Ensemble prediction using a new dataset of ECMWF initial states - OpenEnsemble 1.0

Ensemble prediction is an indispensable tool in modern numerical weather prediction (NWP). Due to its complex data flow, global medium-range ensemble prediction has almost exclusively been carried out by operational weather agencies to date. Thus, it has been very hard for academia to contribute to this important branch of NWP research using realistic weather models. In order to open ensemble prediction research up to the wider research community, we have recreated all 50 + 1 operational IFS ensemble initial states for OpenIFS CY43R3. The dataset (Open Ensemble 1.0) is available for use under a Creative Commons licence and is downloadable from an https server. The dataset covers 1 year (December 2016 to November 2017) twice daily. Downloads in three model resolutions (T(L)159, T(L)399, and T(L)639) are available to cover different research needs. An open-source workflow manager, called OpenEPS, is presented here and used to launch ensemble forecast experiments from the perturbed initial conditions. The deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of OpenIFS (cycle 40R1) using this new set of initial states is comprehensively evaluated. In addition, we present a case study of Typhoon Damrey from year 2017 to illustrate the new potential of being able to run ensemble forecasts outside of major global weather forecasting centres.Peer reviewe

Potential for increased connectivity between differentiated wolverine populations

Information on genetic population structure provides important knowledge for species conservation. Yet, few studies combine extensive genetic data to evaluate the structure and population dynamics of transboundary populations. Here we used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes to analyze the genetic population structure of wolverines (Gulo gulo) across Fennoscandia using a long-term monitoring dataset of 1708 individuals. Clear population subdivision was detected between the Scandinavian and the eastern Finnish population with a steep cline in the contact zone. While the Scandinavian population showed isolation by distance, large swaths of this population were characterized by high connectivity. Areas with high resistance to gene flow are likely explained by a combination of factors, such as historical isolation and founder effects. From a conservation perspective, promoting gene flow from the population in eastern Finland to the northwest of Scandinavia could augment the less variable Scandinavian population, and increase the demographic resilience of all subpopulations. Overall, the large areas of low resistance to gene flow suggest that transboundary cooperation with aligned actions of harvest and conflict mitigation could improve genetic connectivity across Finland, Sweden, and Norway

Determination of consensus among professionals for community safety terms through a Delphi study

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Crime Prevention and Community Safety. The definitive publisher-authenticated version 2013, 15(4), pp. 258-277 is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/cpcs.2013.9This article reports the findings from a study of Community Safety professionals (Academics, Policymakers and Practitioners), using the Delphi method to determine common definitions, if any, for Community Safety terms in current usage. The study investigated the differences in the way that the terms were used and understood by the members of the three groups. The study was predicated on the view that the groups of Community Safety professionals probably use the language of Community Safety in different ways. It is suggested that work in the field would benefit from a shared terminology, where the same term has the same meaning for different professional groups

Despite WT1 binding sites in the promoter region of human and mouse nucleoporin glycoprotein 210, WT1 does not influence expression of GP210

BACKGROUND: Glycoprotein 210 (GP210) is a transmembrane component of the nuclear pore complex of metazoans, with a short carboxyterminus protruding towards the cytoplasm. Its function is unknown, but it is considered to be a major structural component of metazoan nuclear pores. Yet, our previous findings showed pronounced differences in expression levels in embryonic mouse tissues and cell lines. In order to identify factors regulating GP210, the genomic organization of human GP210 was analyzed in silico. RESULTS: The human gene was mapped to chromosome 3 and consists of 40 exons spread over 102 kb. The deduced 1887 amino acid showed a high degree of alignment homology to previously reported orthologues. Experimentally we defined two transcription initiation sites, 18 and 29 bp upstream of the ATG start codon. The promoter region is characterized by a CpG island and several consensus binding motifs for gene regulatory transcription factors, including clustered sites associated with Sp1 and the Wilms' tumor suppressor gene zinc finger protein (WT1). In addition, distal to the translation start we found a (GT)n repetitive sequence, an element known for its ability to bind WT1. Homologies for these motifs could be identified in the corresponding mouse genomic region. However, experimental tetracycline dependent induction of WT1 in SAOS osteosarcoma cells did not influence GP210 transcription. CONCLUSION: Although mouse GP210 was identified as an early response gene during induced metanephric kidney development, and WT1 binding sites were identified in the promoter region of the human GP210 gene, experimental modulation of WT1 expression did not influence expression of GP210. Therefore, WT1 is probably not regulating GP210 expression. Instead, we suggest that the identified Sp binding sites are involved

Situational prevention and public transport crime in El Salvador

By any standard, there is a serious problem of crime on the public transport system in El Salvador. Guided by crime opportunity theory, this study undertook a rapid assessment of the problem consisting of a systematic observation of public transport in El Salvador and focus group discussions with passengers, bus operators, police and bus company owners/managers. The purposes were (1) to describe the main forms of crime and disorder afflicting the system, (2) to identify features of the system that contribute to the high levels of crime and disorder, and (3) to identify preventive measures, consistent with international experience. A program of situational crime prevention measures was identified which consisted of two main kinds: (1) measures relating to the operations of the bus system as a whole, intended to help to create a more orderly and secure transport environment and, (2) more specific measures designed to reduce opportunities for crimes occurring on buses or at bus stops, such as homicides, robberies, and sexual assaults on women. Future research and implementation of the preventive measures are discussed

Domestic burglary drop and the security hypothesis

This study examines the role of household security devices in producing the domestic burglary falls in England and Wales. It extends the study of the security hypothesis as an explanation for the 'crime drop'. Crime Survey for England and Wales data are analysed from 1992 to 2011/12 via a series of data signatures indicating the nature of, and change in, the relationship between security devices and burglary. The causal role of improved security is strongly indicated by a set of interlocking data signatures: rapid increases in the prevalence of security, particularly in the availability of combinations of the most effective devices (door and window locks plus security lighting); a steep decline in the pro-portion of households without security accompanied by disproportionate rises in their burglary risk; and the decline being solely in forced rather than unforced entries to households. The study concludes that there is strong evidence that security caused the decline in burglary in England and Wales in the 1990s. Testing the security hypothesis across a wider range of crime types, countries and forms of security than examined to date, is required both to understand the crime drop and to derive lessons for future crime prevention practice and policy

Changes in BMI-distribution from 1966–69 to 1995–97 in adolescents. The Young-HUNT study, Norway

Background The aim of this study was to explore changes in the BMI-distribution over time among Norwegian adolescents. Methods Height and weight were measured in standardised ways and BMI computed in 6774 adolescents 14–18 years who participated in the Young-HUNT study, the youth part of the Health-study of Nord-Trondelag County, Norway in 1995–97. The results were compared to data from 8378 adolescents, in the same age group and living in the same geographical region, collected by the National Health Screening Service in 1966–69. Results From 1966–69 to 1995–97 there was an increased dispersion and a two-sided change in the BMI-distribution. Mean BMI did not increase in girls aged 14–17, but increased significantly in 18 year old girls and in boys of all ages. In both sexes and all ages there was a significant increase in the upper percentiles, but also a trend towards a decrease in the lowest percentiles. Height and weight increased significantly in both sexes and all ages. Conclusion The increased dispersion of the BMI-distribution with a substantial increase in upper BMI-percentiles followed the same pattern seen in other European countries and the United States. The lack of increase in mean BMI among girls, and the decrease in the lowest percentiles has not been acknowledged in previous studies, and may call for attention

Genetic diversity is considered important but interpreted narrowly in country reports to the Convention on Biological Diversity: current actions and indicators are insufficient

20openInternationalInternational coauthor/editorInternational agreements such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) have committed to conserve, and sustainably and equitably use, biodiversity. The CBD is a vital instrument for global conservation because it guides 195 countries and the European Union in setting priorities and allocating resources, and requires regular reporting on progress. However, the CBD and similar policy agreements have often neglected genetic diversity.openHoban, Sean; Campbell, Catriona D.; da Silva, Jessica M.; Ekblom, Robert; Funk, W. Chris; Garner, Brittany A.; Godoy, José A.; Kershaw, Francine; MacDonald, Anna J.; Mergeay, Joachim; Minter, Melissa; O'Brien, David; Vinas, Ivan Paz; Pearson, Sarah K.; Pérez-Espona, Sílvia; Potter, Kevin M.; Russo, Isa-Rita M.; Segelbacher, Gernot; Vernesi, Cristiano; Hunter, Margaret E.Hoban, S.; Campbell, C.D.; da Silva, J.M.; Ekblom, R.; Funk, W.C.; Garner, B.A.; Godoy, J.A.; Kershaw, F.; Macdonald, A.J.; Mergeay, J.; Minter, M.; O'Brien, D.; Vinas, I.P.; Pearson, S.K.; Pérez-Espona, S.; Potter, K.M.; Russo, I.M.; Segelbacher, G.; Vernesi, C.; Hunter, M.E