other types of research. This chapter compiles a set of important and challenging issues in survey research based on experiences with several large-scale international surveys. The chapter covers theory building, sampling, invitation and follow-up, statistical as well as qualitative analysis of survey data and the usage of psychometrics in software engineering surveys.Comment: Accepted version of chapter in the upcoming book on Contemporary Empirical Methods in Software Engineering. Update includes revision of typos and additional figures. Last update includes fixing two small issues and typo

Increasing incidence and mortality of infective endocarditis: a population-based study through a record-linkage system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few population-based studies provide epidemiological data on infective endocarditis (IE). Aim of the study is to analyze incidence and outcomes of IE in the Veneto Region (North-Eastern Italy).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Residents with a first hospitalization for IE in 2000-2008 were extracted from discharge data and linked to mortality records to estimate 365-days survival. Etiology was retrieved in subsets of this cohort by discharge codes and by linkage to a microbiological database. Risk factors for mortality were assessed through logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1,863 subjects were hospitalized for IE, with a corresponding crude rate of 4.4 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from 4.1 in 2000-2002 to 4.9 in 2006-2008 (p = 0.003). Median age was 68 years; 39% of subjects were hospitalized in the three preceding months. 23% of patients underwent a cardiac valve procedure in the index admission or in the following year. Inhospital mortality was 14% (19% including hospital transfers); 90-days and 365-days mortality rose through the study years. Mortality increased with age and the Charlson comorbidity index, in subjects with previous hospitalizations for heart failure, and (in the subcohort with microbiological data) in IE due to Staphylococci (40% of IE).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study demonstrates an increasing incidence and mortality for IE over the last decade. Analyses of electronic archives provide a region-wide picture of IE, overcoming referral biases affecting single clinic or multicentric studies, and therefore represent a first fundamental step to detect critical issues related to IE.</p

Thermal niche evolution and geographical range expansion in a species complex of western Mediterranean diving beetles

[Background] Species thermal requirements are one of the principal determinants of their ecology and biogeography, although our understanding of the interplay between these factors is limited by the paucity of integrative empirical studies. Here we use empirically collected thermal tolerance data in combination with molecular phylogenetics/phylogeography and ecological niche modelling to study the evolution of a clade of three western Mediterranean diving beetles, the Agabus brunneus complex.[Results] The preferred mitochondrial DNA topology recovered A. ramblae (North Africa, east Iberia and Balearic islands) as paraphyletic, with A. brunneus (widespread in the southwestern Mediterranean) and A. rufulus (Corsica and Sardinia) nested within it, with an estimated origin between 0.60-0.25 Ma. All three species were, however, recovered as monophyletic using nuclear DNA markers. A Bayesian skyline plot suggested demographic expansion in the clade at the onset of the last glacial cycle. The species thermal tolerances differ significantly, with A. brunneus able to tolerate lower temperatures than the other taxa. The climatic niche of the three species also differs, with A. ramblae occupying more arid and seasonal areas, with a higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. The estimated potential distribution for both A. brunneus and A. ramblae was most restricted in the last interglacial, becoming increasingly wider through the last glacial and the Holocene.[Conclusions] The A. brunneus complex diversified in the late Pleistocene, most likely in south Iberia after colonization from Morocco. Insular forms did not differentiate substantially in morphology or ecology, but A. brunneus evolved a wider tolerance to cold, which appeared to have facilitated its geographic expansion. Both A. brunneus and A. ramblae expanded their ranges during the last glacial, although they have not occupied areas beyond their LGM potential distribution except for isolated populations of A. brunneus in France and England. On the islands and possibly Tunisia secondary contact between A. brunneus and A. ramblae or A. rufulus has resulted in introgression. Our work highlights the complex dynamics of speciation and range expansions within southern areas during the last glacial cycle, and points to the often neglected role of North Africa as a source of European biodiversity.This work was supported by an FPI grant to AH-G and projects CGL2007-61665 and CGL2010-15755 from the Spanish government to IR. We acknowledge support of the publication fee by the CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI).Peer reviewe

Evidence of fatal skeletal injuries on Malapa Hominins 1 and 2

Malapa is one of the richest early hominin sites in Africa and the discovery site of the hominin species, Australopithecus sediba. The holotype and paratype (Malapa Hominin 1 and 2, or MH1 and MH2, respectively) skeletons are among the most complete in the early hominin record. Dating to approximately two million years BP, MH1 and MH2 are hypothesized to have fallen into a natural pit trap. All fractures evident on MH1 and MH2 skeletons were evaluated and separated based on wet and dry bone fracture morphology/characteristics. Most observed fractures are post-depositional, but those in the right upper limb of the adult hominin strongly indicate active resistance to an impact, while those in the juvenile hominin mandible are consistent with a blow to the face. The presence of skeletal trauma independently supports the falling hypothesis and supplies the first evidence for the manner of death of an australopith in the fossil record that is not attributed to predation or natural death

Cognitive behaviour therapy response and dropout rate across purging and nonpurging bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder : DSM-5 implications

Background: With the imminent publication of the new edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), there has been a growing interest in the study of the boundaries across the three bulimic spectrum syndromes [bulimia nervosa-purging type (BN-P), bulimia nervosa-non purging type (BN-NP) and binge eating disorder (BED)]. Therefore, the aims of this study were to determine differences in treatment response and dropout rates following Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) across the three bulimic-spectrum syndromes. Method: The sample comprised of 454 females (87 BED, 327 BN-P and 40 BN-NP) diagnosed according to DSM-IV-TR criteria who were treated with 22 weekly outpatient sessions of group CBT therapy. Patients were assessed before and after treatment using a food and binging/purging diary and some clinical questionnaires in the field of ED. "Full remission" was defined as total absence of binging and purging (laxatives and/or vomiting) behaviors and psychological improvement for at least 4 (consecutive). Results: Full remission rate was found to be significantly higher in BED (69.5%) than in both BN-P (p < 0.005) and BN-NP (p < 0.001), which presented no significant differences between them (30.9% and 35.5%). The rate of dropout from group CBT was also higher in BED (33.7%) than in BN-P (p < 0.001) and BN-NP (p < 0.05), which were similar (15.4% and 12.8%, respectively). Conclusions: Results suggest that purging and non-purging BN have similar treatment response and dropping out rates, whereas BED appears as a separate diagnosis with better outcome for those who complete treatment. The results support the proposed new DSM-5 classification

Lateral adhesion drives reintegration of misplaced cells into epithelial monolayers.

Cells in simple epithelia orient their mitotic spindles in the plane of the epithelium so that both daughter cells are born within the epithelial sheet. This is assumed to be important to maintain epithelial integrity and prevent hyperplasia, because misaligned divisions give rise to cells outside the epithelium. Here we test this assumption in three types of Drosophila epithelium; the cuboidal follicle epithelium, the columnar early embryonic ectoderm, and the pseudostratified neuroepithelium. Ectopic expression of Inscuteable in these tissues reorients mitotic spindles, resulting in one daughter cell being born outside the epithelial layer. Live imaging reveals that these misplaced cells reintegrate into the tissue. Reducing the levels of the lateral homophilic adhesion molecules Neuroglian or Fasciclin 2 disrupts reintegration, giving rise to extra-epithelial cells, whereas disruption of adherens junctions has no effect. Thus, the reinsertion of misplaced cells seems to be driven by lateral adhesion, which pulls cells born outside the epithelial layer back into it. Our findings reveal a robust mechanism that protects epithelia against the consequences of misoriented divisions.The authors are grateful to R. Nieuwburg, the St Johnston group, and other Gurdon Institute members for suggestions. We thank the Bloomington Stock Center, J. Knoblich, and the TRiP at Harvard Medical School (NIH/NIGMS R01-GM084947) for fly stocks. We thank N. Lowe for technical assistance. This work was supported by a Wellcome Trust Principal Fellowship to D.St.J. (080007), and by core support from the Wellcome Trust (092096) and Cancer Research UK (A14492). D.T.B. was supported by a Marie Curie Fellowship and the Wellcome Trust. H.E.L. was supported by a Herchel Smith Studentship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncb324