Titan Science with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), scheduled for launch in 2018, is the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) but with a significantly larger aperture (6.5 m) and advanced instrumentation focusing on infrared science (0.6-28.0 $\mu$m ). In this paper we examine the potential for scientific investigation of Titan using JWST, primarily with three of the four instruments: NIRSpec, NIRCam and MIRI, noting that science with NIRISS will be complementary. Five core scientific themes are identified: (i) surface (ii) tropospheric clouds (iii) tropospheric gases (iv) stratospheric composition and (v) stratospheric hazes. We discuss each theme in depth, including the scientific purpose, capabilities and limitations of the instrument suite, and suggested observing schemes. We pay particular attention to saturation, which is a problem for all three instruments, but may be alleviated for NIRCam through use of selecting small sub-arrays of the detectors - sufficient to encompass Titan, but with significantly faster read-out times. We find that JWST has very significant potential for advancing Titan science, with a spectral resolution exceeding the Cassini instrument suite at near-infrared wavelengths, and a spatial resolution exceeding HST at the same wavelengths. In particular, JWST will be valuable for time-domain monitoring of Titan, given a five to ten year expected lifetime for the observatory, for example monitoring the seasonal appearance of clouds. JWST observations in the post-Cassini period will complement those of other large facilities such as HST, ALMA, SOFIA and next-generation ground-based telescopes (TMT, GMT, EELT).Comment: 50 pages, including 22 figures and 2 table

Science Overview of the Europa Clipper Mission

The goal of NASA’s Europa Clipper mission is to assess the habitability of Jupiter’s moon Europa. After entering Jupiter orbit in 2030, the flight system will collect science data while flying past Europa 49 times at typical closest approach distances of 25–100 km. The mission’s objectives are to investigate Europa’s interior (ice shell and ocean), composition, and geology; the mission will also search for and characterize any current activity including possible plumes. The science objectives will be accomplished with a payload consisting of remote sensing and in-situ instruments. Remote sensing investigations cover the ultraviolet, visible, near infrared, and thermal infrared wavelength ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum, as well as an ice-penetrating radar. In-situ investigations measure the magnetic field, dust grains, neutral gas, and plasma surrounding Europa. Gravity science will be achieved using the telecommunication system, and a radiation monitoring engineering subsystem will provide complementary science data. The flight system is designed to enable all science instruments to operate and gather data simultaneously. Mission planning and operations are guided by scientific requirements and observation strategies, while appropriate updates to the plan will be made tactically as the instruments and Europa are characterized and discoveries emerge. Following collection and validation, all science data will be archived in NASA’s Planetary Data System. Communication, data sharing, and publication policies promote visibility, collaboration, and mutual interdependence across the full Europa Clipper science team, to best achieve the interdisciplinary science necessary to understand Europa

A preliminary randomized double blind placebo-controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin for Japanese encephalitis in Nepal

BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus (JEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus found across Asia that is closely related to West Nile virus. There is no known antiviral treatment for any flavivirus. Results from in vitro studies and animal models suggest intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) containing virus-specific neutralizing antibody may be effective in improving outcome in viral encephalitis. IVIG's anti-inflammatory properties may also be beneficial. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a pilot feasibility randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of IVIG containing anti-JEV neutralizing antibody (ImmunoRel, 400mg/kg/day for 5 days) in children with suspected JE at two sites in Nepal; we also examined the effect on serum neutralizing antibody titre and cytokine profiles. 22 children were recruited, 13 of whom had confirmed JE; 11 received IVIG and 11 placebo, with no protocol violations. One child (IVIG group) died during treatment and two (placebo) subsequently following hospital discharge. Overall, there was no difference in outcome between treatment groups at discharge or follow up. Passive transfer of anti-JEV antibody was seen in JEV negative children. JEV positive children treated with IVIG had JEV-specific neutralizing antibody titres approximately 16 times higher than those treated with placebo (p=0.2), which was more than could be explained by passive transfer alone. IL-4 and IL-6 were higher in the IVIG group. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A trial of IVIG for JE in Nepal is feasible. IVIG may augment the development of neutralizing antibodies in JEV positive patients. IVIG appears an appealing option for JE treatment that warrants further study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01856205

A haemagglutination test for rapid detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2

Serological detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is essential for establishing rates of seroconversion in populations, and for seeking evidence for a level of antibody that may be protective against COVID-19 disease. Several high-performance commercial tests have been described, but these require centralised laboratory facilities that are comparatively expensive, and therefore not available universally. Red cell agglutination tests do not require special equipment, are read by eye, have short development times, low cost and can be applied at the Point of Care. Here we describe a quantitative Haemagglutination test (HAT) for the detection of antibodies to the receptor binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The HAT has a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 99% for detection of antibodies after a PCR diagnosed infection. We will supply aliquots of the test reagent sufficient for ten thousand test wells free of charge to qualified research groups anywhere in the world

New Frontiers-class Uranus Orbiter: Exploring the feasibility of achieving multidisciplinary science with a mid-scale mission

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Comparison of UK paediatric SARS-CoV-2 admissions across the first and second pandemic waves

Background: We hypothesised that theclinical characteristics of hospitalised children and young people(CYP) with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK second wave (W2) would differ from the firstwave (W1) due to the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), school reopening and relaxation of shielding. Methods: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study of patients <19 years hospitalised in the UK with SARS-CoV-2 between 17/01/20 and 31/01/21. Clinical characteristics were compared between W1 and W2 (W1 = 17/01/20-31/07/20,W2 =01/08/20-31/01/21). Results: 2044 CYP < 19 years from 187 hospitals. 427/2044 (20.6%) with asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from main analysis. 16.0% (248/1548) of symptomatic CYP were admitted to critical care and 0.8% (12/1504) died. 5.6% (91/1617) of symptomatic CYP had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). After excluding CYP with MIS-C, patients in W2 had lower Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS, composite vital sign score), lower antibiotic use and less respiratory and cardiovascular support than W1. The proportion of CYP admitted to critical care was unchanged. 58.0% (938/1617) of symptomatic CYP had no reported comorbidity. Patients without co-morbidities were younger (42.4%, 398/938, <1 year), had lower PEWS, shorter length of stay and less respiratory support. Conclusions: We found no evidence of increased disease severity in W2 vs W1. A large proportion of hospitalised CYP had no comorbidity. Impact: No evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 admissions amongst children and young people (CYP) in the second vs first wave in the UK, despite changes in variant, relaxation of shielding and return to face-to-face schooling.CYP with no comorbidities made up a significant proportion of those admitted. However, they had shorter length of stays and lower treatment requirements than CYP with comorbidities once those with MIS-C were excluded.At least 20% of CYP admitted in this cohort had asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection.This paper was presented to SAGE to inform CYP vaccination policy in the UK

Tidal Heating: Lessons from Io and the Jovian System - Final Report

Tidal heating is key to the evolution and habitability of many worlds across our solar system and beyond. However, there remain fundamental gaps in our understanding of tidal heating and coupled orbital evolution, which motivated a Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) workshop on this topic. The Cassini mission has led to many recent results about ocean worlds and what may become a new paradigm for understanding orbital evolution with tidal heating, the model of resonance locking in the parent planet (Fuller et al., 2016). Resonance locking explains how subsurface oceans may persist over much of geologic time, even in tiny Enceladus. The discovery of the Laplace resonance of Io, Europa, and Ganymede orbiting Jupiter led to the prediction of intense tidal heating of Io (Peale et al., 1979); this system provides the greatest potential for advances in the next few decades. Europa Clipper and JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) will provide in-depth studies of Europa and Ganymede in the 2030s. The easily observed heat flow of Io, from hundreds of continually erupting volcanoes, makes it an ideal target for further investigation, and the missing link—along with missions in development—to understand the Laplace system. We identified five key questions to drive future research and exploration: (Q1) What do volcanic eruptions tell us about the interiors of tidally heated bodies (e.g., Io, Enceladus, and perhaps Europa and Triton)? (Q2) How is tidal dissipation partitioned between solid and liquid materials? (Q3) Does Io have a melt-rich layer, or “magma ocean”, that mechanically decouples the lithosphere from the deeper interior? (Q4) Is the Jupiter/Laplace system in equilibrium (i.e., does the satellite’s heat output equal the rate at which energy is generated)? (Q5) Can stable isotope measurements inform long-term evolution of tidally heated bodies? The most promising avenues to address these questions include a new spacecraft mission making close flybys of Io, missions orbiting and landing on key worlds such as Europa and Enceladus, technology developments to enable advanced techniques, closer coupling between laboratory experiments and tidal heating theory, and advances in Earth-based telescopic observations of solar system and extrasolar planets and moons. All of these avenues would benefit from technological developments. An Io mission should: characterize volcanic processes (Q1); test interior models via a set of geophysical measurements coupled with laboratory experiments and theory (Q2 and Q3); measure the rate of Io’s orbital migration (to complement similar measurements expected at Europa and Ganymede) to determine if the Laplace resonance is in equilibrium (Q4); and determine neutral compositions and measure stable isotopes in Io’s atmosphere and plumes (Q5). No new technologies are required for such an Io mission following advances in radiation design and solar power realized for Europa Clipper and JUICE. Seismology is a promising avenue for future exploration, either from landers or remote laser reflectometry, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) could be revolutionary on these active worlds, but advanced power systems plus lower mass and power-active instruments are needed for operation in the outer solar system

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks