108 research outputs found

    Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks : results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

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    © 2009 The Authors. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 6 (2009): 2099-2120, doi:10.5194/bg-6-2099-2009Inclusion of fundamental ecological interactions between carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land component of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) leads to decreased carbon uptake associated with CO2 fertilization, and increased carbon uptake associated with warming of the climate system. The balance of these two opposing effects is to reduce the fraction of anthropogenic CO2 predicted to be sequestered in land ecosystems. The primary mechanism responsible for increased land carbon storage under radiatively forced climate change is shown to be fertilization of plant growth by increased mineralization of nitrogen directly associated with increased decomposition of soil organic matter under a warming climate, which in this particular model results in a negative gain for the climate-carbon feedback. Estimates for the land and ocean sink fractions of recent anthropogenic emissions are individually within the range of observational estimates, but the combined land plus ocean sink fractions produce an airborne fraction which is too high compared to observations. This bias is likely due in part to an underestimation of the ocean sink fraction. Our results show a significant growth in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the coming century, attributable in part to a steady decline in the ocean sink fraction. Comparison to experimental studies on the fate of radio-labeled nitrogen tracers in temperate forests indicates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions, and a stronger positive growth response to warming in those regions, than predicted by a similar AOGCM implemented without land carbon-nitrogen interactions. We expect that the between-model uncertainty in predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated anthropogenic climate change will be reduced as additional climate models introduce carbon-nitrogen cycle interactions in their land components.This work was supported in part by NASA Earth Science Enterprise, Terrestrial Ecology Program, grant #W19,953 to P. E. Thornton. Support was provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) through the NCAR Community Climate System Modeling program, and through the NCAR Biogeosciences program. Additional support was provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. I. Fung, S. Doney, N. Mahowald, and J. Randerson acknowledge support from National Science Foundation, Atmospheric Sciences Division, through the Carbon and Water Initiative

    Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

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    Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997–2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000–2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions

    Lyapunov-Based Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized Multi-Agent Control

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    Decentralized multi-agent control has broad applications, ranging from multi-robot cooperation to distributed sensor networks. In decentralized multi-agent control, systems are complex with unknown or highly uncertain dynamics, where traditional model-based control methods can hardly be applied. Compared with model-based control in control theory, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is promising to learn the controller/policy from data without the knowing system dynamics. However, to directly apply DRL to decentralized multi-agent control is challenging, as interactions among agents make the learning environment non-stationary. More importantly, the existing multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms cannot ensure the closed-loop stability of a multi-agent system from a control-theoretic perspective, so the learned control polices are highly possible to generate abnormal or dangerous behaviors in real applications. Hence, without stability guarantee, the application of the existing MARL algorithms to real multi-agent systems is of great concern, e.g., UAVs, robots, and power systems, etc. In this paper, we aim to propose a new MARL algorithm for decentralized multi-agent control with a stability guarantee. The new MARL algorithm, termed as a multi-agent soft-actor critic (MASAC), is proposed under the well-known framework of "centralized-training-with-decentralized-execution". The closed-loop stability is guaranteed by the introduction of a stability constraint during the policy improvement in our MASAC algorithm. The stability constraint is designed based on Lyapunov's method in control theory. To demonstrate the effectiveness, we present a multi-agent navigation example to show the efficiency of the proposed MASAC algorithm.Comment: Accepted to The 2nd International Conference on Distributed Artificial Intelligenc

    The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

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    A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux

    Cooperative Sentry Vehicles And Differential GPS Leapfrog

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    As part of a project for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Sandia National Laboratories Intelligent Systems and Robotics Center is developing and testing the feasibility of using a cooperative team of robotic sentry vehicles to guard a perimeter, perform a surround task, and travel extended distances. This paper describes the authors most recent activities. In particular, this paper highlights the development of a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) leapfrog capability that allows two or more vehicles to alternate sending DGPS corrections. Using this leapfrog technique, this paper shows that a group of autonomous vehicles can travel 22.68 kilometers with a root mean square positioning error of only 5 meters

    Climatic regions as an indicator of forest coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in the United States

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Coarse and fine woody debris are substantial forest ecosystem carbon stocks; however, there is a lack of understanding how these detrital carbon stocks vary across forested landscapes. Because forest woody detritus production and decay rates may partially depend on climatic conditions, the accumulation of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in forests may be correlated with climate. This study used a nationwide inventory of coarse and fine woody debris in the United States to examine how these carbon stocks vary by climatic regions and variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean coarse and fine woody debris forest carbon stocks vary by Köppen's climatic regions across the United States. The highest carbon stocks were found in regions with cool summers while the lowest carbon stocks were found in arid desert/steppes or temperate humid regions. Coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks were found to be positively correlated with available moisture and negatively correlated with maximum temperature.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It was concluded with only medium confidence that coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks may be at risk of becoming net emitter of carbon under a global climate warming scenario as increases in coarse or fine woody debris production (sinks) may be more than offset by increases in forest woody detritus decay rates (emission). Given the preliminary results of this study and the rather tenuous status of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks as either a source or sink of CO<sub>2</sub>, further research is suggested in the areas of forest detritus decay and production.</p
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