Terminal valuations, growth rates and the implied cost of capital

This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe develop a model based on the notion that prices lead earnings, allowing for a simultaneous estimation of the implied growth rate and the cost of equity capital for US industrial sectors. The major difference between our approach and that in prior literature is that ours avoids the necessity to make assumptions about terminal values and consequently about future growth rates. In fact, growth rates are an endogenous variable, which is estimated simultaneously with the implied cost of equity capital. Since we require only 1-year-ahead forecasts of earnings and no assumptions about dividend payouts, our methodology allows us to estimate ex ante aggregate growth and risk premia over a larger sample of firms than has previously been possible. Our estimate of the risk premium being between 3.1 and 3.9 % is at the lower end of recent estimates, reflecting the inclusion of these short-lived companies. Our estimate of the long run growth is from 4.2 to 4.7 %

Controlling liver cancer internationally: A qualitative study of clinicians' perceptions of current public policy needs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Liver cancer is the fifth most common cancer in men and the seventh for women. Usually because of late diagnosis, the prognosis for liver cancer remains poor, resulting in liver cancer being the third most common cause of death from cancer. While some countries have treatment guidelines, little is known or understood about the strategies needed for liver cancer control internationally.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To explore leading liver cancer clinician's perceptions of the current public policy needs to control liver cancer internationally.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Key informant interviews were conducted with a range of liver cancer clinicians involved in policy in eleven countries. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, translated (where necessary), de-identified and analyzed by two researchers using a constant comparative method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted in: Australia, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey and the United States. Nine themes were identified and cluster into three groups: 1) Promoting prevention via early risk assessment, focusing on viral hepatitis and other lifestyle factors; 2) Increasing political, public and medical community awareness; and 3) Improving funding for screening, liver cancer surveillance and treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study is an important step towards developing an evidence-based approach to assessing preparedness for implementing comprehensive liver cancer control strategies. Evaluation mechanisms to assess countries' performance on the needs described are needed. Future research will concentrate of understanding how these needs vary across countries and the optimal strategies to improve the diagnosis and prognosis of patients with liver cancer internationally.</p

Quantitative Modeling of Cerenkov Light Production Efficiency from Medical Radionuclides

There has been recent and growing interest in applying Cerenkov radiation (CR) for biological applications. Knowledge of the production efficiency and other characteristics of the CR produced by various radionuclides would help in accessing the feasibility of proposed applications and guide the choice of radionuclides. To generate this information we developed models of CR production efficiency based on the Frank-Tamm equation and models of CR distribution based on Monte-Carlo simulations of photon and β particle transport. All models were validated against direct measurements using multiple radionuclides and then applied to a number of radionuclides commonly used in biomedical applications. We show that two radionuclides, Ac-225 and In-111, which have been reported to produce CR in water, do not in fact produce CR directly. We also propose a simple means of using this information to calibrate high sensitivity luminescence imaging systems and show evidence suggesting that this calibration may be more accurate than methods in routine current use

Skin color-specific and spectrally-selective naked-eye dosimetry of UVA, B and C radiations

Spectrally–selective monitoring of ultraviolet radiations (UVR) is of paramount importance across diverse fields, including effective monitoring of excessive solar exposure. Current UV sensors cannot differentiate between UVA, B, and C, each of which has a remarkably different impact on human health. Here we show spectrally selective colorimetric monitoring of UVR by developing a photoelectrochromic ink that consists of a multi-redox polyoxometalate and an e− donor. We combine this ink with simple components such as filter paper and transparency sheets to fabricate low-cost sensors that provide naked-eye monitoring of UVR, even at low doses typically encountered during solar exposure. Importantly, the diverse UV tolerance of different skin colors demands personalized sensors. In this spirit, we demonstrate the customized design of robust real-time solar UV dosimeters to meet the specific need of different skin phototypes. These spectrally–selective UV sensors offer remarkable potential in managing the impact of UVR in our day-to-day life

Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the european scleroderma trials and research (eustar) cohort

Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS &gt;5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p&lt;0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). Conclusions Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice

Effects of alirocumab on types of myocardial infarction: insights from the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial

Aims  The third Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) Task Force classified MIs into five types: Type 1, spontaneous; Type 2, related to oxygen supply/demand imbalance; Type 3, fatal without ascertainment of cardiac biomarkers; Type 4, related to percutaneous coronary intervention; and Type 5, related to coronary artery bypass surgery. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction with statins and proprotein convertase subtilisin–kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors reduces risk of MI, but less is known about effects on types of MI. ODYSSEY OUTCOMES compared the PCSK9 inhibitor alirocumab with placebo in 18 924 patients with recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and elevated LDL-C (≥1.8 mmol/L) despite intensive statin therapy. In a pre-specified analysis, we assessed the effects of alirocumab on types of MI. Methods and results  Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Myocardial infarction types were prospectively adjudicated and classified. Of 1860 total MIs, 1223 (65.8%) were adjudicated as Type 1, 386 (20.8%) as Type 2, and 244 (13.1%) as Type 4. Few events were Type 3 (n = 2) or Type 5 (n = 5). Alirocumab reduced first MIs [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.95; P = 0.003], with reductions in both Type 1 (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77–0.99; P = 0.032) and Type 2 (0.77, 0.61–0.97; P = 0.025), but not Type 4 MI. Conclusion  After ACS, alirocumab added to intensive statin therapy favourably impacted on Type 1 and 2 MIs. The data indicate for the first time that a lipid-lowering therapy can attenuate the risk of Type 2 MI. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction below levels achievable with statins is an effective preventive strategy for both MI types.For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehz299</p