Dense sampling of ethnic groups within African countries reveals fine-scale genetic structure and extensive historical admixture

Previous studies have highlighted how African genomes have been shaped by a complex series of historical events. Despite this, genome-wide data have only been obtained from a small proportion of present-day ethnolinguistic groups. By analyzing new autosomal genetic variation data of 1333 individuals from over 150 ethnic groups from Cameroon, Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sudan, we demonstrate a previously underappreciated fine-scale level of genetic structure within these countries, for example, correlating with historical polities in western Cameroon. By comparing genetic variation patterns among populations, we infer that many northern Cameroonian and Sudanese groups share genetic links with multiple geographically disparate populations, likely resulting from long-distance migrations. In Ghana and Nigeria, we infer signatures of intermixing dated to over 2000 years ago, corresponding to reports of environmental transformations possibly related to climate change. We also infer recent intermixing signals in multiple African populations, including Congolese, that likely relate to the expansions of Bantu language-speaking peoples

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Evaluation And Adjustment Of The 2008 Census Data

No Worldcat record availabl

Photocatalytic Activity of Silicon Nanowires Decorated with PbS Nanoparticles Deposited by Pulsed Laser Deposition for Efficient Wastewater Treatment

The present work aims to study the photocatalytic properties of nanohybrids composed of silicon nanowires (SiNWs) decorated with PbS nanoparticles (NPs). The elaborated material was intended to be utilized in wastewater treatment. The SiNWs were elaborated from the Metal Assisted Chemical Etching route (MACE), while the PbS NPs were deposited at room temperature onto SiNWs using the pulsed laser deposition (PLD) technique. The influence of decorating SiNWs (having different lengths) with PbS-NPs on their structural, morphological, optoelectronic, and photocatalytic properties was scrutinized. PbS/SiNWs nanohybrids exhibited enhanced photocatalytic degradation towards Black Amido (BA) dye for 20 µm SiNWs length and 0.2% of BA volume concentration. These optimized conditions may insinuate that this nanocomposite-like structure is a promising efficient photocatalytic systems contender, cost-effective, and recyclable for organic compound purification from wastewaters

Trifluoromethylated Flavonoid-Based Isoxazoles as Antidiabetic and Anti-Obesity Agents: Synthesis, In Vitro α-Amylase Inhibitory Activity, Molecular Docking and Structure–Activity Relationship Analysis

Diabetes mellitus is a major health problem globally. The management of carbohydrate digestion provides an alternative treatment. Flavonoids constitute the largest group of polyphenolic compounds, produced by plants widely consumed as food and/or used for therapeutic purposes. As such, isoxazoles have attracted the attention of medicinal chemists by dint of their considerable bioactivity. Thus, the main goal of this work was to discover new hybrid molecules with properties of both flavonoids and isoxazoles in order to control carbohydrate digestion. Moreover, the trifluoromethyl group is a key entity in drug development, due to its strong lipophilicity and metabolic stability. Therefore, the present work describes the condensation of a previously synthesized trifluoromethylated flavonol with different aryl nitrile oxides, affording 13 hybrid molecules indicated as trifluoromethylated flavonoid-based isoxazoles. The structures of the obtained compounds were deduced from by 1H NMR, 13C NMR, and HRMS analysis. The 15 newly synthesized compounds inhibited the activity of α-amylase with an efficacy ranging from 64.5 ± 0.7% to 94.7 ± 1.2% at a concentration of 50 μM, and with IC50 values of 12.6 ± 0.2 μM–27.6 ± 1.1 μM. The most effective compounds in terms of efficacy and potency were 3b, 3h, 3j, and 3m. Among the new trifluoromethylated flavonoid-based isoxazoles, the compound 3b was the most effective inhibitor of α-amylase activity (PI = 94.7 ± 1.2% at 50 μM), with a potency (IC50 = 12.6 ± 0.2 μM) similar to that of the positive control acarbose (IC50 = 12.4 ± 0.1 μM). The study of the structure–activity relationship based on the molecular docking analysis showed a low binding energy, a correct mode of interaction in the active pocket of the target enzyme, and an ability to interact with the key residues of glycosidic cleavage (GLU-230 and ASP-206), explaining the inhibitory effects of α-amylase established by several derivatives

Dense sampling of ethnic groups within African countries reveals fine-scale genetic structure and extensive historical admixture

Previous studies have highlighted how African genomes have been shaped by a complex series of historical events. Despite this, genome-wide data have only been obtained from a small proportion of present-day ethnolinguistic groups. By analyzing new autosomal genetic variation data of 1333 individuals from over 150 ethnic groups from Cameroon, Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sudan, we demonstrate a previously underappreciated fine-scale level of genetic structure within these countries, for example, correlating with historical polities in western Cameroon. By comparing genetic variation patterns among populations, we infer that many northern Cameroonian and Sudanese groups share genetic links with multiple geographically disparate populations, likely resulting from long-distance migrations. In Ghana and Nigeria, we infer signatures of intermixing dated to over 2000 years ago, corresponding to reports of environmental transformations possibly related to climate change. We also infer recent intermixing signals in multiple African populations, including Congolese, that likely relate to the expansions of Bantu language-speaking peoples

Global perspective of familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cross-sectional study from the EAS Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC)

none724siBackground The European Atherosclerosis Society Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC) global registry provides a platform for the global surveillance of familial hypercholesterolaemia through harmonisation and pooling of multinational data. In this study, we aimed to characterise the adult population with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia and described how it is detected and managed globally.Methods Using FHSC global registry data, we did a cross-sectional assessment of adults (aged 18 years or older) with a clinical or genetic diagnosis of probable or definite heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia at the time they were entered into the registries. Data were assessed overall and by WHO regions, sex, and index versus non-index cases.Findings Of the 61 612 individuals in the registry, 42 167 adults (21 999 [53.6%] women) from 56 countries were included in the study. Of these, 31 798 (75.4%) were diagnosed with the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network criteria, and 35 490 (84.2%) were from the WHO region of Europe. Median age of participants at entry in the registry was 46.2 years (IQR 34.3-58.0); median age at diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia was 44.4 years (32.5-56.5), with 40.2% of participants younger than 40 years when diagnosed. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors increased progressively with age and varied by WHO region. Prevalence of coronary disease was 17.4% (2.1% for stroke and 5.2% for peripheral artery disease), increasing with concentrations of untreated LDL cholesterol, and was about two times lower in women than in men. Among patients receiving lipid-lowering medications, 16 803 (81.1%) were receiving statins and 3691 (21.2%) were on combination therapy, with greater use of more potent lipid-lowering medication in men than in women. Median LDL cholesterol was 5.43 mmol/L (IQR 4.32-6.72) among patients not taking lipid-lowering medications and 4.23 mmol/L (3.20-5.66) among those taking them. Among patients taking lipid-lowering medications, 2.7% had LDL cholesterol lower than 1.8 mmol/L; the use of combination therapy, particularly with three drugs and with proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors, was associated with a higher proportion and greater odds of having LDL cholesterol lower than 1.8 mmol/L. Compared with index cases, patients who were non-index cases were younger, with lower LDL cholesterol and lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases (all p<0.001).Interpretation Familial hypercholesterolaemia is diagnosed late. Guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol concentrations are infrequently achieved with single-drug therapy. Cardiovascular risk factors and presence of coronary disease were lower among non-index cases, who were diagnosed earlier. Earlier detection and greater use of combination therapies are required to reduce the global burden of familial hypercholesterolaemia. Copyright (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.mixedVallejo-Vaz, Antonio J.; Stevens, Christophe A.T.; Lyons, Alexander R.M.; Dharmayat, Kanika I.; Freiberger, Tomas; Hovingh, G. Kees; Mata, Pedro; Raal, Frederick J.; Santos, Raul D.; Soran, Handrean; Watts, Gerald F.; Abifadel, Marianne; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.; Alhabib, Khalid F.; Alkhnifsawi, Mutaz; Almahmeed, Wael; Alnouri, Fahad; Alonso, Rodrigo; Al-Rasadi, Khalid; Al-Sarraf, Ahmad; Al-Sayed, Nasreen; Araujo, Francisco; Ashavaid, Tester F.; Banach, Maciej; Béliard, Sophie; Benn, Marianne; Binder, Christoph J.; Bogsrud, Martin P.; Bourbon, Mafalda; Chlebus, Krzysztof; Corral, Pablo; Davletov, Kairat; Descamps, Olivier S.; Durst, Ronen; Ezhov, Marat; Gaita, Dan; Genest, Jacques; Groselj, Urh; Harada-Shiba, Mariko; Holven, Kirsten B.; Kayikcioglu, Meral; Khovidhunkit, Weerapan; Lalic, Katarina; Latkovskis, Gustavs; Laufs, Ulrich; Liberopoulos, Evangelos; Lima-Martinez, Marcos M.; Lin, Jie; Maher, Vincent; Marais, A. David; März, Winfried; Mirrakhimov, Erkin; Miserez, André R.; Mitchenko, Olena; Nawawi, Hapizah; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Panayiotou, Andrie G.; Paragh, György; Petrulioniene, Zaneta; Pojskic, Belma; Postadzhiyan, Arman; Raslova, Katarina; Reda, Ashraf; Reiner, Željko; Sadiq, Fouzia; Sadoh, Wilson Ehidiamen; Schunkert, Heribert; Shek, Aleksandr B.; Stoll, Mario; Stroes, Erik; Su, Ta-Chen; Subramaniam, Tavintharan; Susekov, Andrey V.; Tilney, Myra; Tomlinson, Brian; Truong, Thanh Huong; Tselepis, Alexandros D.; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Vázquez Cárdenas, Alejandra; Viigimaa, Margus; Wang, Luya; Yamashita, Shizuya; Kastelein, John J.P.; Bruckert, Eric; Vohnout, Branislav; Schreier, Laura; Pang, Jing; Ebenbichler, Christoph; Dieplinger, Hans; Innerhofer, Reinhold; Winhofer-Stöckl, Yvonne; Greber-Platzer, Susanne; Krychtiuk, Konstantin; Speidl, Walter; Toplak, Hermann; Widhalm, Kurt; Stulnig, Thomas; Huber, Kurt; Höllerl, Florian; Rega-Kaun, Gersina; Kleemann, Lucas; Mäser, Martin; Scholl-Bürgi, Sabine; Säly, Christoph; Mayer, Florian J.; Sablon, Gaelle; Tarantino, Eric; Nzeyimana, Charlotte; Pojskic, Lamija; Sisic, Ibrahim; Nalbantic, Azra D.; Jannes, Cinthia E.; Pereira, Alexandre C.; Krieger, Jose E.; Petrov, Ivo; Goudev, Assen; Nikolov, Fedya; Tisheva, Snejana; Yotov, Yoto; Tzvetkov, Ivajlo; Baass, Alexis; Bergeron, Jean; Bernard, Sophie; Brisson, Diane; Brunham, Liam R.; Cermakova, Lubomira; Couture, Patrick; Francis, Gordon A.; Gaudet, Daniel; Hegele, Robert A.; Khoury, Etienne; Mancini, G.B. John; McCrindle, Brian W.; Paquette, Martine; Ruel, Isabelle; Cuevas, Ada; Asenjo, Sylvia; Wang, Xumin; Meng, Kang; Song, Xiantao; Yong, Qiang; Jiang, Tao; Liu, Ziyou; Duan, Yanyu; Hong, Jing; Ye, Pucong; Chen, Yan; Qi, Jianguang; Liu, Zesen; Li, Yuntao; Zhang, Chaoyi; Peng, Jie; Yang, Ya; Yu, Wei; Wang, Qian; Yuan, Hui; Cheng, Shitong; Jiang, Long; Chong, Mei; Jiao, Jian; Wu, Yue; Wen, Wenhui; Xu, Liyuan; Zhang, Ruiying; Qu, Yichen; He, Jianxun; Fan, Xuesong; Wang, Zhenjia; Chow, Elaine; Pećin, Ivan; Perica, Dražen; Symeonides, Phivos; Vrablik, Michal; Ceska, Richard; Soska, Vladimir; Tichy, Lukas; Adamkova, Vera; Franekova, Jana; Cifkova, Renata; Kraml, Pavel; Vonaskova, Katerina; Cepova, Jana; Dusejovska, Magdalena; Pavlickova, Lenka; Blaha, Vladimir; Rosolova, Hana; Nussbaumerova, Barbora; Cibulka, Roman; Vaverkova, Helena; Cibickova, Lubica; Krejsova, Zdenka; Rehouskova, Katerina; Malina, Pavel; Budikova, Milena; Palanova, Vaclava; Solcova, Lucie; Lubasova, Alena; Podzimkova, Helena; Bujdak, Juraj; Vesely, Jiri; Jordanova, Marta; Salek, Tomas; Urbanek, Robin; Zemek, Stanislav; Lacko, Jan; Halamkova, Hana; Machacova, Sona; Mala, Sarka; Cubova, Eva; Valoskova, Katerina; Burda, Lukas; Bendary, Ahmed; Daoud, Ihab; Emil, Sameh; Elbahry, Atef; Rafla, Samir; Sanad, Osama; Kazamel, Ghada; Ashraf, Mohamed; Sobhy, Mohamed; El-Hadidy, Amro; Shafy, Mohamed A.; Kamal, Saif; Bendary, Mohamed; Talviste, Grete; Angoulvant, Denis; Boccara, Franck; Cariou, Bertrand; Carreau, Valérie; Carrie, Alain; Charrieres, Sybil; Cottin, Yves; Di-Fillipo, Mathilde; Ducluzeau, Pierre H.; Dulong, Sonia; Durlach, Vincent; Farnier, Michel; Ferrari, Emile; Ferrieres, Dorota; Ferrieres, Jean; Gallo, Antonio; hankard, Regis; Inamo, Jocelyne; Lemale, Julie; Moulin, Philippe; Paillard, François; Peretti, Noel; Perrin, Agnès; Pradignac, Alain; Rabes, Jean P.; Rigalleau, Vincent; Sultan, Ariane; Schiele, François; Tounian, Patrick; Valero, René; Verges, Bruno; Yelnik, Cécile; Ziegler, Olivier; Haack, Ira A.; Schmidt, Nina; Dressel, Alexander; Klein, Isabel; Christmann, Jutta; Sonntag, Antonia; Stumpp, Christine; Boger, Diana; Biedermann, Dana; Usme, Monica M.N.; Beil, F. Ulrich; Klose, Gerald; König, Christel; Gouni-Berthold, Ioanna; Otte, Britta; Böll, Gereon; Kirschbaum, Anja; Merke, Jürgen; Scholl, Johannes; Segiet, Thomas; Gebauer, Marco; Predica, Florentina; Mayer, Manfred; Leistikow, Frank; Füllgraf-Horst, Sabine; Müller, Cornelius; Schüler, Melanie; Wiener, Judith; Hein, Konrad; Baumgartner, Peter; Kopf, Stefan; Busch, Reinhold; Schömig, Michael; Matthias, Stephan; Allendorf-Ostwald, Nicole; Fink, Bruno; Böhm, Dieter; Jäkel, Alexander; Koschker, Ann-Cathrin; Schweizer, Rüdiger; Vogt, Anja; Parhofer, Klaus; König, Wolfgang; Reinhard, Wibke; Bäßler, Andrea; Stadelmann, Alexander; Schrader, Volker; Katzmann, Julius; Tarr, Adrienne; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Kassner, Ursula; Paulsen, Gerret; Homberger, Jürgen; Zemmrich, Claudia; Seeger, Wolfgang; Biolik, Kathrin; Deiss, Dorothee; Richter, Corinna; Pantchechnikova, Elina; Dorn, Elena; Schatz, Ulrike; Julius, Ulrich; Spens, Antje; Wiesner, Tobias; Scholl, Michael; Rizos, Christos V.; Sakkas, Nikolaos; Elisaf, Moses; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Rallidis, Loukianos; Kotsis, Vasileios; Doumas, Michalis; Athyros, Vasileios; Skalidis, Emmanouil; Kolovou, Genovefa; Garoufi, Anastasia; Bilianou, Eleni; Koutagiar, Iosif; Agapakis, Dimitrios; Kiouri, Estela; Antza, Christina; Katsiki, Niki; Zacharis, Evangelos; Attilakos, Achilleas; Sfikas, George; Koumaras, Charalambos; Anagnostis, Panagiotis; Anastasiou, Georgia; Liamis, George; Koutsogianni, Amalia-Despoina; Karányi, Zsolt; Harangi, Mariann; Bajnok, László; Audikovszky, Mária; Márk, László; Benczúr, Béla; Reiber, István; Nagy, Gergely; Nagy, András; Reddy, Lakshmi L.; Shah, Swarup A.V.; Ponde, Chandrashekhar K.; Dalal, Jamshed J.; Sawhney, Jitendra P.S.; Verma, Ishwar C.; Altaey, Mays; Al-Jumaily, Khalid; Rasul, Dilshad; Abdalsahib, Ali F.; Jabbar, Amer A.; Al-ageedi, Mohanad; Agar, Ruth; Cohen, Hofit; Ellis, Avishay; Gavishv, Dov; Harats, Dror; Henkin, Yaacov; Knobler, Hila; Leavit, Leah; Leitersdorf, Eran; Rubinstein, Ardon; Schurr, Daniel; Shpitzen, Shoshi; Szalat, Auryan; Casula, Manuela; Zampoleri, Veronica; Gazzotti, Marta; Olmastroni, Elena; Sarzani, Riccardo; Ferri, Claudio; Repetti, Elena; Sabbà, Carlo; Bossi, Antonio Carlo; Borghi, Claudio; Muntoni, Sandro; Cipollone, Francesco; Purrello, Francesco; Pujia, Arturo; Passaro, Angelina; Marcucci, Rossella; Pecchioli, Valerio; Pisciotta, Livia; Mandraffino, Giuseppe; Pellegatta, Fabio; Mombelli, Giuliana; Branchi, Adriana; Fiorenza, Anna Maria; Pederiva, Cristina; Werba, Josè Pablo; Parati, Gianfranco; Carubbi, Francesca; Iughetti, Lorenzo; Iannuzzi, Arcangelo; Iannuzzo, Gabriella; Calabrò, Paolo; Averna, Maurizio; Biasucci, Giacomo; Zambon, Sabina; Roscini, Anna Rita; Trenti, Chiara; Arca, Marcello; Federici, Massimo; Del Ben, Maria; Bartuli, Andrea; Giaccari, Andrea; Pipolo, Antonio; Citroni, Nadia; Guardamagna, Ornella; Bonomo, Katia; Benso, Andrea; Biolo, Gianni; Maroni, Lorenzo; Lupi, Alessandro; Bonanni, Luca; Zenti, Maria Grazia; Matsuki, Kota; Hori, Mika; Ogura, Masatsune; Masuda, Daisaku; Kobayashi, Takuya; Nagahama, Kumiko; Al-Jarallah, Mohammed; Radovic, Mirjana; Lunegova, Olga; Bektasheva, Erkayim; Khodzhiboboev, Elyor; Erglis, Andrejs; Gilis, Dainus; Nesterovics, Georgijs; Saripo, Vita; Meiere, Ruta; Upena-RozeMicena, Arta; Terauda, Elizabete; Jambart, Selim; Khoury, Petra E.; Elbitar, Sandy; Ayoub, Carine; Ghaleb, Youmna; Aliosaitiene, Urte; Kutkiene, Sandra; Kasim, Noor A.M.; Nor, Noor S.M.; Ramli, Anis S.; Razak, Suraya A.; Al-Khateeb, Alyaa; Kadir, Siti H.S.A.; Muid, Suhaila A.; Rahman, Thuhairah A.; Kasim, Sazzli S.; Radzi, Ahmad B.M.; Ibrahim, Khairul S.; Razali, Salmi; Ismail, Zaliha; Ghani, Rohana A.; Hafidz, Muhammad I.A.; Chua, Ang L.; Rosli, Marshima M.; Annamalai, Muthukkaruppan; Teh, Lay K.; Razali, Rafezah; Chua, Yung A.; Rosman, Azhari; Sanusi, Abdul R.; Murad, Nor A.A.; Jamal, A. Rahman A.; Nazli, Sukma A.; Razman, Aimi Z.; Rosman, Norhidayah; Rahmat, Radzi; Hamzan, Nur S.; Azzopardi, C.; Mehta, Roopa; Martagon, Alexandro J.; Ramirez, Gabriela A.G.; Villa, Neftali E.A.; Vazquez, Arsenio V.; Elias-Lopez, Daniel; Retana, Gustavo G.; Rodriguez, Betsabel; Macías, Jose J.C.; Zazueta, Alejandro R.; Alvarado, Rocio M.; Portano, Julieta D.M.; Lopez, Humberto A.; Sauque-Reyna, Leobardo; Herrera, Laura G.G.; Mendia, Luis E.S.; Aguilar, Humberto Garcia; Cooremans, Elizabeth R.; Aparicio, Berenice P.; Zubieta, Victoria M.; Gonzalez, Perla A.C.; Ferreira-Hermosillo, Aldo; Portilla, Nacu C.; Dominguez, Guadalupe J.; Garcia, Alinna Y.R.; Cazares, Hector E.A.; Gonzalez, Jesus R.; Valencia, Carla V.M.; Padilla, Francisco G.; Prado, Ramon M.; De los Rios Ibarra, Manuel O.; Villicaña, Ruy D.A.; Rivera, Karina J.A.; Carrera, Ricardo A.; Alvarez, Jose A.; Martinez, Jose C.A.; de los Reyes Barrera Bustillo, Manuel; Vargas, Gonzalo C.; Chacon, Roberto C.; Andrade, Mario H.F.; Ortega, Ashanty F.; Alcala, Hector G.; de Leon, Laura E.G.; Guzman, Berenice G.; Garcia, Jose J.G.; Cuellar, Juan C.G.; Cruz, Jose R.G.; Garcia, Anell Hernandez; Almada, Jesus R.H.; Herrera, Ursulo J.; Sobrevilla, Fabiola L.; Rodriguez, Eduardo M.; Sibaja, Cristina M.; Rodriguez, Alma B.M.; Oyervides, Jose C.M.; Vazquez, Daniel I.P.; Rodriguez, Eduardo A.R.; Osorio, Ma L.R.; Saucedo, Juan R.; Tamayo, Margarita T.; Talavera, Luis A.V.; Arroyo, Luis E.V.; Carrillo, Eloy A.Z.; Isara, Alphonsus; Obaseki, Darlington E.; Al-Waili, Khalid; Al-Zadjali, Fahad; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim; Al-Kindi, Mohammed; Al-Mukhaini, Suad; Al-Barwani, Hamida; Rana, Asim; Shah, Lahore S.U.; Starostecka, Ewa; Konopka, Agnieszka; Lewek, Joanna; Bartłomiejczyk, Marcin; Gąsior, Mariusz; Dyrbuś, Krzysztof; Jóźwiak, Jacek; Gruchała, Marcin; Pajkowski, Marcin; Romanowska-Kocejko, Marzena; Żarczyńska-Buchowiecka, Marta; Chmara, Magdalena; Wasąg, Bartosz; Parczewska, Aleksandra; Gilis-Malinowska, Natasza; Borowiec-Wolna, Justyna; Stróżyk, Aneta; Woś, Marlena; Michalska-Grzonkowska, Aleksandra; Medeiros, Ana M.; Alves, Ana C.; Silva, Francisco; Lobarinhas, Goreti; Palma, Isabel; de Moura, Jose P.; Rico, Miguel T.; Rato, Quitéria; Pais, Patrícia; Correia, Susana; Moldovan, Oana; Virtuoso, Maria J.; Salgado, Jose M.; Colaço, Ines; Dumitrescu, Andreea; Lengher, Calin; Mosteoru, Svetlana; Meshkov, Alexey; Ershova, Alexandra; Rozkova, Tatiana; Korneva, Victoria; Yu, Kuznetsova T.; Zafiraki, Vitaliy; Voevoda, Mikhail; Gurevich, Victor; Duplyakov, Dmitry; Ragino, Yulia; Safarova, Maya; Shaposhnik, Igor; Alkaf, Fahmi; Khudari, Alia; Rwaili, Nawal; Al-Allaf, Faisal; Alghamdi, Mohammad; Batais, Mohammed A.; Almigbal, Turky H.; Kinsara, Abdulhalim; AlQudaimi, Ashraf H.A.; Awan, Zuhier; Elamin, Omer A.; Altaradi, Hani; Rajkovic, Natasa; Popovic, Ljiljana; Singh, Sandra; Stosic, Ljubica; Rasulic, Iva; Lalic, Nebojsa M.; Lam, Carolyn; Le, Tan J.; Siang, Eric L.T.; Dissanayake, Sanjaya; I-Shing, Justin T.; Shyong, Tai E.; Jin, Terrance C.S.; Balinth, Karin; Buganova, Ingrid; Fabryova, Lubomira; Kadurova, Michaela; Klabnik, Alexander; Kozárová, Miriam; Sirotiakova, Jana; Battelino, Tadej; Kovac, Jernej; Mlinaric, Matej; Sustar, Ursa; Podkrajsek, Katarina T.; Fras, Zlatko; Jug, Borut; Cevc, Matija; Pilcher, Gillian J.; Blom, D.J.; Wolmarans, K.H.; Brice, B.C.; Muñiz-Grijalvo, Ovidio; Díaz-Díaz, Jose L.; de Isla, Leopoldo P.; Fuentes, Francisco; Badimon, Lina; Martin, François; Lux, Angela; Chang, Nien-Tzu; Ganokroj, Poranee; Akbulut, Mehmet; Alici, Gökhan; Bayram, Fahri; Can, Levent H.; Celik, Ahmet; Ceyhan, Ceyhun; Coskun, Fatma Y.; Demir, Mesut; Demircan, Sabri; Dogan, Volkan; Durakoglugil, Emre; Dural, Ibrahim E.; Gedikli, Omer; Hacioglu, Aysa; Ildizli, Muge; Kilic, Salih; Kirilmaz, Bahadir; Kutlu, Merih; Oguz, Aytekin; Ozdogan, Oner; Onrat, Ersel; Ozer, Savas; Sabuncu, Tevfik; Sahin, Tayfun; Sivri, Fatih; Sonmez, Alper; Temizhan, Ahmet; Topcu, Selim; Tuncez, Abdullah; Vural, Mirac; Yenercag, Mustafa; Yesilbursa, Dilek; Yigit, Zerrin; Yildirim, Aytul B.; Yildirir, Aylin; Yilmaz, Mehmet B.; Atallah, Bassam; Traina, Mahmoud; Sabbour, Hani; Hay, Dana A.; Luqman, Neama; Elfatih, Abubaker; Abdulrasheed, Arshad; Kwok, See; Oca, Nicolas D.; Reyes, Ximena; Alieva, Rano B.; Kurbanov, Ravshanbek D.; Hoshimov, Shavkat U.; Nizamov, Ulugbek I.; Ziyaeva, Adolat V.; Abdullaeva, Guzal J.; Do, Doan L.; Nguyen, Mai N.T.; Kim, Ngoc T.; Le, Thanh T.; Le, Hong A.; Tokgozoglu, Lale; Catapano, Alberico L.; Ray, Kausik K.Vallejo-Vaz, Antonio J.; Stevens, Christophe A. T.; Lyons, Alexander R. M.; Dharmayat, Kanika I.; Freiberger, Tomas; Hovingh, G. Kees; Mata, Pedro; Raal, Frederick J.; Santos, Raul D.; Soran, Handrean; Watts, Gerald F.; Abifadel, Marianne; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.; Alhabib, Khalid F.; Alkhnifsawi, Mutaz; Almahmeed, Wael; Alnouri, Fahad; Alonso, Rodrigo; Al-Rasadi, Khalid; Al-Sarraf, Ahmad; Al-Sayed, Nasreen; Araujo, Francisco; Ashavaid, Tester F.; Banach, Maciej; Béliard, Sophie; Benn, Marianne; Binder, Christoph J.; Bogsrud, Martin P.; Bourbon, Mafalda; Chlebus, Krzysztof; Corral, Pablo; Davletov, Kairat; Descamps, Olivier S.; Durst, Ronen; Ezhov, Marat; Gaita, Dan; Genest, Jacques; Groselj, Urh; Harada-Shiba, Mariko; Holven, Kirsten B.; Kayikcioglu, Meral; Khovidhunkit, Weerapan; Lalic, Katarina; Latkovskis, Gustavs; Laufs, Ulrich; Liberopoulos, Evangelos; Lima-Martinez, Marcos M.; Lin, Jie; Maher, Vincent; Marais, A. David; März, Winfried; Mirrakhimov, Erkin; Miserez, André R.; Mitchenko, Olena; Nawawi, Hapizah; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Panayiotou, Andrie G.; Paragh, György; Petrulioniene, Zaneta; Pojskic, Belma; Postadzhiyan, Arman; Raslova, Katarina; Reda, Ashraf; Reiner, Željko; Sadiq, Fouzia; Sadoh, Wilson Ehidiamen; Schunkert, Heribert; Shek, Aleksandr B.; Stoll, Mario; Stroes, Erik; Su, Ta-Chen; Subramaniam, Tavintharan; Susekov, Andrey V.; Tilney, Myra; Tomlinson, Brian; Truong, Thanh Huong; Tselepis, Alexandros D.; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Vázquez Cárdenas, Alejandra; Viigimaa, Margus; Wang, Luya; Yamashita, Shizuya; Kastelein, John J. P.; Bruckert, Eric; Vohnout, Branislav; Schreier, Laura; Pang, Jing; Ebenbichler, Christoph; Dieplinger, Hans; Innerhofer, Reinhold; Winhofer-Stöckl, Yvonne; Greber-Platzer, Susanne; Krychtiuk, Konstantin; Speidl, Walter; Toplak, Hermann; Widhalm, Kurt; Stulnig, Thomas; Huber, Kurt; Höllerl, Florian; Rega-Kaun, Gersina; Kleemann, Lucas; Mäser, Martin; Scholl-Bürgi, Sabine; Säly, Christoph; Mayer, Florian J.; Sablon, Gaelle; Tarantino, Eric; Nzeyimana, Charlotte; Pojskic, Lamija; Sisic, Ibrahim; Nalbantic, Azra D.; Jannes, Cinthia E.; Pereira, Alexandre C.; Krieger, Jose E.; Petrov, Ivo; Goudev, Assen; Nikolov, Fedya; Tisheva, Snejana; Yotov, Yoto; Tzvetkov, Ivajlo; Baass, Alexis; Bergeron, Jean; Bernard, Sophie; Brisson, Diane; Brunham, Liam R.; Cermakova, Lubomira; Couture, Patrick; Francis, Gordon A.; Gaudet, Daniel; Hegele, Robert A.; Khoury, Etienne; Mancini, G. B. John; Mccrindle, Brian W.; Paquette, Martine; Ruel, Isabelle; Cuevas, Ada; Asenjo, Sylvia; Wang, Xumin; Meng, Kang; Song, Xiantao; Yong, Qiang; Jiang, Tao; Liu, Ziyou; Duan, Yanyu; Hong, Jing; Ye, Pucong; Chen, Yan; Qi, Jianguang; Liu, Zesen; Li, Yuntao; Zhang, Chaoyi; Peng, Jie; Yang, Ya; Yu, Wei; Wang, Qian; Yuan, Hui; Cheng, Shitong; Jiang, Long; Chong, Mei; Jiao, Jian; Wu, Yue; Wen, Wenhui; Xu, Liyuan; Zhang, Ruiying; Qu, Yichen; He, Jianxun; Fan, Xuesong; Wang, Zhenjia; Chow, Elaine; Pećin, Ivan; Perica, Dražen; Symeonides, Phivos; Vrablik, Michal; Ceska, Richard; Soska, Vladimir; Tichy, Lukas; Adamkova, Vera; Franekova, Jana; Cifkova, Renata; Kraml, Pavel; Vonaskova, Katerina; Cepova, Jana; Dusejovska, Magdalena; Pavlickova, Lenka; Blaha, Vladimir; Rosolova, Hana; Nussbaumerova, Barbora; Cibulka, Roman; Vaverkova, Helena; Cibickova, Lubica; Krejsova, Zdenka; Rehouskova, Katerina; Malina, Pavel; Budikova, Milena; Palanova, Vaclava; Solcova, Lucie; Lubasova, Alena; Podzimkova, Helena; Bujdak, Juraj; Vesely, Jiri; Jordanova, Marta; Salek, Tomas; Urbanek, Robin; Zemek, Stanislav; Lacko, Jan; Halamkova, Hana; Machacova, Sona; Mala, Sarka; Cubova, Eva; Valoskova, Katerina; Burda, Lukas; Bendary, Ahmed; Daoud, Ihab; Emil, Sameh; Elbahry, Atef; Rafla, Samir; Sanad, Osama; Kazamel, Ghada; Ashraf, Mohamed; Sobhy, Mohamed; El-Hadidy, Amro; Shafy, Mohamed A.; Kamal, Saif; Bendary, Mohamed; Talviste, Grete; Angoulvant, Denis; Boccara, Franck; Cariou, Bertrand; Carreau, Valérie; Carrie, Alain; Charrieres, Sybil; Cottin, Yves; Di-Fillipo, Mathilde; Ducluzeau, Pierre H.; Dulong, Sonia; Durlach, Vincent; Farnier, Michel; Ferrari, Emile; Ferrieres, Dorota; Ferrieres, Jean; Gallo, Antonio; Hankard, Regis; Inamo, Jocelyne; Lemale, Julie; Moulin, Philippe; Paillard, François; Peretti, Noel; Perrin, Agnès; Pradignac, Alain; Rabes, Jean P.; Rigalleau, Vincent; Sultan, Ariane; Schiele, François; Tounian, Patrick; Valero, René; Verges, Bruno; Yelnik, Cécile; Ziegler, Olivier; Haack, Ira A.; Schmidt, Nina; Dressel, Alexander; Klein, Isabel; Christmann, Jutta; Sonntag, Antonia; Stumpp, Christine; Boger, Diana; Biedermann, Dana; Usme, Monica M. N.; Beil, F. Ulrich; Klose, Gerald; König, Christel; Gouni-Berthold, Ioanna; Otte, Britta; Böll, Gereon; Kirschbaum, Anja; Merke, Jürgen; Scholl, Johannes; Segiet, Thomas; Gebauer, Marco; Predica, Florentina; Mayer, Manfred; Leistikow, Frank; Füllgraf-Horst, Sabine; Müller, Cornelius; Schüler, Melanie; Wiener, Judith; Hein, Konrad; Baumgartner, Peter; Kopf, Stefan; Busch, Reinhold; Schömig, Michael; Matthias, Stephan; Allendorf-Ostwald, Nicole; Fink, Bruno; Böhm, Dieter; Jäkel, Alexander; Koschker, Ann-Cathrin; Schweizer, Rüdiger; Vogt, Anja; Parhofer, Klaus; König, Wolfgang; Reinhard, Wibke; Bäßler, Andrea; Stadelmann, Alexander; Schrader, Volker; Katzmann, Julius; Tarr, Adrienne; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Kassner, Ursula; Paulsen, Gerret; Homberger, Jürgen; Zemmrich, Claudia; Seeger, Wolfgang; Biolik, Kathrin; Deiss, Dorothee; Richter, Corinna; Pantchechnikova, Elina; Dorn, Elena; Schatz, Ulrike; Julius, Ulrich; Spens, Antje; Wiesner, Tobias; Scholl, Michael; Rizos, Christos V.; Sakkas, Nikolaos; Elisaf, Moses; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Rallidis, Loukianos; Kotsis, Vasileios; Doumas, Michalis; Athyros, Vasileios; Skalidis, Emmanouil; Kolovou, Genovefa; Garoufi, Anastasi

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p