Trend Analysis of Teenage Pregnancy in Nigeria (1961-2013): How Effective is the Contraceptive Use Campaign

Teenage pregnancy (TP) is a recurrent global and public health problem. It poses both social and health challenges. Considering the massive campaign on the use of modern contraceptives to prevent TP in recent decades, we assessed trends in TP in Nigeria between 1961 and 2013. Pregnancy and contraception history of 70,811 women who were at least 20 years old when the Nigerian DHS was conducted in 1990, 2003, 2008, and 2013 respectively were used for the study, and descriptive statistics, time analysis techniques and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze the data at 5% significance level. The overall prevalence of TP between 1961 and 2013 was 49.5% which fluctuated insignificantly during the studied period. The TP prevalence among women who entered adulthood in 1961 was 39.2%; it peaked in 1978 at 58.9% before its unsteady decline to 39.6% in 2012, and then rose sharply to 55.6% in 2013. We predicted TP prevalence as 49.0%, 49.9% and 51.0% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. The odds of TP were over 4 times higher in the North East and 5 times higher in the North West than in the South West. Teenagers with no education had higher odds of TP and it was higher among teenagers from the poorest households (OR=5.64, 95% CI: 5.36-5.94). Rather than reducing with the worldwide acknowledged increase in contraceptive campaigns, TP increased over the years studied. As far as TP is concerned in Nigeria, the impact of the campaign on MC use is far from being effective. To achieve the objective of fewer TPs, fewer resources should be spent on access to contraception and instead diverted to areas more likely to achieve results such as improvements in educational achievement amongst girls

Gender variation in self-reported likelihood of HIV infection in comparison with HIV test results in rural and urban Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Behaviour change which is highly influenced by risk perception is a major challenge that HIV prevention efforts need to confront. In this study, we examined the validity of self-reported likelihood of HIV infection among rural and urban reproductive age group Nigerians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of Nigerians. We investigated the concordance between self-reported likelihood of HIV and actual results of HIV test. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess whether selected respondents' characteristics affect the validity of self-reports.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The HIV prevalence in the urban population was 3.8% (3.1% among males and 4.6% among females) and 3.5% in the rural areas (3.4% among males and 3.7% among females). Almost all the respondents who claimed they have high chances of being infected with HIV actually tested negative (91.6% in urban and 97.9% in rural areas). In contrast, only 8.5% in urban areas and 2.1% in rural areas, of those who claimed high chances of been HIV infected were actually HIV positive. About 2.9% and 4.3% from urban and rural areas respectively tested positive although they claimed very low chances of HIV infection. Age, gender, education and residence are factors associated with validity of respondents' self-perceived risk of HIV infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Self-perceived HIV risk is poorly sensitive and moderately specific in the prediction of HIV status. There are differences in the validity of self-perceived risk of HIV across rural and urban populations.</p

Shifts in age pattern, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility level across six regions of Nigeria: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys from 2003-2018.

Nigeria's population is projected to increase from 200 million in 2019 to 450 million in 2050 if the fertility level remains at the current level. Thus, we examined the shifts in the age pattern of fertility, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility levels from 2003 and 2018 across six regions of Nigeria. This study utilised the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Each survey was a cross-sectional population-based design, and a two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select women aged 15-49 years. The changes in the timing of childbearing were examined by calculating the corresponding mean ages at the birth of different birth orders for each birth order separately to adjust the Quantum effect for births. The Gompertz Relational Model was used to examine the age pattern of fertility and refined fertility level. In Nigeria, it was observed that there was a minimal decline in mean children ever born (CEB) between 2003 and 2018 across all maternal age groups except aged 20-24 years. The pattern of mean CEB by the age of mothers was the same across the Nigeria regions except in North West. Nigeria's mean number of CEB to women aged 40-49 in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 surveys was 6.7, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.1, respectively. The mean age (years) at first birth marginally increased from 21.3 in 2003 to 22.5 in 2018. In 2003, the mean age at first birth was highest in South East (24.3) and lowest in North East (19.4); while South West had the highest (24.4) and both North East and North West had the lowest (20.2) in 2018. Similar age patterns of fertility existed between 2003 and 2018 across the regions. Nigeria's estimated total fertility level for 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 was 6.1, 6.1, 5.9 and 5.7, respectively. The findings showed a reducing but slow fertility declines in Nigeria. The decline varied substantially across the regions. For a downward change in the level of fertility, policies that will constrict the spread of fertility distribution across the region in Nigeria must urgently be put in place. [Abstract copyright: Copyright: © 2023 Olowolafe et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

The Gamma log-logistic Weibull distribution: model, properties and application

In this paper, a new generalized distribution called the gamma log-logistic Weibull (GLLoGW) distribution is proposed and studied. The GLLoGW distribution include the gamma log-logistic, gamma log-logistic Rayleigh, gamma log logistic exponential, log-logistic Weibull, log-logistic Rayleigh, log-logistic exponential, log-logistic as well as other special cases as sub-models. Some mathematical properties of the new distribution including moments, conditional moments, mean and median deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, distribution of the order statistics and R\'enyi entropy are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the model parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation study to examine the bias and mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimators is presented and an application to real dataset to illustrate the usefulness of the model is given

Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria

The need for more pragmatic approaches to achieve sustainable development goal on childhood mortality reduction necessitated this study. Simultaneous study of the influence of where the children live and the censoring nature of children survival data is scarce. We identified the compositional and contextual factors associated with under-five (U5M) and infant (INM) mortality in Nigeria from 5 MCMC Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression models as approximations of the Cox survival regression model. The 2018 DHS data of 33,924 under-five children were used. Life table techniques and the Mlwin 3.05 module for the analysis of hierarchical data were implemented in Stata Version 16. The overall INM rate (INMR) was 70 per 1000 livebirths compared with U5M rate (U5MR) of 131 per 1000 livebirth. The INMR was lowest in Ogun (17 per 1000 live births) and highest in Kaduna (106), Gombe (112) and Kebbi (116) while the lowest U5MR was found in Ogun (29) and highest in Jigawa (212) and Kebbi (248). The risks of INM and U5M were highest among children with none/low maternal education, multiple births, low birthweight, short birth interval, poorer households, when spouses decide on healthcare access, having a big problem getting to a healthcare facility, high community illiteracy level, and from states with a high proportion of the rural population in the fully adjusted model. Compared with the null model, 81% vs 13% and 59% vs 35% of the total variation in INM and U5M were explained by the state- and neighbourhood-level factors respectively. Infant- and under-five mortality in Nigeria is influenced by compositional and contextual factors. The Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model used in estimating the factors associated with childhood deaths in Nigeria fitted the survival data.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Demystifying the factors associated with rural–urban gaps in severe acute malnutrition among under-five children in low- and middle-income countries: a decomposition analysis

What explains the underlying causes of rural–urban differentials in severe acute malnutrition (SAM) among under-five children is poorly exploited, operationalized, studied and understood in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). We decomposed the rural–urban inequalities in the associated factors of SAM while controlling for individual, household, and neighbourhood factors using datasets from successive demographic and health survey conducted between 2010 and 2018 in 51 LMIC. The data consisted of 532,680 under-five children nested within 55,823 neighbourhoods across the 51 countries. We applied the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition technique to quantify the contribution of various associated factors to the observed rural–urban disparities in SAM. In all, 69% of the children lived in rural areas, ranging from 16% in Gabon to 81% in Chad. The overall prevalence of SAM among rural children was 4.8% compared with 4.2% among urban children. SAM prevalence in rural areas was highest in Timor-Leste (11.1%) while the highest urban prevalence was in Honduras (8.5%). Nine countries had statistically significant pro-rural (significantly higher odds of SAM in rural areas) inequality while only Tajikistan and Malawi showed statistically significant pro-urban inequality (p < 0.05). Overall, neighbourhood socioeconomic status, wealth index, toilet types and sources of drinking water were the most significant contributors to pro-rural inequalities. Other contributors to the pro-rural inequalities are birth weight, maternal age and maternal education. Pro-urban inequalities were mostly affected by neighbourhood socioeconomic status and wealth index. Having SAM among under-five children was explained by the individual-, household- and neighbourhood-level factors. However, we found variations in the contributions of these factors. The rural–urban dichotomy in the prevalence of SAM was generally significant with higher odds found in the rural areas. Our findings suggest the need for urgent intervention on child nutrition in the rural areas of most LMIC

Drivers of long-lasting insecticide-treated net utilisation and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden in Nigeria

BACKGROUND: Although Nigeria has made some progress in malaria control, there are variations across States. We investigated the factors associated with utilisation of long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden. METHOD: Data from the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey and 2018 Demographic and Health Survey were obtained and analysed. The 2015 and 2018 data were compared to identify States with increase or reduction in parasitaemia. Analysis was done for all the 13 study States; four States with increased parasitaemia and nine States with reduction. Random-effects logit models were fitted to identify independent predictors of LLIN utilisation and parasitaemia. RESULTS: LLIN was used by 53.4% of 2844 children, while parasitaemia prevalence was 26.4% in 2018. Grandchildren (AOR = 5.35, CI: 1.09-26.19) were more likely to use LLIN while other relatives (AOR = 0.33, CI: 0.11-0.94) were less likely compared to children of household-heads. LLIN use was more common in children whose mother opined that only weak children could die from malaria (AOR = 1.83, CI: 1.10-3.10). Children whose mothers obtained net from antenatal or immunisation clinics (AOR = 5.30, CI: 2.32-12.14) and campaigns (AOR = 1.77, CI: 1.03-3.04) were also more likely to use LLIN. In contrast, LLIN utilisation was less likely among children in female-headed households (AOR = 0.51, CI: 0.27-0.99) and those in poor-quality houses (AOR = 0.25, CI: 0.09-0.72). Children aged 24-59 months compared to 0-11 months (AOR = 1.78, CI: 1.28-2.48), those in whom fever was reported (AOR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.63) and children of uneducated women (AOR = 1.89, CI: 1.32-2.70) were more likely to have parasitaemia. The likelihood of parasitaemia was higher among children from poor households compared to the rich (AOR = 2.06, CI: 1.24-3.42). The odds of parasitaemia were 98% higher among rural children (AOR = 1.98, CI: 1.37-2.87). CONCLUSION: The key drivers of LLIN utilisation were source of net and socioeconomic characteristics. The latter was also a key factor associated with parasitaemia. These should be targeted as part of integrated malaria elimination efforts

Shifts in age pattern, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility level across six regions of Nigeria: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys from 2003–2018

Background Nigeria’s population is projected to increase from 200 million in 2019 to 450 million in 2050 if the fertility level remains at the current level. Thus, we examined the shifts in the age pattern of fertility, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility levels from 2003 and 2018 across six regions of Nigeria. Method This study utilised the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Each survey was a cross-sectional population-based design, and a two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select women aged 15–49 years. The changes in the timing of childbearing were examined by calculating the corresponding mean ages at the birth of different birth orders for each birth order separately to adjust the Quantum effect for births. The Gompertz Relational Model was used to examine the age pattern of fertility and refined fertility level. Result In Nigeria, it was observed that there was a minimal decline in mean children ever born (CEB) between 2003 and 2018 across all maternal age groups except aged 20–24 years. The pattern of mean CEB by the age of mothers was the same across the Nigeria regions except in North West. Nigeria’s mean number of CEB to women aged 40–49 in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 surveys was 6.7, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.1, respectively. The mean age (years) at first birth marginally increased from 21.3 in 2003 to 22.5 in 2018. In 2003, the mean age at first birth was highest in South East (24.3) and lowest in North East (19.4); while South West had the highest (24.4) and both North East and North West had the lowest (20.2) in 2018. Similar age patterns of fertility existed between 2003 and 2018 across the regions. Nigeria’s estimated total fertility level for 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 was 6.1, 6.1, 5.9 and 5.7, respectively. Conclusion The findings showed a reducing but slow fertility declines in Nigeria. The decline varied substantially across the regions. For a downward change in the level of fertility, policies that will constrict the spread of fertility distribution across the region in Nigeria must urgently be put in place

The Financial Burden of Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Rural Nigeria: Wealth and Gender Heterogeneity in Health Care Utilization and Health Expenditures

Objectives Better insights into health care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCCD) are needed to develop accessible health care and limit the increasing financial burden of NCCDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A household survey was conducted in rural Kwara State, Nigeria, among 5,761 individuals. Data were obtained using biomedical and socio-economic questionnaires. Health care utilization, NCCD-related health expenditures and distances to health care providers were compared by sex and by wealth quintile, and a Heckman regression model was used to estimate health expenditures taking selection bias in health care utilization into account. Results The prevalence of NCCDs in our sample was 6.2%. NCCD-affected individuals from the wealthiest quintile utilized formal health care nearly twice as often as those from the lowest quintile (87.8% vs 46.2%, p = 0.002). Women reported foregone formal care more often than men (43.5% vs. 27.0%, p = 0.058). Health expenditures relative to annual consumption of the poorest quintile exceeded those of the highest quintile 2.2-fold, and the poorest quintile exhibited a higher rate of catastrophic health spending (10.8% among NCCD-affected households) than the three upper quintiles (4.2% to 6.7%). Long travel distances to the nearest provider, highest for the poorest quintile, were a significant deterrent to seeking care. Using distance to the nearest facility as instrument to account for selection into health care utilization, we estimated out-of-pocket health care expenditures for NCCDs to be significantly higher in the lowest wealth quintile compared to the three upper quintiles. Conclusions Facing potentially high health care costs and poor accessibility of health care facilities, many individuals suffering from NCCDs—particularly women and the poor—forego formal care, thereby increasing the risk of more severe illness in the future. When seeking care, the poor spend less on treatment than the rich, suggestive of lower quality care, while their expenditures represent a higher share of their annual household consumption. This calls for targeted interventions that enhance health care accessibility and provide financial protection from the consequences of NCCDs, especially for vulnerable populations

Academic student satisfaction and perceived performance in the e-learning environment during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence across ten countries

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shaped higher education and seen the distinct rise of e-learning as a compulsory element of the modern educational landscape. Accordingly, this study highlights the factors which have influenced how students perceive their academic performance during this emergency changeover to e-learning. The empirical analysis is performed on a sample of 10,092 higher education students from 10 countries across 4 continents during the pandemic’s first wave through an online survey. A structural equation model revealed the quality of e-learning was mainly derived from service quality, the teacher’s active role in the process of online education, and the overall system quality, while the students’ digital competencies and online interactions with their colleagues and teachers were considered to be slightly less important factors. The impact of e-learning quality on the students’ performance was strongly mediated by their satisfaction with e-learning. In general, the model gave quite consistent results across countries, gender, study fields, and levels of study. The findings provide a basis for policy recommendations to support decision-makers incorporate e-learning issues in the current and any new similar circumstances.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio