The asymmetric unemployment response of natives and foreigners to migration shocks

This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of net migration shocks in Germany. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2019 and a variety of identification strategies in a structural vector autoregressive model, we show that migration shocks are expansionary. Net migration increases persistently industrial production, per capita net exports and tax revenue. In the labor market, migration boosts persistently job openings and, after a year and a half, hourly wages in manufacturing. Total unemployment declines but the response is asymmetric between natives and foreigners. Unemployment falls persistently for natives while it rises a year after the shock for foreigners as the newly settled migrants enter the labor market gradually. Using also quarterly data in a mixed-frequency SVAR, we shed light on the employment and participation responses for natives and foreigners. We also show that migration shocks increase per capita GDP, investment, and hourly wages of the aggregate economy. Taken together, our results highlight a job-creation effect for natives and a job-competition effect for foreigners

Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence

Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after 2000 and have contributed substantially to deepening the recessions of 2001 and 2008. The evidence is obtained using a new econometric procedure based on a Vector Moving Average representation that includes a nonlinear function of the financial shock. This method is a contribution of the present work

Role of magnetic resonance in characterising extrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of magnetic resonance (MR) in correctly locating and characterising biliary strictures in patients affected by extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, identify findings suggestive of the disease, identify lesions with similar MR features and possible criteria for differential diagnosis and establish prospective MR accuracy in diagnosis of malignant obstruction of extrahepatic bile ducts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the MR examinations of 39 patients affected by extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma confirmed by histology or cytology. The studies were evaluated for the following parameters: site of obstruction (hilar, proximal or distal), presence of intra- or extrahepatic dilation of bile ducts, morphology of ductal stenosis (gradual tapering or abrupt ending), morphology of the lesion (mass like or circumferential), dimension, signal intensity before contrast medium administration and lesion enhancement after administration of contrast medium. Finally, we assessed the most useful sequence for the diagnosis. In order to evaluate MR accuracy in the diagnosis of malignant obstruction of extrahepatic bile ducts, we prospectively reviewed MR examinations of 74 patients affected by obstructive jaundice (55 malignant lesions and 19 inflammatory lesions). MR diagnosis was compared with histology or cytology considered as the gold standard. RESULTS: MR allowed identification and localisation of 41/41 extrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Fifty-four percent of the lesions showed gradual duct tapering; the remaining lesions showed an abrupt ending. Fifty-six percent of the lesions appeared as a circumferential thickening (infiltrative growth); the remaining lesions had a mass-like appearance (expansile growth). Most lesions were hypo- (49%) or isointense (49%) in T1-weighted sequences and hyper- (49%) or isointense (51%) in T2-weighted sequences. Ninety-five percent of the lesions did not enhance significantly in the arterial phase while 98% showed late enhancement (10 min). The most diagnostic sequence (in 76% of cases) was the late-phase gradient-echo (GRE) T1 fat-saturated sequence. MR had good sensitivity (91%) but poor specificity (47%) in characterising stenosis as malignant, given the large number (10/19) of benign lesions evaluated as neoplastic lesions. CONCLUSIONS: MR almost always identified the cause of stenosis and suggested its neoplastic nature if it exhibited a mass-like appearance (extraductal or growing into the choledochus). On the other hand, lesions with parietal thickening, particularly if smaller than 1 cm, require endoscopic cytology or histology because of the high risk of unnecessary procedures for benign lesions

The Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Supernova Survey: II. The Type Ia Supernova Rate in High-Redshift Galaxy Clusters

We report a measurement of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) rate in galaxy clusters at 0.9 < z < 1.45 from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Cluster Supernova Survey. This is the first cluster SN Ia rate measurement with detected z > 0.9 SNe. Finding 8 +/- 1 cluster SNe Ia, we determine a SN Ia rate of 0.50 +0.23-0.19 (stat) +0.10-0.09 (sys) SNuB (SNuB = 10^-12 SNe L_{sun,B}^-1 yr^-1). In units of stellar mass, this translates to 0.36 +0.16-0.13 (stat) +0.07-0.06 (sys) SNuM (SNuM = 10^-12 SNe M_sun^-1 yr^-1). This represents a factor of approximately 5 +/- 2 increase over measurements of the cluster rate at z < 0.2. We parameterize the late-time SN Ia delay time distribution with a power law (proportional to t^s). Under the assumption of a cluster formation redshift of z_f = 3, our rate measurement in combination with lower-redshift cluster SN Ia rates constrains s = -1.41 +0.47/-0.40, consistent with measurements of the delay time distribution in the field. This measurement is generally consistent with expectations for the "double degenerate" scenario and inconsistent with some models for the "single degenerate" scenario predicting a steeper delay time distribution at large delay times. We check for environmental dependence and the influence of younger stellar populations by calculating the rate specifically in cluster red-sequence galaxies and in morphologically early-type galaxies, finding results similar to the full cluster rate. Finally, the upper limit of one host-less cluster SN Ia detected in the survey implies that the fraction of stars in the intra-cluster medium is less than 0.47 (95% confidence), consistent with measurements at lower redshifts.Comment: 29 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ on 16 February 2011. See the HST Cluster Supernova Survey website at http://supernova.lbl.gov/2009ClusterSurvey for a version with full-resolution images and a complete listing of transient candidates from the survey. This version fixes a typo in the metadata; the paper is unchanged from v

The Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Supernova Survey: VI. The Volumetric Type Ia Supernova Rate

We present a measurement of the volumetric Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) rate out to z ~ 1.6 from the Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Supernova Survey. In observations spanning 189 orbits with the Advanced Camera for Surveys we discovered 29 SNe, of which approximately 20 are SNe Ia. Twelve of these SNe Ia are located in the foregrounds and backgrounds of the clusters targeted in the survey. Using these new data, we derive the volumetric SN Ia rate in four broad redshift bins, finding results consistent with previous measurements at z > 1 and strengthening the case for a SN Ia rate that is equal to or greater than ~0.6 x 10^-4/yr/Mpc^3 at z ~ 1 and flattening out at higher redshift. We provide SN candidates and efficiency calculations in a form that makes it easy to rebin and combine these results with other measurements for increased statistics. Finally, we compare the assumptions about host-galaxy dust extinction used in different high-redshift rate measurements, finding that different assumptions may induce significant systematic differences between measurements.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to the Astrophysical Journal. Revised version following referee comments. See the HST Cluster SN Survey website at http://supernova.lbl.gov/2009ClusterSurvey for control time simulations in a machine-readable table and a complete listing of transient candidates from the surve

The USe of pac1 Gene from Schizosaccaromyces pombe to Protect Potato from Potato virus Y (PVY) and Potato X (PVX) Infections

The effect that pac1, a yeast-derived ds-RNA specific RNase gene, has on Potato virus X (PVX) and on Potato virus Y (PVY) infections in potato was investigated. Tuber disks of cv. Desirée were transformed with LB4404 Agrobacterium tumefaciens carrying a modified PBI121 binary vector in which the transgene replaced GUS. Transformed plantlets were tested for possible acquired resistance by inoculation with purified virus suspensions at different concentrations and were ELISA-tested for virus content 40 days later. Plants of two clones had a significantly lower PVX content (66 to 75% that of the control, respectively), when inoculated with a 1 µg ml-1 suspension of the virus. One of these clones showed also a reduced PVY accumulation (41% that of the control), when inoculated with a 10 µg ml-1 suspension of this virus. Results demonstrated the practical utility of the pac1 gene for countering potato virus infections

Orbital Angular Momentum Parton Distributions in Light-Front Dynamics

We study the quark angular momentum distribution in the nucleon within a light-front covariant quark model. Special emphasis is put into the orbital angular momentum: a quantity which is very sensitive to the relativistic treatment of the spin in a light-front dynamical approach. Discrepancies with the predictions of the low-energy traditional quark models where relativistic spin effects are neglected, are visible also after perturbative evolution to higher momentum scales. Orbital angular momentum distributions and their contribution to the spin sum rule are calculated for different phenomenological mass operators and compared with the results of the MIT bag model.Comment: 14 pages; latex; 3 ps figure

Reducing Zero-point Systematics in Dark Energy Supernova Experiments

We study the effect of filter zero-point uncertainties on future supernova dark energy missions. Fitting for calibration parameters using simultaneous analysis of all Type Ia supernova standard candles achieves a significant improvement over more traditional fit methods. This conclusion is robust under diverse experimental configurations (number of observed supernovae, maximum survey redshift, inclusion of additional systematics). This approach to supernova fitting considerably eases otherwise stringent mission calibration requirements. As an example we simulate a space-based mission based on the proposed JDEM satellite; however the method and conclusions are general and valid for any future supernova dark energy mission, ground or space-based.Comment: 30 pages,8 figures, 5 table, one reference added, submitted to Astroparticle Physic

Seismic risk in the city of Al Hoceima (north of Morocco) using the vulnerability index method, applied in Risk-UE project

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2566-8Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A Calibration of NICMOS Camera 2 for Low Count-Rates

NICMOS 2 observations are crucial for constraining distances to most of the existing sample of z > 1 SNe Ia. Unlike the conventional calibration programs, these observations involve long exposure times and low count rates. Reciprocity failure is known to exist in HgCdTe devices and a correction for this effect has already been implemented for high and medium count-rates. However observations at faint count-rates rely on extrapolations. Here instead, we provide a new zeropoint calibration directly applicable to faint sources. This is obtained via inter-calibration of NIC2 F110W/F160W with WFC3 in the low count-rate regime using z ~ 1 elliptical galaxies as tertiary calibrators. These objects have relatively simple near-IR SEDs, uniform colors, and their extended nature gives superior signal-to-noise at the same count rate than would stars. The use of extended objects also allows greater tolerances on PSF profiles. We find ST magnitude zeropoints (after the installation of the NICMOS cooling system, NCS) of 25.296 +- 0.022 for F110W and 25.803 +- 0.023 for F160W, both in agreement with the calibration extrapolated from count-rates 1,000 times larger (25.262 and 25.799). Before the installation of the NCS, we find 24.843 +- 0.025 for F110W and 25.498 +- 0.021 for F160W, also in agreement with the high-count-rate calibration (24.815 and 25.470). We also check the standard bandpasses of WFC3 and NICMOS 2 using a range of stars and galaxies at different colors and find mild tension for WFC3, limiting the accuracy of the zeropoints. To avoid human bias, our cross-calibration was "blinded" in that the fitted zeropoint differences were hidden until the analysis was finalized.Comment: Accepted for Publication in the Astronomical Journal. New version contains added referenc