Shifting baseline in macroecology? Unraveling the influence of human impact on mammalian body mass

Aim Human activities have led to hundreds of species extinctions and have narrowed the distribution of many of the remaining species. These changes influence our understanding of global macroecological patterns, but their effects have been rarely explored. One of these patterns, the Bergmann’s rule, has been largely investigated in macroecology, but often under the assumption that observed patterns reflect “natural” processes. We assessed the extent to which humans have re-shaped the observable patterns of body mass distribution in terrestrial mammals, and how this has altered the macroecological baseline. Location Global Methods Using a comprehensive set of ecological, climatic, and anthropogenic variables we tested several alternative hypotheses to explain the body mass pattern observed in terrestrial mammals assemblages at a 1-degree resolution. We then explored how model predictions and the Bergmann’s latitudinal pattern are affected by the inclusion of human impact variables, and identified areas where predicted body mass differs from the expected due to human impact. Results Our model suggests that median and maximum body mass predicted in grid cells would be higher, and skewness in local mass distributions reduced, if human impacts were minimal, especially in areas that are highly accessible to humans and where natural land cover has been converted for human activities. Main conclusions Our study provides evidence of the pervasive effects of anthropogenic impact on nature, and shows human-induced distortion of global macroecological patterns. This extends the notion of “shifting baseline”, suggesting that when the first macroecological investigations started, our understanding of global geographic patterns was based on a situation which was already compromised. While in the short term human impact is causing species decline and extinction, in the long term it is causing a broad re-shaping of animal communities with yet unpredicted ecological implications

Trophic rewilding presents regionally specific opportunities for mitigating climate change

Large-bodied mammalian herbivores can influence processes that exacerbate or mitigate climate change. Herbivore impacts are, in turn, influenced by predators that place top-down forcing on prey species within a given body size range. Here, we explore how the functional composition of terrestrial large herbivore and carnivore guilds vary between three mammal distribution scenarios: Present-Natural, Current-Day, and Extant-Native Trophic (ENT) Rewilding. Considering the effects of herbivore species weakly influenced by top-down forcing, we quantify the relative influence keystone large herbivore guilds have on methane emissions, woody vegetation expansion, fire dynamics, large-seed dispersal, and nitrogen and phosphorous transport potential. We find strong regional differences in the number of herbivores under weak top-down regulation between our three scenarios with important implications for how they will influence climate change relevant processes. Under the Present-Natural non-ruminant, megaherbivore, browsers were a particularly important guild across much of the world. Megaherbivore extinction and range contraction and the arrival of livestock means large, ruminant, grazers have become more dominant. ENT Rewilding can restore the Afrotropics and Indo-Malay to the Present-Natural benchmark, but causes top-down forcing of the largest herbivores to become common place elsewhere. ENT Rewilding will reduce methane emissions, but does not maximise Natural Climate Solution potential

Individual fitness is decoupled from coarse‐scale probability of occurrence in North American trees

Habitat suitability estimated with probability of occurrence in species distribution models (SDMs) is used in conservation to identify geographic areas that are most likely to harbor individuals of interest. In theory, probability of occurrence is coupled with individual fitness so that individuals have higher fitness at the centre of their species environmental niche than at the edges, which we here define as 'fitness‐centre' hypothesis. However, such relationship is uncertain and has been rarely tested across multiple species. Here, we quantified the relationship between coarse‐scale probability of occurrence projected with SDMs and individual fitness in 66 tree species native of North America. We used 1) field data of individuals' growth rate (height and diameter standardized by age) available from the United States Forest Inventory Analysis plots; and 2) common garden data collected from 23 studies reporting individual growth rate, survival, height and diameter of individuals originated from different provenances in United States and Canada. We show 'fitness–centre' relationships are rare, with only 12% and 11% of cases showing a significant positive correlation for field and common garden data, respectively. Furthermore, we found the 'fitness–centre' relationship is not affected by the precision of the SDMs and it does not depend upon dispersal ability and climatic breath of the species. Thus, although the 'fitness–centre' relationship is supported by theory, it does not hold true in nearly any species. Because individual fitness plays a relevant role in buffering local extinction and range contraction following climatic changes and biotic invasions, our results encourage conservationists not to assume the 'fitness–centre' relationship when modelling species distribution

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